2017 Real Deal Dynasty baseball season retrospective and awards
For a little while, it looked like history would be repeating itself. The Cleveland Indians seemed poised to match the Champion Real Deal Indians, fresh off a staggering year of utter dominance. (You’ll recall that both the Real Deal Cubs and MLB Cubs both won last year…) Alas, the upstart Yankees thought otherwise.
Let’s take a quick look back at our season.
First, congratulations to all of our playoff teams: Los Angeles Dodgers, Washington Nationals, Kansas City Royals, New York Yankees, Cleveland Indians, Arizona Diamondbacks, Boston Red Sox, Houston Astros, Milwaukee Brewers, and Miami Marlins.
And to the final four: Red Sox, Indians, Nationals, Marlins. Finally, to our championship teams, the Nationals and Indians. Before I get to the Indians, a quick shout out to the Nationals. First, the Nationals had to get out of the wildcard round and beat the Dodgers. From there, they had to play my team, the Diamondbacks, the number one National League team for the regular season, and a team that scored a few hundred more points than the Nationals.
The Nationals finished seven games behind the division winner Miami, a team which—after squeaking by the Diamondbacks in Round 2—they had a resounding victory over in the National League Championship round. This Nationals team battled all through the season and to finish second place behind Jeff’s juggernaut of a team was impressive. Cheers! Finish Reading:
In the American League, the Yankees culminated their turnaround season by making it into the playoffs, and even beating the Royals to get into the next round, only to fall to Jeff. The other teams in the AL shouldn’t be unfamiliar to anyone, as the Astros and Red Sox were both back in the playoffs, with Boston beating Houston in round 2 and losing out to Cleveland in the AL Championship. Boston continues to knock at the door of a championship and it would seem that he’s only a few moves and some lucky runs away from getting there.
Now onto the Indians. Perspective: In 2015, the Indians went 6-87. In 2016, they were 37-56. This year, they went 83-10. So, in two years, a 77-game swing. I am hereby instituting a league-wide rule in which nobody can trade Jeff any players, ever. All kidding aside, what an incredible year, and congratulations to Jeff.
In the rest of the league, there weren’t other “major” developments, aside from some jumps and some drops from 2016 to 2017, some of which will be covered below. Some teams are still in rebuild mode, and some may end up there sooner than later. This offseason is primed to be a very interesting one, for sure, but for now, let’s just get into the awards for this year.
World Series MVP:
This goes to Matt Carpenter, who accounted for the most points for the Indians in their championship scoring period at 33.009, in just 15 AB. In these, Carpenter had 7 hits, 6 runs, 2 RB, and 14 TB.
Right behind him, though, were Francisco Lindor (31.634 points, 6 RBI, 15 TB), and Trea Turner (30.964 points, 4 RBI, 16 TB.) Also, Jose Quintana’s name should be mentioned, as he accounted for 29.75 points with 9 IP, 10K, 1 QS, in a complete game.
Cleveland’s depth was evident though, as 7 different players scored more than 20 points in this scoring period. DEEP.
There were a lot of good trades this year—including these four big ones—so having to pick one is difficult. But personally, it felt a bit unfair not to list one of Jeff’s trades this year as the best, given his massive turnaround. And in looking back at all of his move’s including those made in the offseason last year, one stuck out not only for the impact at it on Jeff’s team, but also for the other team.
The deal was as follows:
Chicago White Sox sends:
Prior to this year, Pham’s best fantasy year topped at 114 points. This year he had 554, while Difo had 228 in a utility role, and Jones being more of a flier. Abreu, on the other side, was the Indian’s third best player in terms of overall points. He’s also on 2.16 salary in his 3rd year.
The worst trade, in my opinion, is the trade that wasn’t made. Based on that, the worst trade this year was from the Philadelphia Phillies, who made zero trades on the year. In looking at this year’s transactions, they appear to be the only team that made no team-to-team trades.
The turnaround of the Indians is well-documented, and has been the main storyline of the league since before the season even kicked off. A 46-win increase is nothing short of incredible, but for this particular section, I’m going to focus on another impressive turnaround, which is that of the New York Yankees.
Like the Indians, the Yankees went 37-56 in 2016. In 2017 though, Yankees improved to 69-24. The rise of players like Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, and Luis Severino helped this turnaround in a massive way, but so did a number of the trades that the team made. This includes the following acquisitions: Brian Dozier, Carlos Carrasco, Jarrod Dyson, Denard Span, David Robertson, Yangervis Solarte, Hanley Ramirez, Brad Hand, and even more than this.
This is all to say that, even if you are low-to-middling team, a turnaround can be made quickly if you have some good young talent and a willingness to get aggressive on the trade market, which seems to be a main factor in determining success and ultimately winning this league. Just ask Jeff.
Last year I took I look at the overall standings and for one reason or another, the 23,000 point-level seemed to be a benchmark for success. Nine teams reached this plateau this year, including (in reverse order): Washington, Tampa Bay, Arizona, Boston, Milwaukee, New York (Y), Miami, Houston, and Cleveland. Of those nine teams, eight made the playoffs. A solid indicator of success.
(Note: The only teams that made the playoffs that did not reach 23,000 were Kansas City at 22,506 and the Los Angeles Dodgers at 20,712.)
Who will be next year’s Cleveland? Well, here is an interesting thing to consider, if only just for fun. Both the Indians and the Yankees were 37-56 last year, and both teams made impressive turnarounds. This year, there were a number of teams that finished around this mark. This includes: Atlanta Braves, San Francisco Giants, Cincinnati Reds, Minnesota Twins, and the Oakland Athletics. Could one of these teams be the next big turnaround next year, or will it be another team has been making moves with an eye toward the future.
Since this league began, the champions have been the Miami Marlins, the Milwaukee Brewers (two years in a row), the Chicago Cubs, and the Cleveland Indians. There have been a number of powerhouse teams, or teams on the rise, that in recent years can’t seem to get over the hump, though. This includes, first and foremost, the Boston Red Sox, but also teams like the Houston Astros, the Arizona Diamondbacks, and the Kansas City Royals. Can Boston finally win a world series? Can Arizona make a playoff run? These are things to monitor going into the 2018 season.
