Real Deal (Football) Report: Week 3 Recap

If last week was the story of close games and parity, this week was the story of two dominant teams that absolutely look like the Super Bowl favorites we thought they were.

Finish Reading: Real Deal (Football) Report: Week 3 Recap

The defending champion Detroit Lions went up against two undefeated teams in Atlanta and Cincinnati – and obliterated them both.  Detroit scored 290 points behind 41 points from Todd Gurley (Detroit draft pick), 38 points from Brandin Cooks (Detroit draft pick), 22 points from Tyreek Hill (Detroit draft pick), 26 points from Darius Slay (original franchise), 25 from Glover Quin (original franchise), and 19 points from Adoree Jackson (Detroit draft pick).  The Lions would have gone over 300 points had Jackson’s TD return not been called back.  Oh.  And they beat their undefeated opponents by a cool 183 points.

Not to be outdone, the Buffalo Bills dropped a 298.25 outing on New England and Denver, missing the 300 point mark by a single Anthony Brown tackle.  The Bills did it by a well rounded effort – literally 10/20 players scored between 17 and 32 points.  Led by, you guessed it, AJ Mother #($&)#(*$ Green (Trade), and supported by Doug Baldwin (Trade), Devonta Freeman (Trade), Rob Gronkowski (Trade), and Tyrod Taylor (Trade).  I suspect some of the defensive guys were also trades, but I haven’t done the legwork.

The moral of the story is crystal clear, and twofold.

  1. Detroit and Buffalo are insanely good and the clear favorites to meet in the Super Bowl
  2. DON’T trade Detroit draft picks, and DON’T trade Buffalo players.  If you do, you’re a bad person and contributing to the decline of society.

This has been your public service announcement from the competition committee 🙂

Games of the Week:

Atlanta Falcons 239, New Orleans Saints 220: Playoff teams, high scoring, tight games.  The Falcons may have lost an impossible game to Detroit, but they did play exceptionally well and needed it to hold off a game New Orleans team and retain control of the NFC South at 4-1.  The Falcons got an enormous 38 point burst from Chris Thompson, of all people, and a 19 point game from their kicker to overcome rough games from Jay Ajayi and Kelvin Benjamin.  The Saints kept it close via a pair of interceptions from newly acquired Terrance Mitchell, but were undone by a brutal injury to Darren Sproles, a couple of near misses on deep bombs from JJ Nelson, and a strong performance on Monday night from Carson Palmer.

Seattle Seahawks 229, Tennessee Titans 220: This one is simple.  A combined 80 points from Russell Wilson and Sterling Shepherd give the Seahawks the victory by the narrowest of margins over AFC contender Tennessee.  The Titans got a strong (114 point) defensive game, and had to be feeling gratified as Odell Beckham finally broke out (29 points) and recently acquired Case Keenum justified his acquisition costs with 34 points.  The end was brutal, however, as a Giants receiver not named Odell Beckham took a 77 yard score to the house to provide the difference.  That’s a rough situation for a Giants fan who also owns the OTHER Giants receiver.

 

On the Rise:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Every year, we predict the Buccaneers are going to be in the mix.  Every year they struggle out of the gate as Carolina, Atlanta, and New Orleans distance themselves… Wait… what’s that you say?  Not this year?  Not this year.  The Bucs just quietly scored 218 points to knock off divisional rival Carolina by 5 and the upstart Vikings by 25.  Suddenly Tampa Bay is tied with Atlanta at 4-1 and feeling serious confidence in a disruptive Defense that just dropped 155 points in a well balanced effort where no single player scored less than 8 points and Jadeveon Clowney (finally!) went off for 31.  The offense is in rough shape.  But if that defense can keep on playing…

Pittsburgh Steelers: What a difference a week makes in Steel City.  The Steelers finally found their mojo in week 3, and just in time to go 2-0, knock off the scuffling Houston Texans, and move back into their accustomed position in first place.  Same as it ever was.  How did it happen?  Well, Le’Veon Bell finally showed up, Kenny Britt finally caught a pass, and DeForest Buckner finally made a play.  The scary part is that Pittsburgh still only got mediocre games from guys like Ben Roethlisberger and Jarvis Landry.  This thing might be on a steady climb.

New York Jets: My my my.  One week after being competitive and coming away with nothing to show for it, the Jets got back on the horse and delivered the first multi-win week in FRANCHISE HISTORY.  They are now 3-2 and are solidly ensconced in 2nd place in the East.  Yes, their opponents in week 3 have a combined 2-8 record.  Yes, it was literally ALL from Stefon Diggs (46 points) and DeMario Davis (26).  And yes they only scored 172 points.  But 2-0!  J-E-T-S!

Indianapolis Colts: Gotta go one extra here and give a shout out to Indy, who pulled out a 2-0 week with strong wins over both Cleveland and Baltimore.  After a brutal week one offensive performance, the Colts have moved up to a respectable mid-60s offense in both weeks 2 and 3, and investments in guys like Alvin Kamara and Bruce Ellington appear to be paying dividends.  It’s probably too much to ask for Indy to climb back into the mix, but a 2-0 week restores the Colts to the ranks of the respectable.

Honorable Mentions: Kansas City Chiefs, New York Giants, Oakland Raiders, Seattle Seahawks

Sliding Down:

Carolina Panthers: What just happened?  The 2-1 Panthers were engaged in a pair of close games with divisional rivals Tampa Bay and New Orleans as the Falcons were getting smashed by Detroit.  This is Carolina.  The result was an inevitable pair of victories which leave them at 4-1, tied for first, and bringing their intimidating moxie to bear against upstart Atlanta.  But something happened.  Instead of a huge push from DeMarcus Lawrence putting them over the top, it fell just short on Monday night, and the Panthers lost both divisional games by 5 and 7 points respectively.  Cam is struggling, the offensive depth isn’t quite there, and the Panthers are suddenly 2-3 and last place.  What is going on?

Houston Texans: Speaking of “what is going on”, the Texans have to feel totally shell-shocked.  A trendy Super Bowl pick at the beginning of the year, the Texans have scuffled to a 1-4 start, obviously suffering from a Super Bowl hangover.  It’s not disaster from any one player, it’s lethargy across the whole roster.  The highest individual performance was 15.5 points in week 3, and no offensive player even reached 15.  Trevor Siemian is hit or miss, Lamar Miller is mostly getting hit, and the big games of old just aren’t coming.  There’s still plenty of time, but with Jacksonville and Tennessee in the last double, Houston needs to get right soon.

The rest of the AFC North: We’ve already talked about Pittsburgh.  While the Steelers were rocketing back up the standings, the rest of the league was… struggling.  Cleveland, Baltimore, and Cincinnati went a combined 0-6.  Cincy fell from the ranks of the unbeaten, scoring only 167 points in twin losses to Detroit and Green Bay.  Cleveland also dropped a pair, scoring only 146 in rough losses to Indy (now with an offense!) and Chicago.  And not to be outdone, the to point strong Ravens laid a 119 point egg and got crushed by the Colts.  Mercy.  Three teams who had playoff aspirations from the best division in football just combined to average 144 points a piece.  Blech.  We’ll see if this fixes itself or not.

Dishonorable Mentions: Philadelphia Eagles, Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers (attaway, commish squad!)

 

Week 4 Games of the Week: One more double!

Atlanta Falcons vs. Buffalo Bills: Atlanta scored 240 points and got a loss against the undefeated juggernauts of the NFC, the Detroit Lions, and a strong win against Divisional rival Atlanta.  Their reward?  A game against the undefeated juggernauts of the AFC, the Buffalo Bills, and a tough game against divisional rival Tampa Bay.  No rest for the weary.  The Falcons do need Julio Jones to go off to a 70 point tune to have a chance in this one.  Buffalo has looked like a different team since week 1, following up a clunky 179 point opener with 264 and 298.  Scary.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The upstarts of the AFC South, both sitting pretty at 4-1.  That’s sort of where the comparison ends, though, as Atlanta has outscored Tampa Bay by 250 points thus far (50 points per game), and has the #2 point total in the league.  Unless Tampa finds its offense real fast (currently 31st in RDFL), Atlanta is going to be alone in first place, even with a potential loss to Buffalo.

New York Giants vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Here’s why.  The Bucs don’t just get the Falcons, they also get the Giants, who are quietly turning in their own superb season, going 4-1 and turning in a cool #3 in fantasy points scored.  And now they have a Rivers.  This could get bad.

