Real Deal (Football) Report: Week 3 Recap

If last week was the story of close games and parity, this week was the story of two dominant teams that absolutely look like the Super Bowl favorites we thought they were.

Finish Reading: Real Deal (Football) Report: Week 3 Recap

The defending champion Detroit Lions went up against two undefeated teams in Atlanta and Cincinnati – and obliterated them both.  Detroit scored 290 points behind 41 points from Todd Gurley (Detroit draft pick), 38 points from Brandin Cooks (Detroit draft pick), 22 points from Tyreek Hill (Detroit draft pick), 26 points from Darius Slay (original franchise), 25 from Glover Quin (original franchise), and 19 points from Adoree Jackson (Detroit draft pick).  The Lions would have gone over 300 points had Jackson’s TD return not been called back.  Oh.  And they beat their undefeated opponents by a cool 183 points.

Not to be outdone, the Buffalo Bills dropped a 298.25 outing on New England and Denver, missing the 300 point mark by a single Anthony Brown tackle.  The Bills did it by a well rounded effort – literally 10/20 players scored between 17 and 32 points.  Led by, you guessed it, AJ Mother #($&)#(*$ Green (Trade), and supported by Doug Baldwin (Trade), Devonta Freeman (Trade), Rob Gronkowski (Trade), and Tyrod Taylor (Trade).  I suspect some of the defensive guys were also trades, but I haven’t done the legwork.

The moral of the story is crystal clear, and twofold.

  1. Detroit and Buffalo are insanely good and the clear favorites to meet in the Super Bowl
  2. DON’T trade Detroit draft picks, and DON’T trade Buffalo players.  If you do, you’re a bad person and contributing to the decline of society.

This has been your public service announcement from the competition committee 🙂

Games of the Week:

Atlanta Falcons 239, New Orleans Saints 220: Playoff teams, high scoring, tight games.  The Falcons may have lost an impossible game to Detroit, but they did play exceptionally well and needed it to hold off a game New Orleans team and retain control of the NFC South at 4-1.  The Falcons got an enormous 38 point burst from Chris Thompson, of all people, and a 19 point game from their kicker to overcome rough games from Jay Ajayi and Kelvin Benjamin.  The Saints kept it close via a pair of interceptions from newly acquired Terrance Mitchell, but were undone by a brutal injury to Darren Sproles, a couple of near misses on deep bombs from JJ Nelson, and a strong performance on Monday night from Carson Palmer.

Seattle Seahawks 229, Tennessee Titans 220: This one is simple.  A combined 80 points from Russell Wilson and Sterling Shepherd give the Seahawks the victory by the narrowest of margins over AFC contender Tennessee.  The Titans got a strong (114 point) defensive game, and had to be feeling gratified as Odell Beckham finally broke out (29 points) and recently acquired Case Keenum justified his acquisition costs with 34 points.  The end was brutal, however, as a Giants receiver not named Odell Beckham took a 77 yard score to the house to provide the difference.  That’s a rough situation for a Giants fan who also owns the OTHER Giants receiver.

 

On the Rise:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Every year, we predict the Buccaneers are going to be in the mix.  Every year they struggle out of the gate as Carolina, Atlanta, and New Orleans distance themselves… Wait… what’s that you say?  Not this year?  Not this year.  The Bucs just quietly scored 218 points to knock off divisional rival Carolina by 5 and the upstart Vikings by 25.  Suddenly Tampa Bay is tied with Atlanta at 4-1 and feeling serious confidence in a disruptive Defense that just dropped 155 points in a well balanced effort where no single player scored less than 8 points and Jadeveon Clowney (finally!) went off for 31.  The offense is in rough shape.  But if that defense can keep on playing…

Pittsburgh Steelers: What a difference a week makes in Steel City.  The Steelers finally found their mojo in week 3, and just in time to go 2-0, knock off the scuffling Houston Texans, and move back into their accustomed position in first place.  Same as it ever was.  How did it happen?  Well, Le’Veon Bell finally showed up, Kenny Britt finally caught a pass, and DeForest Buckner finally made a play.  The scary part is that Pittsburgh still only got mediocre games from guys like Ben Roethlisberger and Jarvis Landry.  This thing might be on a steady climb.

New York Jets: My my my.  One week after being competitive and coming away with nothing to show for it, the Jets got back on the horse and delivered the first multi-win week in FRANCHISE HISTORY.  They are now 3-2 and are solidly ensconced in 2nd place in the East.  Yes, their opponents in week 3 have a combined 2-8 record.  Yes, it was literally ALL from Stefon Diggs (46 points) and DeMario Davis (26).  And yes they only scored 172 points.  But 2-0!  J-E-T-S!

Indianapolis Colts: Gotta go one extra here and give a shout out to Indy, who pulled out a 2-0 week with strong wins over both Cleveland and Baltimore.  After a brutal week one offensive performance, the Colts have moved up to a respectable mid-60s offense in both weeks 2 and 3, and investments in guys like Alvin Kamara and Bruce Ellington appear to be paying dividends.  It’s probably too much to ask for Indy to climb back into the mix, but a 2-0 week restores the Colts to the ranks of the respectable.

Honorable Mentions: Kansas City Chiefs, New York Giants, Oakland Raiders, Seattle Seahawks

Sliding Down:

Carolina Panthers: What just happened?  The 2-1 Panthers were engaged in a pair of close games with divisional rivals Tampa Bay and New Orleans as the Falcons were getting smashed by Detroit.  This is Carolina.  The result was an inevitable pair of victories which leave them at 4-1, tied for first, and bringing their intimidating moxie to bear against upstart Atlanta.  But something happened.  Instead of a huge push from DeMarcus Lawrence putting them over the top, it fell just short on Monday night, and the Panthers lost both divisional games by 5 and 7 points respectively.  Cam is struggling, the offensive depth isn’t quite there, and the Panthers are suddenly 2-3 and last place.  What is going on?