Overall this year, it’s been a fun league with very little drama, if any. I hope that you all come back to join us in 2018 with an eye toward denying any past champion a repeat opportunity.
I am terrified to write this post on a Tuesday night. The last time I wrote a post on a Tuesday night it congratulated New Orleans and Tampa Bay and wondered what was happening with Carolina – only to have seven points in DeMarcus Lawrence stat corrections render my post ridiculous the following day.
As I write this, 8/16 (50%!) games are within 15 points, 4/16 (25%!) are within 5 points, and a ridiculous 3/16 games are within a SINGLE point. All three involve potential playoff teams. Man. It’s great for excitement and tight games, but man it’s weird to be waiting for a single stat correction to decide all of our fates.
First, it’s HARD to be undefeated. Detroit and Buffalo had cruised through their schedules to point, obliterating all comers, and KC had taken advantage of a favorable schedule to cruise to 7-0 as well. Detroit was obliterated by Carolina. Buffalo took a punch from Cincy and barely surprised, and KC, for now, survived Houston by half a point on stat corrections.
Second, I say it every few weeks, but Oakland literally has the worst luck of any fantasy team ever – year after year. This week? After holding a comfortable lead over Baltimore heading into Monday night, the Raiders lost it in the third quarter when an errant Mitch Trubisky passed bounced through the open hands of what should have been a sure interception and ricocheted directly to Zach Miller in the endzone. At present reckoning, the Raiders have lost by a point. After a league leading number of losses by less than 10 points last year, the Raiders have already lost two games this year by that amount.
Third, parity is dead. Regrettably, the league is separating itself neatly (much like American society) into clearly delineated lines of have and have-not. Only a single decision (the mighty NFC South) has three teams at .500 and above. Only a single division (the mighty NFC South) has three teams within two games of the lead. And only two divisions (The AFC North and South) have two teams within a game of first place. Beyond that, a look across the league reveals a tale of division leaders running away, clear wild card teams, and teams competing for the first draft pick.
AFC East: Buffalo @8-0, no other team closer than 3-5.
AFC West: KC @8-0, Oakland at 5-3, nobody else better than 3-5
NFC East: NYG @7-1, nobody else better than 3-5
NFC North: Detroit @7-1, nobody else better than 4-4
NFC West: Seattle @7-1, nobody else better than 4-4
Competitive games. But not competitive seasons.
Game of the Week:
Buffalo Bills 234, Cincinnati Bengals 222: For a long time on Sunday, it looked like all three undefeated teams would go down to defeat. The Bengals rode 35 points from TY Hilton and 32 from the Burfict Storm to take a lead over the Bills. Buffalo punched back with 130 points from it’s defense, and in the irony to top all ironies, survived Cincy’s upset bid behind 42 points from AJ Mother ()&#$*(#$ Green – traded to Buffalo from Cincinnati for the immortal Da’Rick Rogers and a late first rounder. Youch. Buffalo stays undefeated, but a game Cincy team served notice that it is not going away any time soon. And potentially not any time late.
Jacksonville Jaguars: And that would be how you announce that you have staying power. After a pair of strong performances to get into first place, the Jags stay there with a convincing 230-201 win over resurgent Pittsburgh. As it has been all year, the defense powered the Jags to the tune of 135 points. Even more remarkable, though, is that the offense has gone from liability to at least moderately credible. Kareem Hunt, David Njoku, and Cooper Kupp make this one of the strongest draft classes in real deal, as Kupp and Hunt may well be the two best rookie skill players of the draft. Danny Amendola has also proved to be a strong role player and turned in 22 points. Jacksonville is playing some great football and at 6-2, could be very hard to beat. For the Steelers… well, 5 interceptions from the QB will doom just about anyone, but when you can put up over 200 points with that? And can point to Le’Veon and Jarvis Landry both on track? Pittsburgh will be just fine.
Minnesota Vikings: Now that’s the sort of game the Vikings were expecting a lot more of. 30 points from Dak Prescott, 18 from Kyle Rudolph, 17 from Duke Johnson, and 115 defensive points where 8/11 players got into double figures and Reshad Jones scored 27. That’s what Minnesota has been expecting. Why haven’t they gotten more of it? The can’t miss draft picks are missing. Another zero for consensus top 10 pick Laquon Treadwell mixes with a solid but uninspiring 12 for consensus top 10 pick Joe Mixon. The Vikings are close. is this the start of putting it all together in Minnesota?
Indianapolis Colts: The Colts looked hung out to dry in the pre-season. Luck was injured. Edelman was gone for the year. The offense looked historically bad. The defense looked like the epitome of mediocrity. After a 197-162 dousing of the 49ers, the Colts are all of a sudden sitting at 4-4, just one game out of the wild card, and actually in contention for the playoffs. The offensive players, particularly guys like Kamara and Gallman have been better than expected. The defense has risen above mediocre to become downright good (especially in a consistent secondary that averages in double figures), and the schedule hasn’t been fantastic. A sterner test awaits this week in Tennessee, but Luck is back soon… if they can hold off until then..
Detroit Lions: When you are the consensus NFC Super Bowl pick and expected to death march through the conference slate, this counts as a thud. 170 points in an uninspired 65 point loss where only two players on the team (Tyreek Hill and Leonard Floyd) broke 20. If this wasn’t fantasy, I’d point to the coaching and how hard it is to maintain motivation over the long season. Look, Detroit is going to be fine. I still think they are the Super Bowl favorites. But this was a chink in their facade of invulnerability, and a huge boost to the prestige of Carolina, who rode 23 points from rookie RB Aaron Jones to a 234 point performance and, potentially, home field advantage throughout the postseason.
LA Rams: Welp. Fair or not, when you haven’t been a competitive team for a long team, when you start to string together good games, you have to go out and prove it in a show me game. Not so much. The Rams showed us they don’t quite belong after laying a 40 point offensive egg – of which 22/40 points came from Marqise Goodwin. Besides him, only two guys hit double digits as the Rams rode Marcus Mariota’s injury to a brutal 118 points, and left a winnable game against division rival Seattle on the table. Now at 4-4 and behind on the tiebreaker, LA faces a likely insurmountable climb back towards contention.