Denver Broncos vs. Oakland Raiders: Don’t look now, but Denver is 3-2, just went over 200 points, and now has a Manning who now has a healthy Odell Beckham Jr.  Initial predictions had Oakland in the driver’s seat in the AFC West, but the Raiders are a Dez Bryant struggle inch on Monday night away from a loss to Washington and a 1-4 record, while the Broncos are at 3-2 and suddenly look pretty competitive.  We shall see.

Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams: I had to do a double check, but you know who else besides the Jets is 3-2 that is never 3-2?  The LA Rams.  They haven’t played all that well, and lack everything but a quarterback, but they have shots at Seattle and Dallas this week, and a good week could have them at 5-2.  Meanwhile, the Seahawks are sitting at 4-1 with games against Indy and the Rams.  They’d better win both, though, because the Arizona Cardinals are lurking with games against Washington and San Francisco – the league’s only two winless teams.

Good luck this week, everyone!  Enjoy the last double until week 12!

The Ultimate Draft: RDU Football 2017

2017 Real Deal Ultimate Football Draft Recap

Alright gents! It’s that time of year! We finally finished nearly two weeks of drafting and now I have to break down all of the madness and hope I don’t lose my hair in the process. While I wrote this more than 4,000-word breakdown, pre-season games happened and situations changed greatly. I make mention to a few but, for the most part, take this as a snapshot of where things stood immediately following the last pick.

The 2017 draft was a deep one, both in the NFL and in Real Deal. Starters were still being drafted in the 5th round, so most teams came away with guys that will help them now and in the future. You don’t have to squint too hard and see this draft as being a massive turning point in the league, especially with some teams working hard to consolidate as much of the talent available now as possible. If this draft turns out to be an all-timer, as some pundits have predicted, the fortunes of this portion of our game could have changed for all of us.
Without further ado, I present my draft grades and evaluation for Real Deal Ultimate Football 2017. I was going to do awards too, but this is already like 4,100 words.
Feel free to agree and email me praises. If you disagree, save it for the chat board ;).

Arizona Cardinals: B-

Best Move: Trading 1.11, 2.11, and 4.11 for Doug Martin, 2.1, and CHI 2018 1st and 3rd round picks

The Cards draft will be ultimately judged by Doug Martin. AZ got very good value in the future picks, not to mention a legitimate starter at a key position. Many are down on Martin this season, and this trade reflects his depressed value. But if Martin returns anywhere near to form once he is reinstated, Zona’s draft will be looked upon very favorably. Kamara at 2.1 could prove to be a good value and several later picks have great upside, but this draft was about Martin.

Atlanta Falcons: A

Best Move: Dalvin Cook at 1.8

I love this draft. I’m super jealous. Getting Dalvin Cook at 8th overall is an unbelievably steal. I would have never expected it to fall that way, but I’m sure ATL is happy it did. And if that wasn’t good enough, Derek Barnett as the 5th pass rusher off the board, Marshon Lattimore and Budda Baker in the 3rd round, and Isaiah McKenzie in the 6th. The pieces are there to build a very successful team in the near future. Well done.

Carolina Panthers: D

Best Move: Malik Hooker could be good enough to make us forget CAR gave up a 5th rounder to move up one spot to get him.

Sorry bruh, but when you go into a draft with 5 picks and come out with only Malik Hooker, a 7th round wideout, and a 2018 3rd, you get a D.

Chicago Bears: B-

Best Move: Tre’Davious White at 3.1

I’m going to keep the commentary on Chicago’s effort to the draft itself, although special mention has to be made to basically compiling a standout defensive unit overnight by dealing 1.1 to TOR. Beyond that move, this is one of the bigger “upside” drafts. That can be said thanks to dealing Doug Martin and future premium picks for what ended up to be Patrick Mahomes, Jamaal Martin, and Dalvin Tomlinson, none of whom will likely make a start in 2017. And David Njoku is the biggest question mark of all, a physical freak who could blossom into the next great TE or fall into the same pit as Johnny Manziel, Justin Gilbert, and all the other failed Browns first rounders. Tre’Davious White in the 3rd was a great value, and there is a metric ton of talent here. But with all that talent comes one of the more risky drafts in the league.

Cincinnati Bengals: B+

Best Move: Deshaun Watson at 1.13

(I’ll keep it brief since this was my draft, but I’m overall happy with how it turned out) Moving up to grab their guy in Watson, especially with Alex Smith living on borrowed time in KC, may turn out to be an inspired move. Allen and Shaheen represent good value where they went, and talented players like Sidney Jones (despite the redshirt season), Tim Williams, and Fabian Moreau further bolster the future prospects of a team looking to compete.

Cleveland Browns: B-

Best Move: Haason Reddick at 2.7

Cleveland was one of the few squads that went chalk, keeping and using all their picks. No future draft capital, but no lost capital this season. CLE used those picks to get solid players up and down the lineup. John Ross is already making waves in Cincinnati, Chris Wormley figures to receive good workload in BAL, and Jordan Willis was a great value in the 4th round. My favorite was the Haason Reddick pick, the rare guy who will provide value in coverage and in the pass rush, was a steal at 2.7. Knocked them down from a “B” to a “B-“ only because they tried to draft CJ Spiller like fourteen times!! LM was very forgiving.

Dallas Cowboys: C

Best Move: Acquiring Sammy Watkins and Alshon Jeffrey (although the cost was huge)

The draft was not a draft for Dallas. The picks that they held for this year and the next two years were deemed of lesser value than the chance to win today. No criticism here, but that’s the truth of the matter. The Cowboys came out of this year’s draft a markedly better team than they were going in. I hate the cost of Sammy Watkins, but they ended up with two big time WR and the top RB in the draft. They will rank highly in the coming season outlook article. But if bad luck strikes, Dallas won’t have the ability to retool in the next two seasons. Championship or bust!

Denver Broncos: C-

Best Move: Ahkello Witherspoon at 4.19

Without a first or second round draft pick, it was going to be tough to make too much noise. But IMO, Denver didn’t end up with a lot of help. Marcus Williams is a talented guy, but isn’t projected to play much early on and may have been a bit of a reach. Ahkello Witherspoon was good value at 4.19. The fact that Denver didn’t come away with a DE, even just for depth, loses them a half grade for me.

Detroit Lions: B-

Best Move: Reuben Foster at 1.16

The Cardiac Cats had an interesting draft. They made a few deals to net them additional draft capital, moving down in the 1st and grabbing two 4s for a 3rd next year. They used that capital to throw a few darts at the board, using the two 4s they got from Carolina to add not one but two QBs. Foster at 1.16 and Rivers at 2.13 were very solid picks and, while he may have been a slight reach, Taylor has a real chance to have an impact in San Francisco. Anzalone is a nice later round pick, and Donnel Pumphrey may be working his way into reps sooner than later. All in all, a nice collection of talent that fits nicely with the rest of the roster, and the PS guys represent a mixed bag of talent without much current opportunity.

Green Bay Packers: C

Best Move: Vince Biegel at 5.10

The Pack went all D with their draft, starting off with Marcus Maye with their first pick at 3.18. They ended up with two safeties, two corners, a linebacker, and a defensive tackle late. No offense, but I wasn’t a fan of their first pick. Marcus Maye certainly has a chance to produce, but safety was the lowest position of need on that side of the ball. Starting corners, including Gareon Conley and GB’s own Kevin King, were still available. They addressed the need in the 4th with Quincy Wilson, but there is less upside there. The Pack didn’t miss entirely though, nabbing a great value in pass rushing LB Vince Biegel in the 5th. Biegel was a value in the real draft as well, and fills a need for depth at the position.

Houston Texans: B-

Best Move: Acquiring Washington’s 2018 1st and 4.17 in exchange for 2.3 and their own 5th in 2018.

Houston’s draft is defined by the decision to deal the third overall pick for CJ Prosise and, most crucially, Blake Bortles. It’s the kind of trade that we’ll be looking at in two or three years and either lauding the Texans for such a bold move… or shaking our heads. There’s not really an in-between. Headliner aside, there were some really savvy moves here (curiously all with the Skins). Trading away 2.3, 4.3, and a 2018 5th for 4.17, Washington’s 2018 1st,3rd, and 2019 5th in two separate deals are the stuff Belichick’s wet dreams are made of. As far as actual players go, there was good value in Taywon Taylor at 3.3, Jake Butt at 4.17, and Tarell Basham at 5.17. All of these players should make an impact immediately, and Taylor even has a chance to make a push for HOU’s flex spot in the near future. I dinged him a half grade because I’m not a fan of Bortles, but if you are a believer consider this a “B+”.