Houston Texans: Speaking of “what is going on”, the Texans have to feel totally shell-shocked.  A trendy Super Bowl pick at the beginning of the year, the Texans have scuffled to a 1-4 start, obviously suffering from a Super Bowl hangover.  It’s not disaster from any one player, it’s lethargy across the whole roster.  The highest individual performance was 15.5 points in week 3, and no offensive player even reached 15.  Trevor Siemian is hit or miss, Lamar Miller is mostly getting hit, and the big games of old just aren’t coming.  There’s still plenty of time, but with Jacksonville and Tennessee in the last double, Houston needs to get right soon.

The rest of the AFC North: We’ve already talked about Pittsburgh.  While the Steelers were rocketing back up the standings, the rest of the league was… struggling.  Cleveland, Baltimore, and Cincinnati went a combined 0-6.  Cincy fell from the ranks of the unbeaten, scoring only 167 points in twin losses to Detroit and Green Bay.  Cleveland also dropped a pair, scoring only 146 in rough losses to Indy (now with an offense!) and Chicago.  And not to be outdone, the to point strong Ravens laid a 119 point egg and got crushed by the Colts.  Mercy.  Three teams who had playoff aspirations from the best division in football just combined to average 144 points a piece.  Blech.  We’ll see if this fixes itself or not.

Dishonorable Mentions: Philadelphia Eagles, Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers (attaway, commish squad!)

 

Week 4 Games of the Week: One more double!

Atlanta Falcons vs. Buffalo Bills: Atlanta scored 240 points and got a loss against the undefeated juggernauts of the NFC, the Detroit Lions, and a strong win against Divisional rival Atlanta.  Their reward?  A game against the undefeated juggernauts of the AFC, the Buffalo Bills, and a tough game against divisional rival Tampa Bay.  No rest for the weary.  The Falcons do need Julio Jones to go off to a 70 point tune to have a chance in this one.  Buffalo has looked like a different team since week 1, following up a clunky 179 point opener with 264 and 298.  Scary.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The upstarts of the AFC South, both sitting pretty at 4-1.  That’s sort of where the comparison ends, though, as Atlanta has outscored Tampa Bay by 250 points thus far (50 points per game), and has the #2 point total in the league.  Unless Tampa finds its offense real fast (currently 31st in RDFL), Atlanta is going to be alone in first place, even with a potential loss to Buffalo.

New York Giants vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Here’s why.  The Bucs don’t just get the Falcons, they also get the Giants, who are quietly turning in their own superb season, going 4-1 and turning in a cool #3 in fantasy points scored.  And now they have a Rivers.  This could get bad.

Denver Broncos vs. Oakland Raiders: Don’t look now, but Denver is 3-2, just went over 200 points, and now has a Manning who now has a healthy Odell Beckham Jr.  Initial predictions had Oakland in the driver’s seat in the AFC West, but the Raiders are a Dez Bryant struggle inch on Monday night away from a loss to Washington and a 1-4 record, while the Broncos are at 3-2 and suddenly look pretty competitive.  We shall see.

Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams: I had to do a double check, but you know who else besides the Jets is 3-2 that is never 3-2?  The LA Rams.  They haven’t played all that well, and lack everything but a quarterback, but they have shots at Seattle and Dallas this week, and a good week could have them at 5-2.  Meanwhile, the Seahawks are sitting at 4-1 with games against Indy and the Rams.  They’d better win both, though, because the Arizona Cardinals are lurking with games against Washington and San Francisco – the league’s only two winless teams.

Good luck this week, everyone!  Enjoy the last double until week 12!

Real Deal (Football) Report: Week 2 Recap

A boring week that was NOT.

Twelve games finished with margins of less than 15 points, including 3 with less than 5, and a good half-dozen games were in doubt until Monday night’s final whistle, some of them outstanding.

Finish Reading: Real Deal (Football) Report: Week 2 Recap

Games of the Week: I genuinely can’t choose between these.

Detroit Lions 214, New York Giants 208: Speaking of Monday night showdowns, this one came down to the wire because the Monday night game WAS the franchise game.  And for a possible NFC Championship game preview, this one didn’t disappoint. Todd Gurley and Tyler Lockett went off for the Lions, cancelling out rough games from the Lions stars, and Chris Jones went nuts with two forced fumbles, a pick, and three sacks.  The Lions showed much better balance (12/20 in double digits) but lacked any standout performances (no player with 20 or more points).  You can point to DeMarco Murray’s early exit as the difference in this one.  But to me, this one was Darius Slay, who was everywhere on Monday night (20 points).  A couple less tackles and passes defensed also means a few more points for Eli… and we’re looking at a different outcome.

Cleveland Browns 212, Baltimore Ravens 210: The Ravens are the best 1-2 team I’ve ever seen.  After shelling the Bengals in week one only to lose the game to forfeit due to some random guy I’ve never heard of on the practice squad (check your squads, people!), the Ravens scored over 210 again only to lose by two points to another division rival.  Instead of 3-0 in the division, the Ravens are 1-2 by 2 points and a PS blip.  Oof.  As before, a solid 108 point defensive performance keyed Baltimore, while the equally tough Browns were galvanized by a 34 point, 3 touchdown extravaganza from 2015’s overpriced stud of the year, Michael Crabtree.  Remember back when we thought a double digit salary was outrageous for a FA pickup?  O the halcyon days of innocence.  Ironically, this one too came down to Monday night.  The Ravens, trailing after Sunday, picked up a predictably strong 13.5 point game from Olivier Vernon.  But TE Jerrell Adams has ONE single catch all year long.  It was on Monday night.  It went for 38 yards.  It was worth 4.5 points.  And Cleveland knocks off it’s rival.

Green Bay Packers 215, Cleveland Browns 212: The “Dear lord you threaded that needle so perfectly you should be a kicker!” award goes to Cleveland this week, who managed to win by 2 and lose by 3 in the same exact week.  The runner up goes to the Raiders, who managed to win by 7 and lose by 3.  In this one, Carlos Hyde, Davante Adams and Jason Witten all went over 20 to cue a surprisingly good offensive attack.  The Pack, at 2-1, are a game back of Detroit and looking really strong to start off the season.