Philadelphia Eagles: It was a game effort from the Birds of 2017, but it simply wasn’t to be. Injuries to Derek Carr and Ty Montgomery have scuttled a once promising season for Philadelphia, but just as much the rest of the offensive cast never quite showed up. The Eagles are 29th in the league in total offense, and trailing such worthies as Miami, Chicago, and San Francisco. A 3-5 record and four game deficit against the league leading Giants is too much to overcome, and the Eagles have wisely turned their attention to 2018 – and hopefully scoring some points.
Dishonorable Mentions: New York Jets, Green Bay Packers
Games of the Week:
Arizona Cardinals vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Last week’s game against Philadelphia was an elimination game for the scuffling Cardinals. And while the red birds eliminated the green ones, it can’t be said that they passed the test with flying colors. Even if they are colorful birds. It’s more like the colors crawled morosely over the ground and staggered drunkenly across the finish line about two hours after the race officially ended. Coupled with a win, it was decidedly inconclusive. So they get another shot. Arizona gets Tampa, whose season mojo has completely changed after their devastating stat correction loss to Carolina. Instead of 4-1, the Bucs are now 4-4 and in last place, with their season in serious danger of slipping away. Like Arizona – Philly last week, the winner of this game lives to fight another day. The loser… well… doesn’t. Arizona gets Matt Ryan back from the bye, but loses Shady McCoy. It could be tough.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Cincinnati Bengals: The Seahawks get a chance to continue to run away and hide in their division, while the Bengals reward for playing Buffalo so tightly is a date with the 7-1 Seahawks. The Bengals remain an enigma – only 14th in fantasy points, mediocre on offense, mediocre on defense, and forced to start Ryan Fitspatrick at QB – and yet only a half game out in the AFC North. Seattle, on the other hand, makes no secret of it’s secret sauce – offense. Though the bye week, and the subsequent loss of a lot of starters on both teams makes this one a lot more questionable than it otherwise would be. Even strength, I go Seattle. On a bye? Tough to say.
Detroit Lions vs. New Orleans Saints: New Orleans may be the only team approaching Oakland for sheer bad luck. Denied an undefeated season by stat correction, denied a victory over Carolina and the division lead by stat correction, the Saints now have the good fortune of catching Detroit coming off it’s first loss in a long, long time. The Lions will be vengeful, bitter, and fired up. The Saints will be without Jimmy Graham, Darqueze Dennard, and Jeff Heath. Doh.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans: Tennessee enters an obvious trap game with decidedly mixed feelings. On the one hand, they are solidly 6-2 and boast a top 10 defense. On the other hand, they just lose OBJ for the year and are somehow tied with a high-flying Jacksonville Jaguars team that has come out of nowhere to give aggressive challenge. Indy wasn’t supposed to compete with Indy. But Indy has been competing with other teams. The Titans should win this game. Need to win this game. But in their first contest without OBJ? And still down Sam Bradford? This one has will require some serious mental fortitude.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Kansas City Chiefs: One of the few old fashioned battles between division leaders happening in an underwhelming week 6 slate, Pittsburgh is in the midst of a rather brutal slate of games (Baltimore, New Orleans, Jacksonville, KC, Cincinnati, Detroit). How’s that for a tough six game sled? 1-2 thus far, and facing a stern challenge from the rival Bengals, Pittsburgh can’t afford to overlook the Chiefs this week. Fortunately, neither team is particularly burdened by bye weeks, meaning that this should be a fun one!
I guess the question here is…WHY?! The Hawks won 71 games last year – the most in the history of the league – and then inexplicably blew the roster to smithereens. I just don’t get it. Sure, picks are nice. But isn’t winning nicer? Maybe the Hawks felt like their success was unsustainable, but I don’t know. That team had been very good since the beginning. It was built for present and long-term success. There weren’t cap issues. I just…don’t get it. Looking at the Hawks roster, it’s clear that the team is trying to lose as many games as possible this year. The guard and flex spots have intentionally been left empty. There is only one player on the bench, and it’s Kevon Looney. Atlanta has been trying like mad to move Dwight Howard (he’s available for a future first-round pick, in case you haven’t heard). And there’s really not much more to be said about this team. They’re racing to the bottom. That being said, they did manage to win just about all of the trades they made this summer. And there’s no denying they’re set up for the future. But still. They won 71 games last year!
Key additions: Derrick Favors
Key subtractions: An entire 71-win roster
What we thought was going to become the D’Angelo Russell/Justise Winslow team has suddenly become the Jusuf Nurkic team. If he can keep up any semblance of what he showed in limited time in Portland this spring, the Celtics have themselves a stud. This team, formerly one of the league’s very worst, is slowly getting better. De’Aaron Fox and Bam Adebayo will be awesome, but maybe not right away. Two of my favorite guys in this year’s draft, but they’re blocked by George Hill (probably just for this season) and Hassan Whiteside (admittedly a much bigger mountain to climb). We’ll see if Russell can turn his career around as the de facto primary scorer/playmaker in Brooklyn. Winslow should continue to develop and become a key cog in Miami. Montrezl Harrell landed in a perfect spot for a bigger role with the Clippers. The team is still devoid of quality depth, but the slow and steady progress here among the youngsters is definitely worth noting.