Indianapolis Colts: B+

Best Move: Obi Melifonwu at 2.15

Say this about the Colts’ draft: they were all about this year. Before the draft was over, the Blue Horseshoe had sent two 2018 2nd and 4th rounders, a 2019 3rd , and Rishard Matthews for 1.24, 2.15, 3.9, 3.16, and another five later round picks. That’s quite a haul, and they flexed that muscle. Perine figures to be starting in Washington before long, Taco Charlton is a dynamic talent, and Obi Melifonwu could be the best pick of them all. I also loved getting Kendall Beckwith at 4.9, who enters the season the starting SAM on a dynamic defense in Tampa. Nabbing Teez Tabor all the way at 5.16 feels like icing on the cake. I don’t typically like trading away so many future assets, and I could whine about the value of some of the early rounders, but this is a very solid haul and gives Indy a very talented defense.

Los Angeles Rams: D

Best Move: Acquiring 2015 3rd rounder Chris Conley for 6.18, 6.21, and 7.21… I guess.

No offense to LAR, but this draft looked like it was run by the Rams’ real life brain trust. Granted, there wasn’t a lot to work with here, only coming into the draft with six picks total and just one before the 4th round. But coming away from what looks to be a deep draft with a 3rd string TE, and 3rd string RB, and a pair of 2015 draftees that have yet to look like anything more than rotational players is a tough sell. There were good players with starting roles left on the board, and LAR didn’t come away with any of them. Don’t mean to be rude, but… dude.

New England Patriots: A

Best Move: Myles Garrett at 1.21 (damn it)

I hate New England’s draft. And by “hate it”, I really mean “I love it and wish I did it”. Getting top overall pick Myles freaking Garrett at the 21st overall pick is such a steal it almost makes me mad. That pick going in reminds me of Tampa Bay’s GM telling the story of how every other team was trying to get their pick but they said “screw off” and nabbed O.J. Howard (go Bucs). On top of that killer pick, New England just cherry-picked great value picks. D’Onta Foreman might take the job from Lamar Miller’s corpse as soon as mid-season. Malik Hooker looks like the real deal*. And everyone let out an audible groan when Adoree’ Jackson was finally sniped at 3.5, ending all our dreams of him falling into our laps. Well done (I hate you).

*Note: Doesn’t account for Hooker’s season ending injury. Still a great pick.

New Orleans Saints: C+

Best Move: Cooper Kupp at 2.14

It may not have been a massive need, but New Orleans ensured they’ll run out a good set of WR for the foreseeable future. Mike Williams at 14th overall was a stretch for me, considering it’s possible he’ll miss most of if not all of the season; not to mention that I hate messing with back injuries. But if Williams becomes the guy the Chargers hope, it’ll be the worth the high pick and the redshirt season. Cooper Kupp at 2.14 was a great value, and he’ll likely end up the no. 2 wide out across from Sammy Watkins. Malik McDowell is extremely talented and only fell due to an offseason ATV injury, but he’s great value in the 5th. Evans and Walker didn’t represent good value for me. The biggest problem here is just that most of these guys won’t play much in 2017. Good talent, but will they play enough to be valuable to NO?

New York Giants: B

Best Move: Duke Riley at 4.20

The G-Men needed depth more than anything in this draft. They run out one of the more complete starting lineups in the league. Behind those starters leaves a bit to be desired. So it was pretty clear from 1.20 one that their goal was to find talented guys to fill out the roster at a couple of particularly shallow positions. Curtis Samuel and Carlos Henderson may have both been a little bit of a reach, but they walk into good situations that could improve their stock in a hurry. Jonnu Smith is blocked by Delanie Walker, but if he is as good as advertised could force TEN into two TE sets that would give him a chance to do some damage. It was a tough choice for best move, but I went with Duke Riley over acquiring DRC and a future 3rd. Riley expects to play frequently for a good Falcons D, and LB was one of the greater needs for the Blue. Dawaune Smoot and Trey Hendrickson were also some of my favorite late rounders.

New York Jets: B

Best Move: Evan Engram at 1.10

Jersey picks up TE (but really slot receiver if we’re all being honest with ourselves) Evan Engram with the 10th overall pick and top safety Jamal Adams at 15th. It’s a solid pair of potential playmakers that figure to be heavily involved immediately. Engram figures to hold a little more value than other TE prospects in our game as no expects him to block much. His job will be to line up near the line and be a sort of under slot receiver. To have a guy like that at TE could be very valuable. Gang Green gave up a third 1st to TOR, netting a 2018 4th, a 2019 1st and 3rd, rotational DE Kasim Edebali, and buy low Adrian Peterson. With guys like Myles Garrett still on the board, this was a risk. But if AP turns in a surprise season and that 2019 1st ends up being high, we might have a much more positive opinion of this draft.

Philadelphia Steel Men: B+

Best Move: T.J. Watt at 2.24

Philly gets a huge bump from making one of my favorite picks in the draft: T.J. Watt. To get a guy that brings that much athleticism to the table at 2.24 is beyond a steal. I’m probably playing my hand because I’d love to trade for him, but this was one of the better picks, fits, and values in the whole draft. The rest of the work done by the franchises of the state of Penn was good but not stand out. James Conner is a talented guy but a bit of a reach. Xavier Woods at 3.24 will likely compete for playing time in a weak Dallas secondary. Kittles was a big reach and has to play with Brian Hoyer. All in all, this draft is all about Watt. Philly did end up with some good future draft capital with minimal value lost as well, which bumps this draft up for me.

San Diego Chargers: A

Best Move: Solomon Thomas at 2.5

The Chargers earned their old moniker “Super” with this draft. The fact that they were able to earn one of my few A’s while also reaching for O.J. Howard at 1.4 is a testament to how many great talents and great values they picked up. Solomon Thomas is another one of my favorite picks, and that he was the 4th DE off the board is unreal. Thomas is projected to be a great all-around DE, able to produce points without big sack days. That level of consistency in our game is extremely valuable. To pair him with a guy like Takkarist McKinney, who’ll be more boom or bust, was really smart. Down the draft, Tyus Bowser should be in the running for playing time soon, DeDe Westbrook could be a spark plug for a Philly team that just lost Jordan Matthews, and Rasul Douglas was great value in the 7th. This was solid draft from top to bottom with no wasted picks.

San Francisco 49ers: B-

Best Move: Trading 1.23 in exchange for 2.19, TOR 2018 2nd, and TOR 2019 2nd

The Gold Diggers’ best moves were securing value for future years. In a trio of moves, Frisco came away with an additional 1st and 2nd in 2018, and two more 2nd rounders in 2019. It wasn’t cheap, but those moves were all about building more future value. For a team that expects to compete, this is smart. To a certain extent, the actual picks made were in this line of thinking. There was a clear priority to snag guys that don’t have a clear role now, but are expected to run with the job once they get their hands on it. Joe Williams at 1.12 is the most obvious example, playing behind a sometimes injury-riddled, sometimes ineffective Carlos Hyde. ArDarius Stewart currently has Christian Hackenberg throwing at him, so there’s precious little 2017 value to be had. Chris Godwin was never expected to be any more than the 4th wideout in Tampa. And Charles Harris, although he was a great value pick, will likely be a situational pass rusher ala’ Noah Spence in 2016 and Vic Beasley in 2015. This lack of present value knocks the draft down overall, but this is one of those grades that change big time by the end of 2020.

Seattle Seahawks: B+

Best Move: Christian McCaffery at 1.2

There may have been no bigger need met in this draft than McCaffery going to the largely RB-less Seahawks. The versatile back was in play for the 1st overall pick, and many of us even expected him to be gone before 2. But Seattle happily scooped up one of the most dynamic talents to come into the league. He walks into a fabulous situation too, with a former MVP quarterback and an option/short pass driven offense that is money in our game. Seattle followed that up by trading back into the first round and snagging potential stud linebacker Jarrad Davis from Detroit. Jabril Peppers, the positionless dynamo, went 2.2. This is a tough pick to evaluate, since we really don’t know where he’s going to settle. Right now, he’s a utility player in the truest sense. This pick may end up being brilliant, as Peppers has the speed and athleticism to produce whenever he’s on the field. He also may end up like a pitcher who hits really well: great for the real team, but not helpful for fantasy. In the meantime, I’m choosing to look at it as a smart pick. He’ll eventually settle somewhere on the field, and watch out when he does.