Teams Rising:

Atlanta Falcons: This could be the year the Falcons break through in the brutal NFC South.  A 3-0 start and the highest week #2 point total has the Falcons strongly atop the division after a nice 207-204 win over New Orleans.  The Falcs are getting strong contributions up and down their offense.  Julio and Jay Ajayi are getting theirs, but guys like Chris Thompson (28 points) and Mohammed Sanu (14 points) are moving this team from strong to dangerous.

Cincinnati Bengals: The 3-0 squads in our league fall into three categories.  Detroit and Buffalo (ho hum.  Wake me when something surprising happens).  Kansas City and Atlanta (good teams, but a little surprising – expect a loss soon).  And Cincinnati.  WTF?  After a forfeit win in week #1, the Bengals followed up their good fortune with a 2-0 week, knocking off Chicago and Houston to move into first place in the AFC North by a full game and a half.  That’s surprising.  Cincy’s office has been mediocre at best (42 and 63 points in the first two weeks) but their defense has been stellar (110 and 114 points) despite only two total turnovers all year.  They need some playmakers on offense to score points badly, but if Andy Dalton can ever get going and Andrew Luck can ever come back to save TY Hilton, this team could be a legitimate contender.

New York Jets: It feels a little odd to call out a 1-2 team as rising, but it’s worth noting that the New York football Jets have been downright competitive in the first two weeks.  Their two losses have been to Buffalo by 14 and to the Oakland Raiders by 7.  They also smoked the Broncos and are 7th in the AFC in points scored.  Carson Wentz, Melvin Gordon, and Stefon Diggs, the young offensive triumvirate, look good, and the defense has been strong as expected.  Signs of LIFE for the perennially beaten down green machine.

Honorable Mentions: Buffalo Bills, Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs, Tennessee Titans, Los Angeles Chargers, Seattle Seahawks

 

Teams Falling: 

Houston Texans: Real Deal Report curse? The Texans have losses to Jacksonville and Cincinnati and have only beaten the lowly 49ers to kick off the year, and have had only 3 two point games so far this year.  Problems?  Not really.  1-2 is not how the Texans wanted to start, and Jacksonville and Cincy were certainly not games they had fingered on their calendar as losses.  But it’s not even close to the end of the world.  They’ve scored a lot of points (209 and 187) – it’s just that their opponents have played out of their minds.  Jacksonville followed up their 233 point week 1 effort with a 57 point drop in week 2, and Cincy’s week 2 score was 35 points higher than their week 1 score.  That’s bad luck, not bad play.  Rough week, not great, but Houston will be fine.

Carolina Panthers: What is going on?  I feel like Admiral Akbar.  This has to be a trap.  The second I put this down, Carolina is going to run off 13 straight wins and make me feel like a complete fool.  And 2-1 with a loss to Buffalo is not what one usually thinks of as falling.  But Carolina has looked… mediocre.  168 points in week #2 following up an under 200 in week #1 as well.  And if their loss was to Buffalo, their wins have been over SF and Minnesota – who have combined to go 0-6. With the Falcons playing out of their minds and both New Orleans and Tampa Bay looking strong, that’s not going to be good enough for Panthera.  The problem has been on offense.  Zach Ertz has been dynamite.  Cam Newton and Mark Ingram have been disappointingly mediocre.  And the rest of the offense has been an epic disaster.  Take this Sunday, for instance.  Ertz had 17.  Newtown had 11.  Ingram had 12.  And Campanaro, Woods, Blount, and Olsen combined for 6.75 points.  With Olsen out for a while, we’ll have to see where this goes.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Back to earth with a thud.  After that 233 point clubbing of Houston in week #1, the Jags returned to earth on Sunday, dropping games to both the Seahawks and Titans.  There’s no shame in a 176 point double loss to two playoff contenders, but it will do nothing to dispel perceptions that week 1 was a mirage.  The QB situation continues to plague the Jags (hey, that rhymes!).  They got a zero from their signal caller position on Sunday.  A 20 point QB and Jacksonville is 3-0 and reading a very different column.

Dishonorable Mentions: New England Patriots, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings, Dallas Cowboys, Washington Redskins

 

Week 3 Games of the Week:

Arizona Cardinals vs. New York Giants:  2-1.  Check.  Super Bowl Contenders.  Check.  Chip on their shoulder.  Check.  Stiff challenges within their own divisions.  Check.  Arizona and New York enter week 3 in similar places.  Good teams, fine outlooks, one tough loss, and no desire to drop another game. The Giants are hoping like crazy that DeMarco Murray can return, and are hoping even more that their acquisition of Philip Rivers pays dividends after watching Eli struggle.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Detroit Lions: Ka-boom!  3-0 meets 3-0 as the Lions continue their early-season gauntlet of death with a trip to Falcon-land.  Atlanta, meanwhile, gets both Detroit and New Orleans in a tough week.  If the Falcons can go 2-0, they will have initially announced themselves.  1-1 and they are still looking pretty good.  0-2 and they are suddenly looking up again.  It’s a hard conference.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Detroit Lions: The other 3-0 vs. 3-0 matchup.  I almost missed it, but Cincinnati is 3-0.  It seems unlikely they’ll stay that way.

New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles: The NFC East is at stake in this clash.  Both teams are cranky after narrow losses in week 2, but both teams have brutal double games this week and the team that can channel that frustration into a vicious bout of scoring vengeance will seize the driver’s seat for a division title.