Key additions: De’Aaron Fox, Bam Adebayo
Key subtractions: none
Three years ago, this was a team that had a chance to draft Andrew Wiggins and Joel Embiid, but instead ended up with Noah Vonleh and PJ Hairston. This was the team of Deron Williams, of Thomas Robinson, of Ed Davis and John Jenkins. It was an absolute dog. So when I took it over, I traded every single player I could. Steven Adams is the only remainder from that old regime. I picked up three top-ten picks in 2015 and whiffed on all of them, although Willie Cauley-Stein looked awesome to close out the season last spring and maybe he’ll keep it up with Boogie gone for good. As a result, the team was so bad that I got the #2 pick in 2016, landing Brandon Ingram, who was also terrible. Each of the last two years were about two things: 1. Acquiring as many assets for the future as possible, and 2. Making a ton of small moves to claw my way back up from the wasteland this team has been mired in since the inception of the league. For years, it was about planting seeds (WCS, Ingram, maybe Stanley Johnson, maybe Cedi Osman) and carefully plucking unwanted role players away from other teams using cash and picks (Patty Mills, Richaun Holmes, even Derrick Rose) in the hopes that I would someday land a crown jewel to put on top of the pile of garbage. That day finally came when Markelle Fultz fell to the second pick (and don’t get me wrong, I love Lonzo Ball, but Fultz has all the makings of a franchise talent). Finally! It has been and continues to be a very slow rebuild, but one can finally see the light at the end of the tunnel here. The full lineup, for the first time, actually looks promising and it could even be decent. These Nets will be one of many teams competing for the final playoff seed in the Rast and the right to get smoked by Indiana and lose out on being in the lottery. I would bet on this team to finish in second place in the division. And that’s the point where I need to stop writing because otherwise I’ll end up putting some evil jinx on my team.
Charlotte has been a good team for a while now with no real path to the division title. But with the Hawks evaporating themselves, the Hornets are primed and ready to win the title – it’ll be between them and Miami. The key thing for this team is depth. This is a DEEP team with four quality players riding the pine and Harry Giles in waiting to add to that eventually (hopefully). Kemba Walker is obviously the main man here. He just continues to get better and better. I’m excited to see what he can do with not one, but two true pick-and-roll centers in Dwight (if they can finally get him to do it) and Cody Zeller. Bazemore and Bradley are poised for their biggest seasons yet because of the sheer lack of talent around them. I think Porter and Warren both take another step forward this year and we’ll be looking at both of them as major contributors to this team’s success. Clint Capela is going to go nuts playing with CP3 – think of the lobs! – and Kanter will continue to eat second-string bigs off the bench for the Knicks (unless they are stupid enough to start him). Overall, this is just a very solid, well-composed team. They might be the third best team in the East behind Indiana and our next team…
Key additions: Harry Giles
Key subtractions: Ian Clark
Will this finally be the year for Chicago? Each year, it seems like something has gone terribly wrong and they underperformed. Most recently it was the Kevin Durant injury. Missing 20 games last year really hurt this team. But at full force, and somehow under the salary cap, the Bulls are contenders. Whiteside, in the final year of his absurd contract, is no longer a novelty player and is now legitimately probably the best fantasy center in the league outside of KAT and Boogie. Wiggins’ scoring might take a hit with Butler in town, but I think he’s much more suited to being the third banana and having some of that pressure lifted off of him will improve his game overall. Rubio really improved last year and is entering his prime. Being in Utah could be really good for him. To really reach the pinnacle, the Bulls are going to need Aaron Gordon and Tobias Harris to realize their potential. They’ve skirted by on potential promise for a while now; it’s time for them to show what they’re really made of. But even if they don’t this team has depth in spades. Juancho, Livingston, Abrines, Pondexter and White should be useful this year. Anything Chicago gets from Stephenson and Parsons is just gravy. This team is poised for big success this season. But…we’ve got to talk about the cap situation. It’s precarious at best. The Bulls picked up $19 million in cap space through pick swaps and the Derrick Rose salary dump and are still only $2 million clear of the limit. Parsons, at $3 million, is going to need to come off IR soon, which will immediately put them over. Add Abrines and White from the minors and Pondexter, whenever he’s clear, and the team is now about $7 million over. Abrines can only stay in the minors for 14 more games, but white can hang for more than half the season. Chicago is going to have to get creative to get back under. It definitely makes the Tyler Zeller contract a head-scratcher.
Key additions: A whole chunk of cash
Key subtractions: Derrick Rose
This is one case where the rebuild was definitely called for. The team had two aging stars in LeBron and Melo, and beyond Draymond Green and Markieff Morris, not a ton else. Morris and Green are still young enough and on friendly contracts to be part of the tail end of a rebuild, so there wan’t a huge need to trade them away. The Cavs turned LeBron and Melo into four first round picks, which in turn turned into Dennis Smith Jr., Jayson Tatum and Zach Collins. Those are three tremendously talented prospects and well worth the return for Cleveland, considering where they’re at right now. Smith is the best athlete to enter the NBA in a long time. His one mistake was going to NC State and playing for the worst college basketball coach of all time. Mysteriously, the same “where’s the defense? he can’t win” dum-dum arguments that Markelle Fultz mostly avoided in Washington buried Smith, which was unfair and resulted in him falling all the way to the Mavs with the ninth pick, where he is almost sure to take the torch from Dirk as Dallas’ next lovable franchise player. He’s a favorite to win Rookie of the Year and my personal favorite from this year’s draft. I would have taken him at #2 if Fultz weren’t there. Tatum and Collins are buried on their team’s depth charts, but both are excellent long-term bets. And I don’t think it’ll take long for Tatum to prove he’s better than Jaylen Brown. The rest of this roster is not very noteworthy. I think Joe Ingles will have an awesome year and will be an enticing trade asset on an expiring contract. Cleveland is definitely preparing for the future here.
Key additions: Dennis Smith Jr., Jayson Tatum, Zach Collins
Key subtractions: LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony
Clearly through with being a lottery team, Dallas shocked the league by acquiring James Harden in one of the final superstar trades we might be seeing for a little while. Best of all, the Mavs didn’t have to pay a king’s ransom to get him. Pair him with the magical Nikola Jokic and suddenly you’ve got a playoff contender. This team has a really interesting “Island of Misfit Toys” quality to it, but I think it works for them. There are a lot of nontraditional but still really useful players here. Oladipo will be option 1B for a terrible Pacers team, which means he’ll probably score 20 PPG. Ilyasova is one of the few people on the Hawks who’s played professional basketball for a living before. The Other Curry should flourish (update: never mind :() in a more off-ball role this season under Carlisle, the guard whisperer. Hernangomez the Younger, #CallWillieUp and Kuzminskas are sneaky-useful players for a playoff team. And Tony Allen might start at small forward for the Pelicans! This is an exciting team and definitely one to watch.