Tennessee Titans: C+

Best Move: JuJu Schuster-Smith at 2.9

I adjusted this write-up after learning of Spencer Ware’s likely season ending knee injury on Friday. I won’t be redoing my grade or evaluation much, but the massive swing in opinion on Kareem Hunt has to be addressed. When the once and future Oilers made this pick, I didn’t like it. A backup RB, even one who has a shot to take the job by midseason from a largely effective veteran, at 1.9 isn’t a great pick. But now that Hunt likely walks into the starting lineup, the pick looks pretty good. I maintain that I didn’t like the pick, but I can’t deny that Tennessee is sitting pretty with their 1st rounder. Schuster-Smith, whom the Steelers love and will get time in the slot next two Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant, was a great value at 2.9. He’s the kind of the guy that can have a bonkers year and take home the rookie crown. The rest of the Titans’ draft was ok, but no one really got me or their home team’s fan base excited.

Toronto Bills: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Best Move: Ummm… Mixon at 1.5? King at 3.22? I don’t know really.

I could write 3,000 words on this draft and still not have time to address everything that happened. I simply can’t break down this whole draft. I think one of the best summaries of what Toronto did here is by looking at their remaining picks in 2018 and 2019. Go ahead and look! I’ll wait. You’ll see there is one, single, lonely first rounder in 2018. Only the late Al Davis knows what it’s like to go this all-in on anything (those things by the way were speed in the draft and well done prime rib). We should’ve all known that this was going to be different right from the jump, when Corey Davis became the surprise 1.1. I had about seven guys I thought could go 1, and Davis wasn’t on the list. Mixon at 1.5 wasn’t a big reach considering how he’s viewed in fantasy circles, but if you say you expected Zay Jones to go in the top 10, you’re either lying or your Toronto’s owner. Trubisky at 18th, Marlon Mack at 23rd, Everett at 2.6, there were so many picks that I didn’t see coming. What compounds on the confusion is that the whole future was leveraged for these picks. All that said, there were some great values here. Kevin King and Gareon Conley in the back of the 3rd were great picks. And building a team in this way may have cost a ton in draft capital, but Toronto should have close to the most salary space going into the season and next off-season, giving them a huge leg up in acquiring big contracts and signing free agents. It seems to me that Toronto felt their team needed a systemic overhaul, and boy did they get it. I didn’t get it, but I’m routinely wrong. This could be mad, this could be genius, I don’t know. I do know this was easily the most fun draft of them all.

Washington Redskins: B(?)

Best Move: Acquired 1.3 in exchange for Blake Bortles and C.J. Prosise

Ok, deep breath. There’s a lot to break down here. Washington had the second busiest draft of the year, just behind our friends north of the border. The R-Words brought in a lot of talent, some I liked, some I didn’t, and some that will never actually score points for them. I’ll start with their best move, and that was acquiring 1.3 for Bortles and Prosise. Bortle’s struggles in the preseason make this look even better, and potential 1st overall pick Leonard Fournette being there makes it look unreal. But then Fournette was dealt along with Vontae Davis and Thomas Rawls for a Reshad Jones, Duke Johnson Jr., Zach Brown, and Xavier Rhodes. Turning around and dealing a selection he got just a week prior for more value was impressive, but time will tell if the haul it brought will have been worth a potential franchise player at a position that seems to always be in demand. Beyond these deals, the D.C.s brought in big talents in Golladay and Gallman, and strong values like Tanoh Kpassagnon, Shaq Griffin, and Larry Ogunjobi. They also ended up dealing a number of future picks, including next year’s 1st and 2nd rounders. I wish I had the time to break down each and every move, but all in all Washington used assets they deemed expendable to completely rebuild a much nastier defense, making them a team to fear in 2017.

Well, that’s all I have for this season’s football rookie draft. We’ll be doing season predictions soon. The moral of the story is: rejoice, for football has returned!

Real Deal Report: Moneyball – American League East Preview

2017 Real Deal Moneyball Preview & Predictions: American League East

Ah, Opening Week of Baseball! This is arguably my favorite time of year. This marks the true start of Spring and the realization of our last four months of drafting, trading and overbidding for free agents. I’m going to attempt to provide some interesting reading this season as long as my time permits. At least to start the season, I wanted to take a few weeks to preview the season and make some predictions. So during the month of April, I will be breaking down one division at a time and offering some predictions for the season. Should this have been done in the off-season? Probably, but I was too damn busy and now that the season has started, I figured I’d give us some things to argue about. I won’t be using early season results to impact my previews, but past season stats and off-season trends to hopefully spark some lively debate on the chat boards and perhaps generate a trading frenzy.

 

 

Best of the American League East

Best Lineup – Boston Red Sox

 

This was a tough call. It was difficult not to put a lineup with Edwin Encarnacion, Joey Bats, Josh Donaldson and Tulo as the best in the division. TOR won over 100 games last season and their offense had much to do with that. I give the nod to BOS because their lineup is

Killer B’s look to carry the Moneyball Red Sox in 2017 and beyond

longer, overall younger and deeper with productive reserves.

There is not much production expected from the catching position, but the infield can hang with anyone. At 1B, Hanley Ramirez had a resurgence last season and reached the 30 HR, 100 RBI plateau after two tough seasons. At age 33, he won’t be running like he did for the Marlins, but he can still hit and now a full time DH in real life, he should rake again this year. 2B is a solid Logan Forsythe who should see a boost hitting in that Dodgers lineup IRL compared to Tampa. At 3B is Eduardo Nunez who broke out as a full time player after being cast off by the Yankees a few years back. Now and All-star caliber player that can hit and could pitch in on the wSB category. Finally at SS is young stud Xander Bogaerts. The 24-year-old will contribute in all offensive categories except ISO. Infield depth include Mark Reynolds, Jimmy Paredes, Justin Smoak, Scooter Gennett and Luis Valbuena. All these guys can fill in for short injury stints, but will be exposed in some categories if active every day.

Starting outfield features two of the best young players in ALL of baseball. Mookie Betts  should be an MVP candidate and Andrew Benintendi likely wins the AL Rookie of the Year. Both should be Sabremetric monsters. Betts had an incredible 4.7 RC27 with a K/9 of only .11. Benintendi has all the tools to contribute in every category as well. Mark Trumbo should provide power production and was a better Moneyball performer than I expected. He could meet or exceed .350 wOBP, .850 OPS, .250 ISO, and 3.50 RC27. That’s pretty damn productive. Rounding out the OF corp are usually part-timers Matt Joyce and Jarrod Dyson. Both these guys are expected to see higher At Bats that usual but will still sit somewhat regularly against southpaws. 

It is important to note that BOS also has uber prospect Yoan Moncada and Top 20 spec, Bradley Zimmer waiting in the wings. Both should be in the Majors by the All-Star break.

The scariest thing about this lineup, is that other than old guys HanRam and Trumbo, all the rest of their sluggers make under $2M and under club control for several years.

 

Best Rotation – Toronto Blue Jays

 

The defending AL East Champs weren’t just carried by offense, they had a decent rotation for this league. Looking at the teams in this division, they pretty much all have strong #1 and # 2

Not quite these guys, but TOR has the best rotation in the division

starters and most have a decent #3. After that the SP depth dries up with the exception of two teams. I nearly but the NYY here but there are way too many question marks regarding health and productivity to give them the nod. Toronto actually has a legitimate five man rotation which is quite feat in a league this deep. 

 

  1. Marcus Stroman
  2. Aaron Sanchez
  3. R.A. Dickey
  4. Ivan Nova
  5. Brandon McCarthy

 

McCarthy is always an injury risk but the other four should be able to go 175+ innings and give some consistency to the rotation. There isn’t any SP depth on this team and there isn’t any prospects close to the Majors on his Farm. Perhaps the TOR owner will flip some of his highly regarded hitting prospects to sure give depth to the best starting five in the division.

 

Best Bullpen – Boston Red Sox

 

We head back to Fenway for the AL East top ‘pen. It is built in the image of a true MLB ‘pen and will be the strength of the best pitching staff this season.

 

  • CL – Seung Hwa Oh

    The Moneyball Red Sox don’t have this problem
  • 8th – Koji Uehara
  • 7th – Hector Neris
  • LHS – Brett Cecil
  • MID – *Carson Smith
  • MID – Antonio Bastardo
  • MID – Heath Hembree
  • LR – Bryan Mitchell

 

In a league were meeting the five minimum RP requirement is a struggle for some owners, BOS breaks out a bullpen staff with eight productive pitchers. Carson Smith is projected to return in June and will solidify and already deep bullpen that could feature 5-6 guys with 10+ K/9. 

 

Best Farm System – New York Yankees

 

TOR has definitely build up the farm on the offensive side but most of their top prospects are far away from impact in the Majors. NYY on the other hand, was three rookies on their 25 Man roster now (Swanson, Judge, Montas) with another handful of the fifteen Top 100 prospects in AA or higher. You could list an entire lineup and rotation with the top prospects in this organization.