Tennessee Titans vs. Seattle Seahawks: An intriguing under the radar game between two first place teams, this is one I’m going to be watching very closely.  Bradford’s health is in question, and will have a big impact on this game.  The reason I’m interested is that both teams have gone 2-1 despite rough starts to the year for key stars.  When guys like Russell Wilson, Zeke Elliott, and the entire NYG offense (Perkins, OBJ and Shepherd are all here), these two teams could get even better.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Houston Texans: I had this one marked on the calendar as a possible AFC Title showdown preview.  It’s lost a lot of it’s luster, as the two teams stagger in at 2-3-1.  But I still believe that both of those teams are really good.  The winner of this one gets some mojo back, while the loser is left searching for answers.  The Steelers badly need for Big Ben and Le’Veon Bell to get back on track.

Good luck everyone, and play more close games.  Be like Oakland (all three games by 7 points or less).  And send Oakland heart medication.  We like the guy and want him to stick around!

Real Deal (Football) Report – Week 1 Recap

Week one, in the books.  It was a rough, weird week.  There are only a few teams feeling on the top of the world.  Some are troubled but confident.  And others are feeling that same impending sense of panic you get when you live in New York City during a disaster movie.  For a one bye-week with the relative health the beginning of the season brings, this week posted some brutal scores with very few 200 point performances.  A couple of quick quarterback hooks and bad injuries compound things further.

Here at the report, the general take is this: Don’t overreact to week 1.   Fortunately, for all that it’s the first week, it means even less this year than in most years because it is only a single week rather than our typical inaugural double.  Things will bet back to normal soon.

Finish Reading: Real Deal (Football) Report – Week 1 Recap

That said, there are some teams who have a reason to panic.  I’m here to break it down for you.

Game of the Week: Detroit Lions 227 over Arizona Cardinals 201

Good game.  The eventual NFC West champ vs. the eventual NFC North champ.  Aside from the Giants, the two highest scores in the NFC.  Same as it ever was.  And what was the difference?  35.4 points from Tyreek Hill.  Did I mention in the off-season that the Super Bowl Champions got Tyreek Hill?  Look, this was a really excellent game.  Both teams played really well.  You could say that a pair of close misses to Torrey Smith and a zero to Run DMC were the game, but you could also say that 25 points from Jalen Mills kept the Cardinals in it.  In the end, this was a hard fought game where both teams came to play and the Lions demonstrated why they are the team to beat in the NFC – too many weapons who can have a big game any given week.

Legitimate Surprises

LA Rams: The Rams are going to have trouble scoring.  This is absolutely true.  But TJ Watt is the real deal, the rest of the defense stepped up as well, and young receivers like Zay Jones are going to improve as the year goes on.  LA isn’t going to be a great team this year, but that defense showed me it has staying power, and I like this team to absolute irritate the competitors and maybe even still a game or two as the year goes on.

Smoke and Mirrors:

Jacksonville Jaguars: Hidden behind the week’s biggest update, a thrashing of the Super Bowl contending Houston Texans, is how the Jaguars got there.  Kareem Hunt’s 52 points aren’t going to happen everybody.  Nor is the defense, however stout, going to intercept two passes (including a Ryan Kerrigan pick six), force two fumbles, and pick off another one.  It’s good news that Cooper Kupp and Danny Amendola look like they are going to be targeted heavily, and Marqise Lee may see more targets with Allen Robinson’s injury, but this is still a team without a quarterback and that I expect to return to earth next week.

 Kansas City Chiefs: Yes the Chiefs led week #1 in scoring in an obliteration of the Patriots.  But look a little deeper and you’ll see that huge chunks of it came from a 33 point outing by Alex Smith, a combined 66 points from its Linebackers, and a Fumble returned for a TD by a defensive lineman.  Where did it not come from?  Running back, safety, and WR4.  The Chiefs can’t expect repeat performances on the plus side, and the things they needed verdicts on all came back negative.  A twin challenge at division rival Oakland and NFC contender Philadelphia loom.

Chill, you’ll be Fine

Houston Texans: David Johnson out 2-3 months is rough.  Painful.  But all told?  No team is better equipped to handle a loss to a stud RB than Houston.  Jacksonville had a buzzsaw week.  Chris Hogan will play better, the defense will generate more big plays (only 1 sack and 1 turnover for a group that accumulated 41 combined tackles), and DJ will be back.  If anything, Austin Hooper’s big day has to be an encouraging sign of things to come, even if it all came on only two catches.  It’s never good to lose week one, never good to lose a stud back, and never good to drop a divisional game. But the Texans will be fine, and this game won’t matter in the least come week 1 of the playoffs.

Oakland Raiders: Frustrating start for the Raiders, who drop a winnable home game to Tennessee to open a tough schedule.  And yes, there are concerns at the back end of the offense, where guys like Jalen Richard and Benjamin Watson did nothing to justify the Raiders faith in them.  But Oakland’s week 1 challenges are more like Houston’s – 1 sack and 1 turnover combined among starting defensive players getting a lot of minutes – that’s going to improve by regression to the mean.  And guys like Tyler Eifert, Dez Bryant, and Jordan Matthews are going to get theirs.  Dropping a game they should have won by a narrow margin hurts, but Oakland will be fine.

Reason to panic

Chicago Bears: That won’t get it done.  The offense didn’t look sneaky for the Bears.  It looked ordinary, or worse.  Four points for Hoyer.  3 for Brandon Marshall.  6 for Gresham.  7 for Forte.  Nothing for Wheaton.  Only Terrance West lived up to his billing.  The scary part is that these don’t seem like natural reversions.  Hoyer and the SF offense looked like the disaster we’ve come to expect, Brandon Marshall and Eli aren’t even reading the same book, let alone getting close to the same page, Gresham is what he is, and Forte is old and in a platoon.  To their credit, the Bears are addressing their issues, bringing in Emmanuel Sanders to replace the injured Cameron Meredith.  But they can’t be happy in Halas Hall about how week 1 played out.