Key additions: James Harden, Victor Oladipo, Ersan Ilyasova
Key subtractions: Nikola Mirotic
I really think this team just needed some TLC over the past couple of years. I mean, seriously, why were Josh Smith and Danny Granger on this roster for so long? The new Nuggets owner has gotten off to a nice start, starting to clear out some of the cobwebs and skeletons from this team. You look at the top four on this roster – Marcus Smart, Devin Booker, Gary Harris and Jaylen Brown – and you think, hey, that’s a really nice young team. But it kind of falls off from there. Booker looks like a star in the making, and Harris remains one of the most underrated players in the NBA – he might be the best young two-way shooting guard in the league outside of Klay Thompson (who still counts as young I suppose). Flipping CJ McCollum for him and Ntilikina was a nice move. Frank is a highly interesting prospect and worth taking a shot on. Markkanen fell in the draft and was a nice scoop. Add all that to their weird mix of big men – Olynyk, Arthur, Faried and Muscala – and you have a really interesting, really weird team. It’s definitely not bad. I think with some more tweaks it could even challenge for a playoff spot. This is a team I’m going to be keeping a close eye on this season and if the rookies turn out well (they’re both getting a lot of playing time, to be sure), this could be a bit of a dark horse team. Stay tuned.
Key additions: Gary Harris, Frank Ntilikina, Lauri Markkanen
Key subtractions: CJ McCollum
Detroit is another interesting team, and I’m not quite sure what to make of it. There are a lot of players to like here. James Johnson is the MMA Renaissance man who had his best season ever at age 30 after almost being out of the league. Jahlil Okafor is a redemption story waiting to happen. He’s still a damn good scorer. Just needs a better situation. Ish Smith could very well continue to outperform Reggie Jackson. Willy Hernangomez is a bright spot on a Knicks team going all in on its youth. Lou Williams is a sixth man of the year candidate. All of these players are extremely useful. But it’s pretty obvious what this team is missing: star power. There’s really no hope of anyone on the roster becoming a star or anything above a good starter, which you obviously need to win in this league. By no means is this a bad team – it’s just not particularly great, either. With some smart trades and picks, this team is looking noticeably better than a year ago. It’s possible they could make a playoff run if everything breaks right, but this team is kind of looking like it’ll be stuck in purgatory this season.
Ho hum. Another year, another run to the Finals for Golden State. It’s hard to write an offseason recap for this team because they did precisely zero this summer, which was by no means a bad idea. This is a roster that’s still built to win and win for a long time. Curry, Klay, Lopez, Middleton – all still great players. And Turner will be better than ever as the Pacers’ main man. The Warriors will again be one of the toughest teams in the West. It’s worth pointing out that a bit more quality depth would be nice (JJ Barea doesn’t belong in the starting lineup for a championship contender), but I suppose that would just be nitpicking. Look for the Warriors to win a top seed in the West and advance far in the playoffs again this season.
Key additions: none
Key subtractions: none
Houston started the offseason with a bang by slamming the biggest fist in the world on the reset button, dealing James Harden, the second-highest scorer in the league for the past two seasons (I think?) for picks 6 and 8, Nikola Mirotic, Pat McCaw and Lavoy Allen. Kind of an underwhelming return, no? And on the first day of the offseason? Yes, it would have been underwhelming if the dealing had ended there. But we know Pedro better than that. The #6 pick turned into the #9 pick, the #34 pick and a future first from a team that will be in the lottery next year. The #8 pick turned into the #10 pick and ANOTHER future first from ANOTHER team that will be in the lottery next year. And then the #9 pick turned into the #18 pick and YET ANOTHER future first. Now THAT is how you trade down, folks. A masterclass draft day performance, to be sure. Sure, the roster looks a bit depressing now, but don’t be too surprised if Houston is rolling out Michael Porter, Marvin Bagley AND Luka Doncic this time next year. But for now, this roster is bad. Outside of Wes Mathews, Marvin Williams, Mirotic, Tristan Thompson and the brilliant Donovan Mitchell (a major steal at pick 10), this roster looks more like the second page of the waiver wire than it does an NBA team. The Rockets will be bottom feeders this season, but it might not take them long at all to turn it back around.
Key additions: Donovan Mitchell, Tony Parker, Tristan Thompson, Nikola Mirotic, P I C K S
Key subtractions: James Harden, Evan Fournier
The Pacers are favorites to repeat and win another title this season, but I won’t say that they are the prohibitive favorites. They have the best top eight of any team in the league, and it’s not close. But there are enough dings against this team that I’m not ready to crown them just yet. The first is that there’s no way Westbrook is as good as he was last season. Paul George and Melo will have to eat into his scoring and rebounding. He’s another year older and smarter, and with an MVP trophy on his mantle, the chip on his shoulder that has defined his career so far has filled in a bit. Paul George moves from Indy to OKC, and in so doing becomes the #2 or maybe even #3 option on offense. Dennis Schroeder has become the Atlanta Hawks’ only NBA basketball player, but he’s already gotten himself into trouble. He may miss time, he may not, but the distraction could impact his on-court performance. And right after signing a fat max contract! Blake Griffin will finally have a chance to step out of CP3’s shadow. He’s excelled without CP3 before and he could very well do it again. Remember a few years ago when he finished third in MVP voting? That player is still in there, somewhere. But the injury concerns and questions about his declining athleticism are worrying. But the bottom line is that all the players I’ve just named are elite, and that’s basically the end of the story: This is a damn good team. The best in the league. And whoever wants to win the title will likely have to go through them.