 

  • C – Tom Murphy, Zack Collins
  • 1B – Chris Shaw, Rowdy Tellez
  • 2B – Jorge Mateo
  • SS – Dansby Swanson, Gleyber Torres
  • 3B – Jeimer Candelario
  • OF – Aaron Judge, Blake Rutherford, Kyle Lewis
  • SP – Frankie Montas, Grant Holmes, Triston McKenzie, Justus Sheffield, Kolby Allard, Mike Soroka

 

Final Standing Predictions

 

  1. *Toronto Blue Jays 90 – 48
  2. New York Yankees 78 – 60 
  3. Tampa Bay Rays 73 – 65
  4. Boston Red Sox 70 – 68
  5. Baltimore Orioles 66 – 72

 

I peg TOR to repeat easily with approximately the same winning percentage as last year. The projected records are based on the new 138 game schedule. They will likely be the only team to represent the AL East despite an overall strong division. NYY takes a huge stride as their moves throughout last season already begin paying off with a jump from last to 2nd. They have enough offense to be competitive in hitting categories and they could have seven SP if everything breaks right during the season which keeps them competitive in pitching categories. It likely won’t be enough to earn a playoff spot, but gets them close. TB has another decent season, but they don’t have enough pitching or hitting depth this season. If DeLeon and Honeywell reach the Majors and stick, that could give them a boost. BOS has the best lineup AND the best bullpen so why are the just over .500? They likely will be penalized every week for failing to reach pitching GS minimums, otherwise they would contend for the devision with TOR. There are a few nice pieces in BAL, but the core hitters outside of Machado are getting older and the rotation is short. They can compete with many teams but will split too many weeks to make up for the weeks they get clobbered by the top teams in the league. 

 

Final Thoughts

 

Should be a fun year in this division where the 2nd thru 5th teams cannibalize one another to ensure only the top team makes the post-season. Hopefully there is significant wheeling and dealing to totally screw up these predictions. Who really cares what I think…let’s hear your thoughts on the Moneyball AL East this season!!!

 


Bryan Luhrs

Real Deal Dynasty Sports
Owner, League Developer & Executive Commissioner
 
Major League Fantasy Sports
Writer & Contributor
 
 

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2017 Real Deal Dynasty Baseball Preseason Power Rankings: Top 10

  1. Detroit Tigers

Starting out the top 10 for us is the Detroit Tigers, a 2016 playoff team and division winner. The Tigers have only made minor moves thus far, shipping out Matt Holliday for draft picks, as well as some swapping of draft picks. That said, he is carrying a talented roster into this season, so maybe he hasn’t seen the need to shake things up too much. On offense, carrying the load will be Miguel Cabrera, a healthy Nick Castellanos (who is having a nice spring), Victor Martinez, Brad Miller, Rajai Davis and Curtis Granderson. Dexter Fowler is no slouch either, and another step forward from Javier Baez would be huge. There is some promise in the pitching staff too, though there is one open spot, and two spots occupied by minors’ players. Still, he’s got Scherzer, Verland, Salazar, and Dyson. I think Norris takes a step forward this year too. Plus, if Boyd can put forth some improvements, things are looking pretty good for a team that may only be a few acquisitions (free agency or trade), away from another run.

  1. Washington Nationals

Last year, the Nationals were a wildcard team, coming in second place in the division to perennial powerhouse Miami. They were also a team that eclipsed that elusive 23,000 mark, which was a number that netted all teams who hit it a cash reward last year. The Nationals come back this year with a strong team. In the offseason, the Nationals made a few moves, highlighted by a major deal in which he sent AJ Ramos, Adam Jones, a 5th round pick, and Danny Duffy to the Braves for the 1st overall pick, which brought him Carlos Santana. This is in addition to an offense that has a good mix of talent and promise, with names like Anthony Rendon, Jean Segura, Bryce Harper, and Jurickson Profar. Some nice names on this pitching staff, too. I like Jon Gray taking the next step, and he’s got Strasburg, Britton, Kimbrel. Smyly’s injury doesn’t help, and Ryu hasn’t been the same for a while, but he could be a dark horse to have a nice year. Promising prospect Gioloto is in the minors too, though he hasn’t matched up to the hype that’s surrounded him for a while just yet. Overall, probably a team that has ammo to be a top scoring team again this year.

Finish Reading: 2017 Real Deal Dynasty Baseball Preseason Power Rankings: Top 10

  1. Tampa Bay Rays

Surprise, surprise. The Rays were in one of the least competitive divisions in the league last year. Even after selling off a number of pieces in that Dansby Swanson deal (with me), he still almost made the playoffs. Tampa has been crazy busy this offseason. (Seriously, go check out the trade history for this season). Major or notable acquisitions include Ian Kinsler (who he just traded to me for Johnny Cueto, by the way), John Lackey, Brian Dozier, Addison Reed, and David Freese. Make no mistake, this (like most teams), will be a team carried by its offense. In addition to Dozier and Swanson, and led by Mookie Betts, the team also has Andrew McCutcheon, Howie Kendrick, Nori Aoki, and some bit players who will help too. In addition to Cueto and Lackey, the staff has guys that will help, like Odorizzi, Colome, and to a lesser extent, Boxberger, Gallardo, and Gibson. Miranda, with the injury of Smyly, has the chance to pitch his way into the permanent rotation. He could end up being a nice player that would really help the Rays in their efforts to go on a run and make the playoffs this year.

  1. Texas Rangers

Another team that has made a ton of transactions this offseason, having acquired players lik, Lorenzo Cain, Masahiro Tanaka, Ken Giles, Dan Straily, Kendall Graveman, Drew Pomeranz, Jeurys Familia, Jorge Soler, and prospects like Josh Bell and Anderson Espinoza. The rather-deep offense includes Travis d’Arnaud, Mike Napoli, Starlin Castro, Adrian Beltre, Elvis Andrus, and Kendrys Morales, as well as bench players like Wilmer Flores, Adeiny Hechavarria, Soler, Delino Deshields (acquired this year), and Steven Souza. Some serious depth. The pitching staff will rely heavily on new guys Tanaka, Giles, and Familia, but will also get contributions from Straily, Casilla, Graveman, and Buchholz. Looks like a team that benefit by adding another starter, but whether or not they do, this team will be putting up points again in 2017.

  1. Houston Astros

The Astros, another 23,000-point club from last year and a team that went 44-4 in their division, bring back a stacked lineup. Jose Altuve, Chris Davis, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, Adam Duvall, Yoenis Cespedes, and George Springer. Whoa. On top of this, they added Yuli Gurriel and Danny Duffy. Pitchers for the Astros, one of only two teams to win 80-plus games last year, include Chris Archer, Gio Gonzalez, Lance McCullers (breakout?), and David Robertson, but still has plenty of guys that will contribute, like Gregerson, Devenski, and Guerra. I don’t see any reason why the Astros won’t once again be one of the top scoring teams in the league—poised to go on another deep playoff run, and possibly ready to unseat Boston in the AL.

  1. Cleveland Indians

You all know the story by now. Jeff’s movements have been the main offseason story line. Let’s take a look at some of his main acquisitions: Jonathan Lucroy, Jose Abreu, Jose Quintana, Chris Sale, Jake Arrieta, Hector Neris, Aroldis Chapman, and Edwin Encarnacion. Whoa. Who else is on the offense you ask? How about Trea Turner, Francisco Lindor, Nomar Mazara, Tyler Naquin, Max Kepler, and a stashed Wilson Ramos on the bench. On the pitching side, joining the aforementioned pitchers are guys who will contribute, like Joe Ross, Brandon Maurer, etc. This has to be the quickest turnaround we’ve seen in this league right? I’d tell Boston, and maybe the NL too, to watch out for Cleveland come later this year.

  1. Arizona Diamondbacks

A little odd to do your own team’s preview, but here we go. I’ve made a few offseason moves that are worth mentioning, having moved Adam Eaton and Joe Blanton for Asdrubal Cabrera and Francisco Rodriguez; then Todd Frazier for Austin Hedges and Jedd Gyorko (who I flipped for Robert Gsellman), then Archie Bradley, Bryan Shaw, and a pick for Andrew Miller. Then I moved Hector Rondon for Brad Brach, Greinke for Bauer in a salary dump, and Johnny Cueto for Ian Kinsler. In addition to the players mentioned before, I’ve got Goldschmidt, Lamb, Desmond, Pollock, Cruz, Solarte, and Inciarte. Even moving Cueto, I think the staff looks solid. Carlos Martinez, Tanner Roark, Tyler Skaggs, Shawn Kelley, Fernando Rodney, Jason Grilli, and Drew Storen. Desmond is already injured, and there are a few question marks in guys like Skaggs, Storen, K-Rod, and possibly Roark, as well as Hedges and Pollock, but I do feel confident in my ability to make it back to the playoffs. From there, I may need some luck, some moves, or some breakouts.