Indianapolis Colts: Ye gods. Indy has had scoring problems for the last three years.  Their offense has depended on two players – Andrew Luck and Julian Edelman.  And, of course, where do the injuries strike?  Edelman is gone for the year.  Nobody knows what’s up with Luck.  And in their absence.  Mercy.  The Colts managed a TOTAL of 20 offensive points, with more than half (10.5) coming from Alvin Kamara.  To be clear, no less than 51 individual PLAYERS scored more points than the entire Colts offense put together.  If we remove Kamara, this number jumps to 280, including 4 punters.  Yes, 280 individual players (almost ten per team!), including 4 punters, scored more points than 6 of the colts top 7 offensive players combined.  This isn’t getting better until (if!) Luck gets back, and even then, it’s not getting good.  This could be the worst offensive team in RDFL history by a wide margin.

Pittsburgh Steelers: So this will get better.  Roethlisberger will score more than 16 points.  Le’Veon Bell will return to his stud form.  And if we’re talking about starting defensive squads missing out on the big play by luck, the Steelers D put together 34 tackles without a single turnover or sack.  It will get a bit better.  But enough better?  The defensive question marks weren’t answered, the secondary looks mediocre, Fournette’s performance relegated even a healthy Yeldon to handcuff status, and with the exception of lone bright spot Jesse James, the supporting offensive cast doesn’t look like it will have much opportunity.  Things will get a lot better for the Steelers than they were in week 1, but winning the AFC North suddenly no longer seems like a sure thing.

Officially Mixed:

New England Patriots: On the one hand, the news on offense was really good.  Charles Clay asserted himself well and Nelson Agholor had a breakout day.  James White is going to be involved on the Patriots offense, and Mike Gillislee is on pace for a bajillion touchdowns.  Despite down days for the geriatric duo of Brady and Gore, this team looks like it could put up a lot of points.  On the flip side, the defense has proved itself sustainably terrible, with only three double digit performances, a pair of zeros, and Eric Berry lost for the year.  The Pats are legit.  But that defense will keep them from being a true threat to the Bills.

 

Big Games in Week #2:

Buffalo Bills vs. Carolina Panthers: Possible Super Bowl Preview?  In week #2?  Yes please.  Both the Bills and the Panthers took care of week #1 business as expected, but less overwhelmingly than either felt comfortable with, especially Buffalo.  Now they meet each other in a game that is both showdown and get-right game.  The winner feels great.  The loser suddenly has some questions.

Detroit Lions vs. New York Giants: I love double weeks!  Week #2 has a couple of doozies.  This is a potential NFC Championship game showdown – and much more of a clash, as both Detroit and New York put up strong week #1 performances.  The loser here doesn’t have question marks.  But the winner has the inside track to top seed in the NFC playoffs.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns: Of course there’s a big game in the AFC North.  There’s ALWAYS a big game in the AFC North because all the teams are in convention.  And here we go.  Baltimore looked more impressive in week 1 (pre-forfeit), but Cleveland had the bigger win, knocking off Pittsburgh.  Whichever team takes this game will grab early control of the North race, pending Cincinnati’s results.  A bit like saying “will have sprinted to the lead at the half mile mark of the marathon”, but hey.  It’s a lead.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Oakland Raiders: Divisional showdown #1 between KC and Oakland comes in week 2, with the winner likely taking control of the AFC West race.  KC looked like the better team in week one, but a reversal in week 2 could have the Raiders up by a game with a tiebreaker in hand.

Real Deal (Football) Report 2017 – Predictions: The North!

We round out our 2017 predictions with the North divisions, both of which were pretty exemplary in 2016.  The AFC North provided our best all around race, with all four teams above 500 and in contention throughout most of the season, while the NFC Norris provided our Super Bowl Champion in the Detroit Lions.  Here we go again!

Finish Reading: Real Deal (Football) Report 2017 – Predictions: The North!

 

NFC North

Detroit Lions (11-5): My literal initial exclamation when opening Detroit’s roster for an initial review.  “Oh yeah.  The ()$&#$() Super Bowl champions got $#(&)#$ Tyreek Hill.  Actually, that’s pretty much the cliff notes version of my NFC North predictions.  The Minnesota Vikings are a year away from being scary and the faffing Lions got faffing Tyreek Hill.  Credit where credit’s due – he drafted the guy in the middle rounds of the 2016 draft after the entire rest of the league passed on him twice.  Shame on the rest of us.  But it still sort of seems unfair.

Look, there’s no getting around it.  This roster is loaded once again.  Stafford at QB.  Ameer Abdullah and Todd Gurley due for a bounce back at RB.  Brandin Cooks (now with a Brady!), Tyreek Hill, and Tyler Lockett at WR.  Martellus Bennet at TE.  That’s a starting seven and no mistake.  And that’s before we note that Patrick Mahomes and Marlon Mack are just chilling on the practice squad, waiting to not be picked off by anybody because they are first rounders.  Bleh.

Actual team portrait of Tyreek Hill, who somehow we all let Detroit draft in like the 3rd round or something. ::sigh::

Perhaps a team that has neglected its defense to focus on offense?  Sorry, nope.  Every position group on this team is solid, It starts with a young and brutal D-Line of Chris Jones, Stephon “I’ll get around Tuitt”

Bwahahaha! Come on. That’s funny! Hahaha!

, “Sorry Malik Jackson, I am for real”, Takkarist climbing Mt. Mckinley, and “Oh yeah, I’m Derek Barnett, the first Eagles 1st round pick to be worth a damn in years”.  It moves to a Linebacking group that has Leonard Floyd and Jamie Collins flanking the less impressive but still starting Todd Davis.  And it ends with a powerful secondary that goes at least 5 to 6 deep with Ronald Darby, Darius Slay, Glover Quin, LaMarcus Joyner, and Adoree Jackson.  Even more bleh.

If there’s one place this team could be vulnerable, it’s offensive depth.  It seems like quite a nitpick (and I think it is), but ask poor Buffalo how injuries can shred a star-studded cast at the worst possible time.

UPDATE: He just traded for Eric Decker.  So much for that depth thing.