Key additions: CJ McCollum
Key subtractions: Gary Harris
LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
The Clippers remain fully in wait-and-see mode with an armada of “maybe, but probaby not” players like Jerian Grant, Rashad Vaughn, Isaiah Whitehad, Deyonta Davis, Wade Baldwin, etc. We simply don’t know if any of those guys will be useful yet. So the only real analysis to do here is to take a look at their draft picks from this summer. LA had five late-first, early-second round picks, and in order for the dumpings of Blake and CP3 to yield any value whatsoever, the Clips need for one or more of these picks to be a home run. And to be completely honest, while none of these picks strike me as really swinging for the fences, I cannot argue with any of them. LA did a really terrific job of selecting players that are likely to strick around in the league for a while as role players. Josh Hart. Sindarius Thornwell. Jordan Bell. Those are guys you know are going to have 15+-year careers. Semi Ojeleye is a 3-and-D guy who isn’t actually good at 3 or D, but I still think he was a tremendous value pick in the second round. And Jawun Evans was one of the big steals here. Give that guy an extra few inches and he instantly becomes a lottery talent. Terrific passer, good scorer and can really lead a team. A true “floor general” type. Reminds of a mini Chris Paul, which would be an extremely fitting turnout for this team – if that is how it turns out. Nik Stauskas was an interesting signing. Maybe it will have impact, maybe it won’t. For a team with nothing to fight for for a couple more years, it was at least worth a shot. And Dario Saric looked tremendous down the stretch, but that was when he was basically the only power forward on the roster. With Ben Simmons ready to go and the 76ers inexplicably signing big man after big man, his minutes might be going down drastically. The Clippers are starting to get back on the right track. And at least they’ve got their own pick this year.
Key additions: Nik Stauskas
Key subtractions: none
LOS ANGELES LAKERS
Sometimes the stars just align. Such was the case for these Lakers, who ended up with franchise star-in-the-making Lonzo Ball. Look, we know about all the hype; and his crazy dad; and how his brothers are way worse at basketball than him, and how that’s going to be a storyline for the next 5-7 years; and his weird jumpshot; and his dumb thing with the sneakers; and all the Summer League hype, how bad he was in the first game, how good he was in all the others, the triple doubles, the chemistry with the other dudes, the throwing the ball all over the court, how he was the Summer League MVP; how he’s the next great Laker, and move over Kobe Bryant, here comes LeBron James next summer and Westbrook and Paul George too; and all of that nonsense. Is Lonzo a good basketball player? Yes. Is he a good fantasy player? Well, maybe. Assists and rebounds will be there. Steals and blocks, too. But will he score enough to warrant being taken first overall? We’ll see. Either way, I don’t think he’ll be a bust at all. I like prospects with one skill that they’re already really, really good at. De’Aaron Fox has his elite speed. Luke Kennard has his jumper. Dennis Smith Jr. can jump out the gym. And Lonzo? Lonzo enters the league and immediately becomes one of the NBA’s five best passers. It’s an elite skill, and it’s something he can definitely build his game around it. His teammates will love him for it, and Luke Walton will know how to use him. Maybe that’s too much about Lonzo Ball, but this is the only exciting player on the roster. I love Isaac as much as the next guy, but again, I don’t know if he’s ever going to be an elite fantasy player. I hope so though because he is fun as hell to watch and it’s about time one of the Magic picks panned out (yes, I am still bitter about Hezonja). Lopez, Green and Belinelli will be serviceable guys and should be easily flipped for picks or prospects. Glenn Robinson is a good candidate for a big jump in production. (Update: never mind.) Apart from that? Not much to talk about. But LA got themselves a good one in Lonzo Ball. The future of the franchise, much like in real life, is on his shoulders.
Key additions: Lonzo Ball, Jonathan Isaac
Key subtractions: none
The fate of the Memphis Grizzlies, in real life and in this league, rests on the shoulders of its two stars: Mike Conley and Marc Gasol. Injuries to those two was enough to knock Memphis out of the playoffs last year, but this is a team that can bounce back with some more tinkering. Gordon, Green and Prince are going to be key, but none are good enough to emerge as major support for the two big guys on the top of this roster. This team has loaded up on picks and prospects, which gives them room to play and flexibility for however their season goes. With the window closing for Conley and Gasol, though, it might be time to make a decision. Can the youth and picks be used as leverage to build a more competitive team? Or will Memphis decide that Conley and Gasol’s time is up and send them away to build for the future? The Grizzlies are a team that could make the playoffs, or end up with a top 10 pick. It’s a wide range of outcomes and it makes this team interesting and worth paying attention to. We’ll see how it shakes out – but personally, I’m inclined to believe this team is more likely to get better than get worse.
Key additions: none
Key subtractions: none
Miami made some nice moves this summer, bringing in some dependable veteran presence. Johnson and Zeller are guys that will be two of the best bench players in the NBA this season. Pau Gasol, somehow, is still quite good (at least for fantasy purposes). All of them are nice additions to the usual crew that includes Goran Dragic, Jonas Valanciunas and Harrison Barnes. Miami is a lot like their division rival Hornets: Lots of good players here, but none that you think will explode and kill you during a weekly scoring period. There is absolutely nothing to dislike about this squad, but there is a limit to how great they can be until Valanciunas, Barnes and Zeller take that next step forward. There are a lot of nice little players on the bench, too, that can be swapped in in a pinch, like Crawford, Speights and Kuzminskas. Even Joakim Noah might be OK? Feels weird to say, but he wasn’t completely useless in fantasy last season (just in real life). Miami will be a playoff team this season, likely grabbing a middle seed.
Key subtractions: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Marcus Morris, Darren Collison
Milwaukee has a really nice, really young foundation in Rodney Hood, Elfrid Payton and the man many think is a future MVP in Giannis Antetokuonmpo. The Bucks rode a hot streak from Payton into the playoffs last season, but this year things could be a bit different. Ibaka and Young are gone, replaced with younger players in Hood and Mo Harkless. Robert Covington is a player I think is tremendous and very underrated, but he could see a decline in production this year with all the influx of talent and bodies in Philly. Knowing how their seasons usually go, though, I wouldn’t bet against him. Delon Wright and Bebe Nogueira are two guys getting ready to step up for the Raptors, and how well they do will make a big difference for this Milwaukee team. Felicio could be a nice player with the mass exodus out of Chicago. All of this adds up to a decent team. Not a world beater. An OK chance to make the playoffs. The East is weaker and that will make it easier for them to get in. But I get the feeling that this roster could change as the season goes on.