  1. Boston Red Sox

        

Two out of the last three seasons, Boston has made it to the championship round. Could this be the year they finally win it all? Let’s have a look at their chances. First, the offseason moves. Boston acquired catching prospect Jorge Alfaro by moving Jonathan Lucroy, and also acquired Archie Bradley, Bryan Shaw, and a prospect for Andrew Miller. Other notable additions include Steven Wright, JD Martinez, Brian McCann, and Miguel Sano. Some nice offseason moves, for sure. Looks like a powerful offense, with guys like Xander Bogaerts, Evan Longoria, Joey Votto, Andrew Benentendi, joining those other players. But there aren’t really holes in the offense, as they round out the roster with Odubel Herrera, Mitch Moreland, and Chris Young (With Blake Swihart waiting in the wings.) He probably needs another pitcher or two, but the staff looks good. Rick Porcello, Jameson Taillon, David Price, Patrick Corbin, Edwin Diaz, Joe Kelly (who will have sneaky good value early), as well as Wade Miley and the other players mentioned above, will all contribute this year. In total, I expect Boston to be competing with Cleveland, Houston, and so on, come the end of the year.

  1. Chicago Cubs

The reigning champions aren’t number one? They probably should be, but still, I am strictly going off of the point projection system that was developed. Will Chicago repeat this year? Well, they have as good a chance as any team to win it all this year. Notable offseason acquisitions include Adam Eaton, Neftali Feliz, and Tyler Thornburg. So maybe not an overly busy offseason, but maybe they didn’t need to make too many moves. This is an offense that boasts Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Hanley Ramirez, Ben Zobrist, Logan Forsythe, Stephen Vogt, Denard Span, and Addison Russell. Then on the bench, he’s got Luis Valbuena, Seth Smith, and Josh Phegley. Deep. That’s more than 650 points (from 2016) on the bench. The pitching staff is strong, too. Jon Lester, Carlos Carrasco, Mark Melancon, and Kyle Hendricks anchor the staff, but every other pitcher will be contributing points too, with names like Joe Blanton, Ryan Dull, Jason Vargas, and Kyle Barraclough. On paper, they are as strong a team as any, and barring any major injuries, should be right in the thick of the race later this year.

  1. Milwaukee Brewers

       

Last year, the Brewers didn’t even win their division. It’s fun to point out, only because even though this is true, they still had the fifth most wins in the league, and the third most points (eclipsing the 23,000-point mark.) It doesn’t look like this year is going to be a letdown for Milwaukee, either. Notable offseason additions include Kole Calhoun, Blake Snell, and Francisco Liriano. If you want to talk about having a deep team, how about the fact that this guy has Troy Tulowitzki on his bench, along with Keon Broxton and Tom Murphy. Then on the rest of his offense, he has Evan Gattis, Travis Shaw, Josh Donaldson, Jonathan Schoop, Jhonny Peralta, Khris Davis, Marcell Ozuna, Jose Bautista, and the players mentioned above. Over to the pitching staff, where a group of Toronto pitchers are leading the way: Aaron Sanchez, JA Happ, Robert Osuna, and Marco Estrada. He’s also got Jeremy Hellickson, Rich Hill, and others who will help throughout the year. And you know that Tony has more moves up his sleeve. Just try to make sure you don’t end up scratching your head, wondering how he got your best player for so little.

 

2017 Real Deal Dynasty Baseball Preseason Power Rankings: 20-11

This posted is continued from page 1, rankings 30-21.

  1. Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore needs a 1st baseman. This is the first thing I noticed when looking at the team. First base is a position that can represent a fantasy cornerstone player.  (See Miguel Cabrera, Anthony Rizzo, Paul Goldschmidt, Joey Votto, etc.) Without one, it will be hard. There are a few bright spots on the offense though, with DJ LeMahieu and Stephen Piscotty. The rest of the outfield should be decent, but probably not quite strong enough. On the pitching side, it’s hard not like Gausman going into the year, especially on that contract. Bundy could be a break-through, too, but I feel like I have been saying this for years. Overall there is some talent, but it feels like a stretch to say this team will be competing this year, especially in that division.

  1. Philadelphia Phillies

Philly is a team that has yet to make any moves this year, which is curious. On offense, Pedroia, Franco, and Trumbo are good bets to be solid consistent producers. Franco could even be someone who could improve drastically. Rupp is someone I like this year too, at a thin position. The rest of the offense is more of a question mark. Hernandez and Joseph, if they progress, could be nice. Bourn, Werth, Guyer, and Lowrie, not as exciting, though they will at least provide some points, unlike some teams who have rookies or injured players in these slots.  For the arms, not much stands out beyond Hamels and Watson, though I do think that Greg Holland has the chance to be a steal, and would make for excellent trade bait, or a good keeper. Nova should be okay too, but is a little expensive. In fact, this team is more than $20 over the limit, so moves already have to be made. In summary, probably not a staff that can be a huge difference maker.

  1. Los Angeles Dodgers

       

On first glance, I notice that this is certainly a team with talent, but there are also three minor league players in starting positions. This helps in terms of fielding a compliant roster, but that’s about it. Still: Manny Machado, Jose Ramirez, Clayton Kershaw, and to a lesser extent, Adrian Gonzalez, Yadier Molina, and maybe even Puig and Duda, who knows. There are some guys I like on that staff that could be sneaky good, too. Walker (NL now…could be in for a big year), Baez, Strop, Ottavino, and in particular, Matt Moore. Still, there are some holes on the roster in the form of those minor leaguers. And if a team is going to be carried by its offense, that outfield isn’t all that intimidating. Don’t sleep on the Dodgers, though. There’s a large farm system, with some good names. Trades or call-ups could change this team’s outlook, as obvious as that may sound. Though he would have to make some changes, after not making a single trade in 2016. Finish Reading: 2017 Real Deal Dynasty Baseball Preseason Power Rankings: 20-11

  1. Toronto Blue Jays

Starting with the offense, this is a pretty solid roster. Not really a glaring hole, but aside from Carpenter and Polanco, there are some question marks. Will Buxton will emerge? Will Vargas reach his power potential? Can Reyes still play at a high level? I’m willing to guess that for at least one of these, the answer will be yes. On the pitching side, there are certainly some steady contributors. For one, I am a believer in Marcus Stroman, and think he comes back strong this year. Manaea is another player I like to take a jump this year too. The bullpen is unspectacular, but there are players that will contribute. Keep an eye on Cam Bedrosian, who has been lights out this spring. His name is one that could be a lot more popular come mid-season. Lastly, this is another deep farm system, with multiple top-100 prospects, which provides hope for the help in the future, or ammo for in-season trades for a more immediate run.

  1. San Francisco Giants

The future down we get, the more you see a “complete team.” And by that I mean literally, a team with all spots filled. In every spot on this offense, there are players that are going to contribute consistent points, or will at least be given the opportunity to do so on a regular or semi-regular basis. Some more (Posey, Seager, Pence), than others (Mahtook, Jay, Smoak), but still, points are points. In looking at the pitching staff, your eyes may first go to Bumgarner. Hard not to. But Ian Kenndy, and then bullpen names like Jeffress, Madson, and Strickland should put up some good points. And maybe Keuchel has a year closer to 2015, or at least better than 2016. Of note here, too, is the fact that the Giants also have plenty of players in the farm system.

  1. Atlanta Braves

I think this could be a sneaky good offense. Let’s start with the obvious contributors: Wieters, Pujols, Jones, Kemp. But what about Thames, Haniger, Polanco, and maybe even Saladino? You’ll also have some decent contributions from Gomez and Garcia. Could potentially be a deeper offense than it seems, if one of those aforementioned question marks can break out. Regarding the pitching staff, though, this isn’t as much depth. Sure, Teheran and Ramos will offer plenty of points, but some of the other names are quite average, Dickey, Garcia, Koehler, or even just not very good, Peralta, Knebel. German Marquez could be a nice sleeper though. Not a bad minors’ system here, either, with top 100 names like Albies, Allard, and Anderson in the mix.