Still.  It seems a bit of a foregone conclusion.  The ($#)&#$) Super Bowl champs got (#)$*#$ Tyreek Hill.  The NFC North is all but guaranteed, and Detroit has to be considered the odds on favorite to return to the Super Bowl for the first time in RDFL history.  Triple bleh.

 

Green Bay Packers (8-8): This division is BRUTAL.  it could rival the NFC South this year for sheer top to bottom ridiculousness. The Packers aren’t the favorites, and they don’t have Chicago’s sneak up on you panache, but this team could still make some real noise.  Somehow, Green Bay has dodged the full reload and should return with a very solid team.

Kirk Cousins is good.  Davante Adams is good. Carlos Hyde could either lose his job or be a feature back.  Jamison Crowder should become good soon.  Jason Witten is somehow STILL good (if a little overpaid).  Eli Rogers has had a lot of hype and might become good.  Brandon Oliver, Vernon Davis, and Andre Holmes could all contribute. Mario Addison is an underrated beast.  KJ Wright is a god.  Mason Foster isn’t far behind.  Richard Sherman talks a lot and has great hair.  Patrick Chung and Morgan Burnett talk less and aren’t as good, but score more fantasy points.  Domata Peko always plays super well against Kansas City, so in my mind he’s a top 10 DE.

I don’t know, man.  This team isn’t loaded with studs at every position.  There are holes.  But It has enough studs, enough really good players, and enough depth to be seriously competitive.  If this team was in either western division, it would be competing for a playoff spot.  If this team were in either eastern division, it would be competing for a playoff spot.  But you know what?   The NFC North and the NFC South both suck a lot to be in.

When places got overcrowded in the past, people just went west and stole land from the natives. Perhaps Green Bay can move to the East and steal land from Washington? They ain’t winning anything here…

The big danger for Green Bay is no man’s land.  Detroit is not beatable this year.  And with a loaded NFC South and a hungry Philadelphia, it’s not a great year for the wild card either.  But starting next year, Minnesota is going to become a voracious beast and compete too.  Make no mistake, this Green Bay team does have staying power with young assets, and are ahead of schedule on a rebuild – but I worry it is neither young enough, nor old enough.  Of course, I said the same thing about the Houston Texans last year in this column too – and they ended up in the Super Bowl.

 

Chicago Bears (8-8): The monsters of the Midway, however, are lurking in the shadows.  Mark my words.  This team will surprise.  The Bears are like the Grey Men in Robert Jordan’s the Wheel of Time (What?  I’m a sci-fi nerd?  You hadn’t figured that out already?  Deal with it.).  Your eyes run over them.  You don’t really notice they are there.  They seem so… normal.  And then before you know it, they’ve ripped out your innards.  The RDFL Bears of 2017 are like that.

You look over their roster, and they almost look… bad.  I mean.  Brian Hoyer?  Will Tye?  Terrance West?  Cameron Meredith?  Adolphus Washington? Nick Kwiatkowski?  Andrew Adams?  I mean… who?

And then you suddenly realize that Brian Hoyer is working in a Kyle Shanahan offense and throwing to decent receivers.  It dawns on you that Terrance West is the unquestioned feature back on a ground and pound team.  You realize that Devante Parker might be really good, and that Brandon Marshall and Matt Forte may well have one more year in them.  You say “Meredith… Meredith… where have I heard that name… oh yeah, he’s suddenly the Bears #1 receiver…” You don’t realize anything about Will Tye because let’s face it, these aren’t the Lions and they still have holes – there is nothing about Will Tye to realize.

UPDATE: Cameron Meredith is done for the year.  I have therefore moved the poor Bears behind GB.

 

The bears gonna mess you up. You better watch yo back, fool!

But then you move on to the defense and see that Adolphus Washington and Andrew Adams could earn starting roles out of nowhere.  You can’t help but think “twatkowski” and chuckle every time you see Nick Kwiatkowski’s name, so even though he isn’t likely to be that good, he adds value (also, I am not posting a picture of twatkowski).  You note that Akiem Hicks and Kwon Alexander are studs, Kevin Minter is the leader in the center of the Arizona defense, AJ Bouye is good enough you want to shout “booyah!”, and Ron Parker and Da’Norris Searcy are a pair of damn good safeties.  Frostee Rucker, Junior Galette, and LaMarr Houston could have value if things break right, and Terence Newman may have one more good campaign with a pick-six or two left in his ancient frame.  And you start to feel alarm just as the claw slips in and Chicago rips out your innards.

This team isn’t going to dethrone the Lions.  But it’s absolutely going to sneak up on people, and I honestly don’t think a playoff berth is out of the question.  Pay heed to the Bears, my friends, and don’t say I didn’t warn you.

 

Minnesota Vikings (7-9): What do you do when you start off with a franchise team that has AP and very little else?  You store up a bajillion draft picks, you go without a quarterback for three years, you lose a lot of games, and then you draft ALL. THE. PLAYERS.  All of them.

The Vikings are coming to plunder a village near you. Dak Prescott is the franchise quarterback.  Joe Mixon and Duke Johnson provide a bruising one-two out of the backfield.  And Laquon Treadwell, Allen Robinson, and Tyler Boyd make up an intriguing wideout trio, though only Robinson has really reached his potential thus far.  Jace Amaro and Kyle Rudolph are passable TEs, and Minnesota has a lot of practice squad pieces that can hopefully develop into depth.

Somewhat surprisingly given Minnesota’s self-described “lack of knowledge” on the defensive end (::cough:: ringer! ::cough::), the defensive rebuild has gone even better, bringing in guys like Reuben Foster, Myles Garrett, Joey Bosa, Harrison Smith, Vic Beasley, Phillip Gaines, Marcus Peters, Reshad Jones, Kawann Short, and Noah Spence.  A couple veterans like Paul Posluz (I STILL can’t effing spell it!) nky and Eric Kendricks sprinkled in and blam – Minnesota has a spectacular defense.