Key additions: Rodney Hood
Key subtractions: Serge Ibaka, Thad Young
The Wolves have been on the decline for a couple of years now, but with a good draft, they could bounce back quickly. Jackson and Collins are both capable of putting up big numbers right away. But of course the biggest key for Minnesota is Kevin Love, who will probably see a big increase in production this season with Kyrie gone and IT on the shelf. Sprinkle in some role players like Kelly Oubre and Norman Powell and you’ve got the start of something interesting. The rest of the roster, though, is made up mostly of players that could be found on the waiver wire. That’s not to say that they’re all bad – I actually like most of them. But we just haven’t seen the production out of any of them that makes me confident that the Wolves will be a great team this year. Minnesota will be on the outside looking in this season, but they’re lurking.
Key additions: Josh Jackson, John Collins
Key subtractions: none
NEW ORLEANS PELICANS
Surprisingly, I don’t really have a lot of new things to say about this team. Obviously, it’s brimming with talent. AD. Kyrie. IT. Embiid. Bledsoe. Simmons. If it all comes together, this team’s potential is through the roof, and if all goes right, this is the best team in the league. The problem with the Pelicans, though, is injuries. Last year, we finally got to see what this team looked like at almost full health. Simmons missed the entire year and Bledsoe crapped out at the end, but AD and Kyrie stayed healthy all year and Thomas came in late and continued to kill. We finally got some sprinklings of Embiid, and he looked like a superstar. I look up and down this roster, and for almost every single guy, I say to myself, “Ooh, this guy’s good!” followed immediately by “…if he can stay healthy.” Kyrie famously missed pretty much his entire college year and has never played more than 72 games in a season (last year). Davis had never reached 70 games until last year. Dirk is a nice addition, but he’s ancient and only played 54 games last year. I don’t think Embiid will ever play more than 60 games in a full season, even if he’s fully healthy the entire time, because of the way the Sixers have managed him. We’ve yet to see Simmons play an NBA game, and IT and Batum are ALREADY out for significant portions of the season. Look, I don’t mean to crap on this team. It’s good. REALLY good. They won 67 games last season and were the second-highest scoring team in the league, only about 50 points behind the Hawks. There are five guys on this squad that have a chance to finish among the top 50 players. But this team is going to need to get a lucky break here or there to repeat that kind of success.
Key additions: Dirk Nowitzki, Nic Batum, Ben Simmons
Key subtractions: Jrue Holiday, LaMarcus Aldridge
NEW YORK KNICKS
When building a team, LeBron James and Kristaps Porzingis are two very good places to start. But when your third-best player is Solomon Hill, and he’s out for half the season, does it really matter? (OK, maybe Malik Monk will be the third-best player, but still.) The rest of this roster is barren. The remainder of the Knicks fit into three categories: interesting, high-potential youngsters (Maker, Bogdanovic), a collection of misfits (Chalmers, Beasley) and very young outcasts with an outside shot of becoming useful NBA players (McDermott, Ennis, Ellenson, Jackson, Harrison and so on). I can understand swapping a high lottery pick for a superstar, but when that superstar is turning 33 this year and his running mate is a full decade younger, one has to wonder what purpose it serves having him on board. And then one thinks about it for a few seconds and realizes it serves two purposes. The Knicks are going to win some games this year solely by virtue of Mr. James, which will 1. Be very annoying to a lot of other teams (good) and 2. Cost New York dearly in what might be the final year of the lottery standings as we know them and cause them to miss out on a franchise-altering player to pair with Porzingis for the long haul, much in the way that that opportunity was passed over by acquiring LeBron in the first place (less good). The Knicks had a ton of picks and went ham in free agency, and right now they’ll have to cut at least four players before Oct. 17. This is a weird team, folks. I’m really not sure if they’re better than any other team in the Atlantic, even with LeBron. The depth is just nonexistent. The Knicks are sort of chasing two ends of the same stick: Win now with LeBron, and stock up on rookies and young guys, hoping a few pan out. This team is hard to predict, but I don’t think they’ll be very good this season. But at the same time, it’s hard to hate too much on a team with a top two that can square off against anyone else’s top two in the league. We’ll see.
Key additions: LeBron James, Malik Monk
Key subtractions: none
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
This team keeps trading away its picks. At least this time they got LaMarcus Aldridge…but he’s 32 and quickly becoming a shell of himself. But, you know, with the way some other teams are already throwing their seasons into the incinerator, the Thunder might actually not be the worst team in the league this season for the first time since year one. There are some bona fide, promising NBA players and prospects here. Tyler Ulis was a magician when he finally got some playing time, and we all know Bledsoe is either on his way out soon or likely to get injured. Alan Williams is something and was a ton of fun to watch late last year. (Update: never mind.) Teodosic will be fun, but he’s 30 and that contract is hideous. Dedmon will probably start for the Hawks, at least for a bit. Bayless might play? Eh. Maybe I was getting a bit ahead of myself. But still, there is some progress to be noticed here. It’s not total doom and gloom anymore.
Key additions: LaMarcus Aldridge, Milos Teodosic
Key subtractions: none
This team is looking a lot better than a year ago, when they played themselves into a top 5 pick. The additions of Millsap, Jackson and Ariza are much welcomed and should vault the Magic into the playoffs conversation, especially because there is a huge vacuum for wins that’s opened up with the Hawks coming apart. Millsap is exactly the type of guy who seems like he’ll have his best season at age 32, and it helps that he’s playing in what’s likely to be the league’s #2 offense. There is a good amount of nice players here, but Orlando is another team that is missing a star and won’t be able to get to the next level without one. The big X factor here is Tyreke Evans, who is probably on his last chance to actually become a good NBA player. If it works, Orlando could make the postseason. If not? Then I don’t think this team does very well. It’s a risk, but one worth hanging your hat on if you’re the Magic. With the Cavs and Hawks bowing out, there are only five sure-thing playoff teams in the East. The Magic could be one of the ones competing for a spot.