  1. New York Yankees

Last year, the Yankees made 59 trades, most of which were non minor-to-majors moves. The team improved from 8-85 to 37-56 last year. Expect another jump this year. Since last season, the Yankees have acquired, among other assets, Justin Upton, Chris Carter, Brandon Phillips, Eduardo Rodrigez, Brandon Finnegan, Mike Montgomery, and Jerad Eickhoff. He also has a healthy Greg Bird for 2016, a player that many people look at as capable of having a star-turning breakout season. In his active minors, he has some players that could help soon, too, in guys like Aaron Judge and Jose De Leon, as well as guys that can help now, like Eduardo Rodriguez. Other certain players, if they pan out, could end up helping too. Names like Severino, Refsnyder, Mitchell. Still, even by slotting in Rodriguez, Severino, Holder, and Mitchell, there will be two open roster spots to fill. Free agency is looming though, so things should pan out. A solid roster coupled with a breakout season or two could help to improve the Yankees, a team on the upswing, once again.

  1. Miami Marlins

Last year, the Marlins made to the NL Championship against the Cubs, but ultimately fell short. Since then, the team has moved Chris Sale, Drew Pomeranz, Neftali Feliz, Steven Wright, Shelby Miller, Eduardo Rodriguez, JT Realmuto, Rougned Odor, Addison Reed, Francisco Liriano, and David Freese. In those deals, he’s added, among others, Corey Kluber, Yu Darvish, Shin-soo Choo, Nathan Karns, Chris Owings, CJ Cron, Dee Gordon, and Jeff Samardzija. Points prediction wise, the system didn’t seem to favor these moves, but knowing Miami, there are multiple moves to be made. Not to mention, this is a team has Mike Trout, Dee Gordon, Corey Seager, Christian Yelich, in addition to some of the other names mentioned above. I’m trying to steer clear of predictions here, but I am guessing that Miami’s mid-season power ranking is going to be a bit lower on the list. (That is, closer to the top 5-10.)

  1. New York Mets

Check out the offensive depth here. Some teams don’t have full rosters. The Mets have Jason Heyward, Gerardo Parra, Michael Brantley, and Brett Lawrie on their bench, along with a few others. The roster, aside from (promising) rookie Hunter Renfroe, all contributed more than 200 points last season. When healthy, Matt Duffy should be a nice player, too. Beltran, Pederson, Realmuto, and Simmons will put up steady points all year. To the pitching staff we go, where deGrom, Syndergaard, and Matz (if healthy) will anchor the starters. Will Hernandez improve like Verlander, or will he slide more? That determination will have an impact on this team, for sure. Harvey is hitting 97 MPH on the gun too…. The relievers are less impressive than the rest of the team, though he does have Gsellman as an RP available, along with Seth Lugo, who could be decent.  The Mets regressed from 2015 to 2016, but we could see and upswing this year if people stay healthy.

  1. Kansas City Royals

The last of the middle group is the Royals, who were a playoff team last year. Looks like the team is poised to once again put up points, with a roster that includes Wil Myers, Robinson Cano, Yasmani Grandal, Jackie Bradley Jr, Jonathan Villar, Jay Bruce, and a healthy Mike Moustakas. If the Royals are going to make another run, though, they will be relying quite heavily on the offense. This a staff that, if we are looking at last year’s numbers, only has two players that eclipsed 200 points, both of which are relievers (Will Harris and Kenley Jansen, the latter of which should once again put up monster numbers, to be fair.) Maybe a Robbie Ray breakout season could assist here, otherwise the Royals will be looking to acquire pitchers, or just stack up an already formidable offense to win games.

Real Deal Ultimate 3 Sport League Recruiting New Owners

If you are a dynasty sports nut…

we have a year around league that might interest you. Real Deal Ultimate features 3 sports in 1 league. Each sport has their own page where you manage your rosters but you complete against the same owners/GMs in all 3 sports as you own one team from each sport that is or has been historically associated with a city/metro area. This is 24 City League with a $200 yearly buy-in. It may seem like a lot but it includes all three sports as well as bonuses awarded to the top performers overall. Only $100 is due up front to get started as the 2nd half is due this Summer. Our calendar year runs from Jan 1st thru Dec 31st and we have a few open cities heading into 2017, our 3rd season, starting with Baseball. 

 

If there is a sport that you don’t know as well, we have several cities that are co-owned that split up the GM duties as well as the buy-in. If you don’t have anyone to go in with, we can connect you with GMs that can manage a sport for you as the sole owner if needed. The Constitution is currently under review, but I would be happy to send the 2016 document to anyone that inquires. Just a warning, the Constitution is no joke, it spans 57 pages of reading enjoyment. 

2016 Real Deal Dynasty baseball season retrospective and awards

With the 2016 Real Deal baseball season in the rear view, let’s take a look back at the year, which was dominated early and often by just a handful of teams.

2016 culminated in Red Sox vs. Cubs, with the Cubs emerging

First, congratulations to all of those who won money this year, led by the championship-winning Chicago Cubs and runner-up Boston Red Sox. And well done to the division winners, the Houston Astros, Detroit Tigers, Arizona Diamondbacks, and Miami Marlins, as well as the Cubs and Red Sox. Lastly, a tip of the cap to the wild card teams, the Washington Nationals, Milwaukee Brewers, Texas Rangers, and Kansas City Royals.

Real Deal World Series MVP Asdrubal Cabrera

Finish Reading: 2016 Real Deal Dynasty baseball season retrospective and awards

To start, I’ll discuss the divisional races a bit. As a result of team building strategy, patience, luck, and whatever else you’d consider in terms of what makes a fantasy team successful; most divisions were not that close. In fact, four out of the six division winners won by double digit wins: Miami Marlins, Arizona Diamondbacks, Boston Red Sox, and Houston Astros. In addition, the Cubs won their division by 9, though noting this may not be all that fair, since the runner up Milwaukee had the fifth most wins in the league, and the third most points.

That leaves just the AL Central, which was an interesting to follow in terms of the battle between Kansas City and Detroit. Interestingly enough, the Tigers won the division on the last day of the year despite having scored less points (20,780 vs 21,294) oveall. This was a fun division to watch and should be next year as well, with Cleveland stacking up, a new owner in Minnesota, and a White Sox team that is also making moves in an effort to improve upon 2015’s last place finish.

Despite not being all that close in terms of wins, the NL East was still competitive, as the second place Nationals—a wildcard playoff team—still had 31 wins in the division compared to Miami’s 39, while also scoring more than 23,000 points, a number that I will touch on later in this article. Despite a vast improvement in Philadephia, going from 17 wins to 45, that seems to still be a team that is in the process of rebuilding. The Mets, on the other hand, had a tough go of it, as they went down in wins from 67 (A 1st place finish in 2015), to 45 in 2016. Much like the real-life counterpart, these Mets were bit with injuries to a number of key players.

Unlike last year in the NL West, where the top three teams were within 7 games and less than 1,000 points of one another, this year was not as close. The Arizona Diamondbacks (My team, if anyone is wondering), led the pack with 20 more wins than the second place Dodgers, as well as nearly 4,500 points. Still, things can change quickly, and as I work to get under budget for 2017, nothing is taken for granted.

Next we go over to the juggernaut-led NL Central, which had the highest scoring team, the Cubs, and the third-highest scoring team, the Brewers. While the Brewers were once again a dominant force, the Cubs were something else this year. At 83-10, the best record in the league, the Cubs were also tied for second with Houston (Behind Boston) for division record, at 44-4, while also scoring the most points in the league by 1,365 points. More on the Cubs later, but the two-headed monster at the top of the division didn’t leave much room for the Cardinals, Reds, or Pirates, all of which fell under the .500 mark while failing to reach 19,000 points for the year. Looking torward the future though, let’s not count any of these teams out. If you take a look at the jump that Cincinatti made from 2015-2016 (more on this later), there is room for optimism going into 2017.

Shifting back over to the AL, where the AL East was among the least competitive division in 2015. To put it into perspective, the second-place Rays sold off major MLB-level talent and a slew of prospects all for one top 5 prospect (more on this deal later), and yet still somehow almost made the playoffs. But it’s not really the Rays we should be talking about here, in terms of 2015, as the Boston Red Sox once again had a dominant season, running through the competition all the way until he fell to the Cubs—the second year in a row in which Boston had made the finals, only to fall short. Will 2017 be his year?

Lastly, we had the AL West, which had one of the league’s two 80-game winners in Houston, leading the pack. Behind them was the Texas Rangers, also a 2015 playoff team, who despite having 16 less wins that the division leader, was not a team to be taken lightly. In fact, Texas made it into the playoffs and managed to beat KC in the opening round, then upset rival Houston by less than 4 points in the second round, only to fall to Boston Round 3. Still, an impressive season by both teams. The other teams in the division, Oakland, Los Angeles, and Seattle, will look to improve upon disappointing seasons in 2015.