One more year.  One more year for Dak to move off of game management mode, Laquon Treadwell to develop, Joe Mixon to get through the rookie blues, and Jace Amaro to turn into a player.  One more year for the rookies and young guys. The Vikings have 23 guys on rookie contracts.  One more Wide receiver.  One more year.  And the rebuild will be over.  Over with a capital O and a capital VER.  OVER like in mother effing CRICKET over.  Over like the comb in Donald Trump’s hair over.  Over.  In 2018, the drought ends.

As a northeastern lib who voted for Hillary, I would never get political on a fantasy sports blog. This is completely about Minnesota’s prospects for victory in 2018.  Completely…

 

AFC North

So first, a shout-out.  This division was awesome last year.  For the first time ever, every single team in the division was competitive all the way through.  There was a point late in the season last year where all four teams  were vying for both the playoffs and the division title – and all four teams finished with above 500 records.  It was a really remarkable division wide performance that I didn’t give nearly enough recognition to.  I don’t think it will be quite as good this year, in part because I think Pittsburgh and Baltimore get a bit more separation from the Ohio teams.  But it should still be a chaotic division with some definite potential for mayhem.

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6): Remember when we were talking about Indianapolis and the LA Chargers?  A quarterback, a defense, and not much else?  And remember how we said it didn’t work?  Well, Pittsburgh is following the same model.  And this is what the model looks like when it works.  Ben Roethlisberger doesn’t stand alone.  He also has Jarvis Landry and Le’Veon Bell.  And the defense isn’t just good.  It’s Grrrreeeaaatttt!

It starts with the linebackers, where Alec Ogletree, Lawrence Timmons, and Tahir Whitehead form a formidable threesome.  Jared Crick, DeForest Buckner, and Brent Urban are a well above average D-line, and the secondary of Byron Maxwell, Sean Davis, Mike Mitchell, Bradley McDougald, and even Jamar Taylor are all very fantasy relevant.  There really are not any critical weaknesses in these positional groups.

This team does have the same challenge as LA and Indy – a drop off in offensive quality.  Roethlisberger is great (if injury prone), Bell is great (if marijuana prone), and Jarvis Landry is sort of great (but possibly prone to Jay Cutler).  After that, though, they have Albert Wilson (he’s a bit of a magic wand), Ju-ju Shuster Smith (he has a bit of a magic name), and the outlaw Jesse James (who is not magic so far as I understand, but can still rob a train like nobody’s business).

Pittsburgh has the talent. And they have the juju. It’s going to be a good year for the Steel City!

Basically, this is what you have to do to be successful.  Rock the defense.  Rock the QB.  Pick up a few studs.  And round out the backside with competent players, not zeros.  The Steelers have the formula, the talent, and the championship pedigree, and I see them back atop with Norris in 2017.

 

Baltimore Ravens (9-7): Baltimore has a fun, fun team.  The type of team you may not necessarily want to have in fantasy, but that you LOVE to watch if you are a 14 year old teenager who loves nothing more than seeing lots of passing touchdowns.  Big arm Joe Flacco  has ZERO running game to speak of, but a cadre of young receiving options who can absolutely fly.  The top four wideouts on this team are Keenan Allen, Amari Cooper, Terrelle Pryor, and Adam Thielen, with even Coby Fleener a solid pass catcher at Tight End.  Can you imagine if the real life Joe Flacco had THAT kind of firepower and weaponry?  I mean, we all know he’d still totally be overpaid and mediocre, but he’d be just slightly less overpaid and mediocre!

It’s fortunate, because as I said, there exists no running game.  Kenneth Dixon was supposed to provide it, but that didn’t work out.  As a result, the top options are Jamaal Williams, Rex Burkhead, Tarik Cohen, and Tim Hightower.  Remember when Baltimore had all the running backs?

It’s a fun squad on defense too. Cliff Avril and Olivier Vernon can both get after the quarterback.  At linebacker, Telvin Smith IS a stud, Terrell Suggs USED to be a stud, and Shaq Lawson WANTS to be a stud.  And the secondary is decent as well, with ball hawking backs like Bradley Roby, Eric Reid, and Lardarius Webb.

Here’s what it’s going to come down to.  The QB is passable.  The defense is good.  There is no such thing as a running back.  And the depth is questionable.  The strength of this team is its quartet of fast young receivers, and it is on them that Baltimore’s fortunes rest.  If they are merely good, this team is a wild card contender.  If they aren’t so good or catch the injury bug, the Ravens could struggle to finish .500.  But if they are great like we all think they could be… the North is well within reach.  We’ll see. With Jay Flacco slinging the rock, what could possibly go wrong?

Baltimore’s hopes rest on these guys… wait… this is actually what came up when I googled talented quartet. I shit you not.

 

Cleveland Browns (8-8): The real NFL has ruined us.  We don’t think of the AFC North as a passing league.  But man, should we ever.  Not only is this division full of close races and competitive times, it has epic firepower.

Let’s recap.

Pittsburgh: Antonio Brown and Jarvis Landry

Baltimore: Keenan Allen, Amari Cooper, Terrelle Pryor, Adam Thielen

Cleveland: Mike Evans, Just as Mike Crabtree, Not quite as Mike Jeremy Maclin, and not at all Mike Marvin Jones.

That’s ten really really strong wide receivers, and I give Cleveland the nod to have the best of the group.  That positions the offense really well.  Blake Bortles may or may not be a productive quarterback for them, but Isaiah Crowell is poised to be a breakout running back this year.  Erik Swoope is a hole at Tight End, and there’s no depth at all to speak of, but the starting offense is the best in the league, pound for pound.

Wide receivers in the AFC North, and on Cleveland specifically.