At this point, I’d like to give out a few different awards from the season. I took a look back at the season from a high level and reached these conclusions, so do try your best to not get mad at me for them!

Let’s get started.

Best trade:

Jonathan Villar likes this

Oakland Athletics send:

Jonathan Villar
Travis Blankenhorn

Kansis City Royals send:

Jorge Bonifacio
Tyler Mahle
Preston Tucker
Mark Canha

For my money, the best trade of the year, and one that helped Kansas City make it into the playoffs. At $1.2 and having scored more than 552 points on the year, Villar may be one of the top value-output players in the league, this side of Mookie Betts.

I should be clear in stating that I think this trade was a win for KC. From the Oakland side, I don’t really understand it is as much, as he received 0 prospects from the top 100. Jorge Bonifacio looks like a decent prospect and is ranked #2 in the KC system, whild Tyler Mahle is likely the second best player coming back in the deal, and he is #7 ranked in the Astros system. Villar, on the other hand, was the 25th ranked overall player last year.

That said, prospect rankings are not necessarily gospel, so who knows, maybe this trade looks nice for both teams this year or soon. But in looking right now, it’s a clear win for the Royals.

Biggest /most controversial trade:

I hate to involve myself in any of these superlative mentions, but I would say that this was most likely, in fact, the biggest and perhaps most controversial trade, given the amount of players.

Dansby Swanson

In the deal, I sent Dansby Swanson over to Tampa Bay, who set back:

  • Zack Greinke
  • Chris Davis
  • Shawn Kelley
  • Christian Bethancourt
  • Johnny Giavotella

As well as the following prospects:

  • German Marquez
  • Andrew Velazquez
  • Jomar Reyes
  • Jake Fraley
  • Dustin Fowler
  • Chris Betts

Now, to put this deal into perspective, Malcolm and I were engaged in trade talks for a while before it got to this. I basically told him I wasn’t going to trade Swanson to him, but he countered with a deal that I just could not refuse.

If you boil this down, I’ve already dropped Bethancourt and Giavotella, and I traded Chris Davis last year for Todd Frazier, who I traded this year for catching prospect Austin Hedges and Jedd Gyorko. I also plan to keep Greinke. But in return, Malcolm has (what we both believe to be) a young, cheap, cornerstone player at a premium position. Yes, it looked big on the surface, and it was, but ultimately, we both though it to be more than fair.

Least active trader:

This award goes to the Los Angeles Dodgers, who made 0 in-season trades, and only one offseason trade that involved the swapping of draft picks. Still, this is a team that won 55 games last year, so maybe with a few strategic moves, they will be right back in the thick of things in 2017.

Most active trader:

This goes to the New York Yankees. Christian Tobler, who took over in 2015, made a whopping 59 trades. This includes activations of players from the minors to majors, but upon closer look, a vast majority of these moves are actual trades. In 2015, the team was 8-85, and this year, 37-56. A 29-game improvement is a big one, and these moves played a big role in that.

How many more games can the Yankees win this year?

Biggest turnaround:

Speaking of big turnarounds, nobody had a bigger one than the Cincinnati Reds, who went from 3-90 in 2015 to 37-56 in 2016.

This was also a team that made a good deal of trades last year. Again, can the rebuild project continue, and gain momentum into 2017? Time will tell.

23,000 club

Lastly, I wanted to recognize the teams that scored 23,000 or more. I chose this number because all teams reaching this mark won money, and were right at the top of the standings throughout basically the entire season. Whether or not this number will be a similar benchmark for 2017 is yet to be seen, but there is no denying that the following teams, which all scored 23,000 or more, had success this year: Cubs, Astros, Brewers, Marlins, Diamondbacks, Red Sox, Nationals.

Closing

In terms of making predictions for next year, that will come in a separate article later in the offseason. This article was meant to provide a year-in-review type of retrospective, and to hopefully motivate teams who are either looking to repeat upon past success, or to achieve it for the first time.

Regardless of which category you fall into, the 2016 season is now over, and we are looking into 2017 with new hope and optimism. Good luck to everyone in their offseason preparations, and thanks for a great year.

We’re onto 2017.

Jimmy Carroll (Arizona Diamondbacks)

One Team Available in Real Deal Dynasty Basketball!!!

As baseball is wrapping up and football kicks off this week, dynasty basketball off-season activities begin in September. Our unique 30 team full dynasty league features salaries, contracts, extensions, amnesty clause and many other NBA-like features. We are entering our 3rd season and about to begin our free agency period this month and our 2 round Rookie draft in October. You can get all the extensive details about our league by reading our Constitution. We need one replacement owner to take over a rebuilding Philadelphia Sixers team that has two 1st round picks including #3 overall. Here is what the team looks like and keep in mind it is a 30 team league…

 

Player

Pos Move Name Status Sal Con FPts FP/G
PG
Williams, Lou PG,SG,GLAL Active 5,225,000 2017 1960.84 29.27
SG
Green, Danny SG,G,SF,FSA  Active 3,762,500 2018 1854.21 23.47
G
Morrow, Anthony SG,G,SF,FOKC Active 1,027,424 2017 717.3 10.55
SF
Muhammad, Shabazz SG,G,SF,FMIN  Active 1,887,120 2016 1654.25 20.17
PF
Kaminsky, Frank PF,F,CCHA  Active 1,742,400 2018 1694.45 20.92
F
Robinson, Thomas PF,F,C(N/A)   Active 3,526,440 2017 1270.56 17.9
C
Biyombo, Bismack PF,F,CORL  Active 3,049,920 2016 2176.99 26.55
Flx
Grant, Jerami SF,PF,FPHI  Active 9,222,000 2018 2202.29 28.6
Tokoto, J.P. SF,F(N/A)  Reserve 750,000 2016 0 0
Chandler, Wilson SG,G,SF,FDEN   Reserve 6,344,164 2019 0 0
Sacre, Robert C(N/A)   Reserve 788,872 2016 299.01 11.96
Early, Cleanthony SF,FNY  Reserve 893,500 2017 109.23 6.43
Looney, Kevon PF,FGS   Reserve 750,000 2016 28.57 5.71
McGary, Mitch PF,F,COKC   Reserve 1,082,200 2017 72.06 3.6
Reserve spot(s) available: Limited by Max Players on Team
Inj Res spot(s) available: 2
Minors spot(s) available: 2
Totals 14039.76 20.83 674 13642:06 457 5,110 719 1,919 2,638 713 343 449 607 21
Active:  8     Reserve:  6

Draft Picks

Year Picks (for current season, after draft order is finalized, picks are shown as Round-Pick, Round-Pick, …)
2016 1-3, 1-25, 2-3, 2-13
2017 1, 2, 2 (ORL)
2018 1, 2
Salary   Used: $40,051,540     Remaining: $51,091,460      Cap: $91,143,000
      Free Agent Budget Remaining: $91,143,000

 

 

 

If you are interested in taking over the team, please fill out this short application and we will reach out to you shortly after.

Announcing Launch of new league: Real Deal Moneyball Dynasty

Not for the faint of heart…

Real Deal Dynasty Sports proudly launches the newest dynasty league to the brand. Real Deal Moneyball will test your ability to build the best team using some of the more prominent sabermetric statistics. Since the scoring primarily is sabermetric ratios, the hitters with the most HRs or the pitchers with the most strikeouts are NOT always the best performers in this league. Acquiring the right platoon players and middle relievers can be the life-blood of a championship roster. Hot rookie call ups can put you over the top in a tight scoring period. Below are a few of the highlights that will make this unique league something you can get totally immersed in.

  • 30 Team MLB franchise Dynasty League
  • Head-to-Head Each Category = 1/2 Win creates a “162 Game” season
  • Deep MiLB rosters, prospect pipeline protection and dedicated MiLB spring draft
  • Contracts, Salary Caps, Player Arbitration and Extensions are part of the roster management experience
  • Luxury Tax options to allow teams to decide on whether they want to operate a “small” or “large” market team
  • Scored and Administered on Fantrax with tons of “premium” features and no need for clunky forum boards
  • Pay League where all funds are paid out after $80 Fantrax Site Fee

If this sounds intriguing to you, read through the exhaustive League Constitution for all the gory details.

If you would like to be considered for franchise ownership, please fill out this Owner Application and a commissioner will contact you.

Thanks for looking…

Bryan Luhrs

League Developer & Executive League Commissioner
Writer & Contributor