The trick for Cleveland is that the defense is second tier.  It’s not bad, not like some teams we’ve seen.  The players are decent and for the most part starting caliber.  Brandon WIlliams is a great nose tackle, Karlos Dansby is still an excellent linebacker, and it’s a nice secondary with Jordan Poyer, Tyvon Branch, and Joe Haden, though Haden is one of those fantastically talented real-life guys who doesn’t do quite as well in fantasy.  But there are holes.  And the poor holes have names.  Names like Kyle Emanuel, the 5th round backup who Cleveland is looking to start at LB.  Names like Nate Orchard and Tanoh Kpassagnon, two defense ends you’ve never heard of for good reason.  And names like Ibraheim Campbell, who keeps the secondary from reaching an actual A rating.  It’s not a terrible defense – its just simply not on the same plane as the Steelers and the Ravens – hence the third place rating.

Still, the offense has enough firepower that if things break badly for the other teams in the division, Cleveland could surprise as a playoff team, like it threatened to do for most of last year before being doomed by a brutal back-end schedule.

Cincinnati Bengals (5-11): At first glance, Cincy isn’t as flashy as the rest of the division.   They do have the badly underrated T.Y. Hilton catching passes from the also badly underrated Andy Dalton.  (RDFL is over before the NFL playoffs.  Dalton’s decent during the regular season.  Chill.)   But after that, the offense doesn’t have a whole lot – Rishard Matthews, Virgil Green, Jaron Brown, Jeremy Kerley, Theo Riddick, and Ryan Fitzpatrick.  Slim pickins.  Certainly nothing like the high octane passing attacks they are competing with.

That said, this team is still flashy.  It just comes on defense.  Because the 2017 Bengals have some play-makahs!  Cam Heyward, Dee Ford, Geno Atkins, Vontaze Burfict, Reggie Nelson, Vinnie Rey, and even BJ Goodson.  Sacks and stuffs are coming your way if you are a fan of this team.

So why 5-11 if I like the defense that much?  Well, I really don’t like the offense.  And while I love the playmakers, I’m not sure I love the depth, and I definitely don’t love the secondary.  It’s going to get picked apart.  And you can’t get your secondary picked apart in a division with legendary receiving groups.  (Yes.  I know that doesn’t actually matter in RDFL.  I’m writing a damn sports column.  Didn’t I JUST tell you to chill?  Drink a beer and appreciate the artistry.)  But beyond that, guys like Burfict really haven’t put up a lot of stats from a fantasy perspective, and guys like Dee Ford haven’t put up any stats at all.

Look, it’s distinctly possible I’m too low on the Tiger Cats.  If some of the offensive guys break out, and if the defense plays up and not down, they could definitely mount a challenge.  And I picked them fourth last year and they led the division for half the year before finishing in a three way tie for second at 9-7.  So they could certainly surprise.  But the offense is so weak, and the defense has enough holes… I just don’t see it happening.

Don’t like your predictions? Don’t blame the messenger. Go out and prove me wrong!

 

Anyway, my playoff predictions:

AFC East: Buffalo

AFC North: Pittsburgh

AFC South: Houston

AFC West: Oakland

AFC Wild Card: Kansas City

AFC Wild Card: Baltimore

 

NFC East: NY Giants

NFC North: Detroit

NFC South: Carolina

NFC West: Arizona

NFC Wild Card: Atlanta

NFC Wild Card: Philadelphia

 

AFC Championship: Buffalo over Houston

NFC Championship: Detroit over Arizona

 

Super Bowl: Buffalo over Detroit.   It’s hard to repeat, and the Bills are due for some luck.

 

 

 

Four trades that could have significant playoff implications

Like any other season of Real Deal Baseball, there have been no shortage of trades. Some teams are loading up (Miami Marlins, New York Yankees), while some are building for next year (Tampa Bay Rays).

With the playoffs around the corner (already?), we are going to focus on moves made in the past month that have the most potential impact for this year’s playoff run. Instead of providing all of the fine details in these trades, we will focus on the players that have the most impact.

  1. Houston gets Khris Davis

In a move that helps Milwaukee replenish some of his prospects, Khris Davis goes to the Astros for Teoscar Hernandez, Jason Martin, and Jake Rogers. The latter two players were then flipped to the Cubs in a deal that brought Ervin Santana back to Milwaukee. Like Tampa Bay, the Brewers definitely have a plan for the playoffs.

  1. New York Yankees get Brian Dozier

The Yankees, for what it’s worth, also acquired Carlos Carrasco, Jarrod Dyson, Miguel Gonzalez, and Brad Ziegler in one large trade. But its Brian Dozier who I see as having the most potential, as Dozier sits as the third best overall fantasy player behind Stanton and Machado over the past 30 days. In this deal, the Yankees sent three prospects for Dozier and a late pick. Dozier could be a difference maker come playoff time, and even right now, in the midst of a tight race with Boston for the division.

  1. Milwaukee gets Justin Turner, Andrew McCutchen

One of a number of Tampa Bay sell off moves (He seems to have a definitive plan for next year…), this move saw Milwaukee getting Justin Turner, Andrew McCutchen, and a decent reliever in Joe Smith. Tampa Bay’s haul, as expected, was a number of prospects/young players, headlined by Blake Snell. A heavy price, perhaps, but the Brewers now have a combined (at the moment) 975 extra points in their offense, which will help going into the playoffs.

  1. Miami gets Giancarlo Stanton

Okay, so I am cheating a bit here, in that this deal was more than a month ago, but a deal involving Giancarlo Stanton—given the season he is having—should be mentioned here. Over the past 30 days, (as of this moment) Stanton has been the best player in fantasy, averaging nearly a full point more than the next best player (Manny Machado.) He paid a steep price (Yu Darvish, Christian Yelich, and Eddy Rodriguez), but this could be a deal that has huge implications come the playoffs. As the owner of Arizona, I hope not. =)

Other notable acquisitions that could have playoff implications (Sorry if I missed any, but I tried not to):

Arizona: Alex Wood, Zack Greinke

Boston: Sonny Gray, Kevin Kiermaier

Houston: Logan Morrison

Kansas City: Marwin Gonzalez

Miami: Cody Allen