Key additions: Paul Millsap, Trevor Ariza, Reggie Jackson
Key subtractions: Derrick Favors
To me, this team is a lot like the Knicks. One aging star and a bunch of questions. Melo, now in OKC, will be the third scoring option as opposed to the leading man. The Melo trade was as difficult to understand as the LeBron one. It cost them two first-round picks, one of which turned into Donovan Mitchell, and the only thing it will do for the 76ers is put them further away from a top pick in 2018. In fairness, the rest of the roster shakes out a little better than New York’s. This team will not be taking the division crown from Toronto, but it could sneak into second place by default. This is a roster that is unlikely to make the playoffs, but there are some useful players here. Malcolm Brogdon is certainly one of them, but at nearly 25, he’s probably already close to his ceiling. Crabbe, Kaminsky, Simmons and Boban are nice guys to have as depth, but obviously none are world beaters. Maybe Marquese Chriss makes big strides this year, but he is still extremely raw. He’s a nice lottery ticket. Jarrett Allen has nice potential and will get a lot of minutes off the bat. Cheick Diallo is a guy I really like; his offense looked much improved in Summer League and he should be the first big off the bench for the Pelicans. Beyond that, things get ugly. Mudiay, Hezonja, and Young are all certified busts. I doubt Malachi Richardson, Bruno Caboclo or any one of Philly’s second-round picks pan out. It’s a confusing team. I’m not sure which direction it’s heading it. The 76ers could finish anywhere from second to fifth in the division and I wouldn’t be surprised.
Key additions: Carmelo Anthony
Key subtractions: none
Not much to say about Phoenix as they enter their first full rebuilding season. LaVine, Parker and Noel give them a terrific starting foundation, assuming the first two can bounce back to full strength off of ACL tears and Noel can be smart enough to keep himself on the court. Jamal Murray might be the most exciting prospect of all. The dude can flat out score the rock and Denver views him as untouchable, which is an encouraging sign. Kris Dunn…well, who knows. He was horrible last year as a 23-year-old rookie. But let’s see what the Bulls do with him. I think he can at least be good on defense. Kay Felder and Brandon Paul are worth taking shots on. One of the best things going for this team is that they still have a lot of useful veterans, which gives them flexibility. If things go better than expected with the injury rehabs and development of the young guys, those vets help them get back to being good a lot sooner. And if things don’t go according to plan, there are eight useful depth players that can be flipped for picks. As far as rebuilds go, the Suns have the tools and assets to make it a good one.
Key additions: none
Key subtractions: none
PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS
The West remains brutally difficult at the top, and Portland is a team that can hang with any competitor. Much improved last season, the Blazers made it all the way to the Conference Finals and will look to get back there next spring. Every acquisition Portland has made over the last two seasons – Jordan, Crowder, Beverley, Hardaway Jr. and now Ibaka and Young – has been a great one. Ibaka should be back to his old self as a comfortable third option in Toronto with two ball-dominant players like he was in OKC. Jimmy Butler finally has some good teammates. I’m not sure Jordan remains as effective without CP3, but between Griffin and Teodosic there’ll be enough lobs to keep him going. Crowder and Beverley are perfect fits on their new teams, and Hardaway Jr. should see a big boost being the primary backcourt scorer in New York. Thad Young is still somehow just 29 and always finds a way to be effective. Like a lot of the upper-echelon teams, depth might be a problem. The bench is empty beyond Afflalo and McConnell. But this team is still one of the best in the West.
Key additions: Serge Ibaka, Thad Young
Key subtractions: Rodney Hood
I’m excited to see what this team can do with a full season with Chris Paul. That Boogie-CP3 duo is the best one-two punch in this league, outside of maybe Harden and Jokic. But beyond those two? It’s actually more shaky that you might think. If everything goes right, this is a certain top-three team in the West. If not? Things could get a bit sour. Bradley Beal is a fine third player, but there are always going to be injury concerns. Dwyane Wade? The Cavs roster is looking for Frankenstein than Super Team each day, and Wade is perhaps the worst fit out of anyone on the team. But he’s still D Wade, I guess. Rudy Gay in San Antonio is really interesting. He totally does not fit there, but maybe Pop can turn his game around. Still, much of Gay’s value comes from his scoring, which figures to take a massive hit with the Spurs. Will Barton and Dellavedova are both solid, but again, their roles are shrinking. This team is quite good. That duo is going to win them a lot of games. But there some moves to be made here to make this team a title contender.
Key additions: none
Key subtractions: none
SAN ANTONIO SPURS
Same as it ever was. This team has Towns, Kawhi and Drummond. Game over for most opponents. The depth behind those three stars got a lot better last year, and some key additions/developments have them looking good again. Kilpatrick’s contract is a bit pricey, but he’s an electric scorer and is playing on a team that is trying super hard not to tank. Even with Crabbe, LeVert, Russell and Lin ahead of him, Kilpatrick is going to find ways to be effective. Wilson Chandler is about as steady as they come, when healthy, and he’s finally on a good team again that will get him plenty of looks on a top offense. Gorgui Dieng is secretly perhaps the biggest key to success for Minnesota – his defense is so important to that team. If he can hold Taj Gibson off for enough time, he’s going to be good. Booker’s role is diminishing, but he’s still an important energy/rebounds guy off the bench. Evan Turner will always find a way to get stats. Lin looked awesome when he played last year, but now he’s missing his favorite pick-and-roll/pop buddy with Lopez gone. I still think he’ll have a good year and could lead the Nets in scoring. There are even some intriguing young guys here. Dejounte Murray, with Parker out, could see himself as the starting point guard for the Spurs. Dakari Johnson, well-seasoned from his years in the D-League, could be the backup center in OKC with Kanter gone. This team is very good and will likely be fighting tooth and nail with New Orleans in the Southwest again, with Dallas sure to be close, as well.
Key additions: none
Key subtractions: none
It was a pretty quiet offseason for the Raptors, which is fine because they’re one of the few teams in the league that can pretty much set an alarm for the spring and sleep through the regular season because they’re a lock to make the playoffs in this division. Lowry and DeRozan continue to be the key for this team. Dion Waiters has finally found a home. Gortat still has a year or two left of automatic double-doubles. Teague had his best year every last season, but he’s now effectively the fourth option on his new team and I think Jimmy Butler will be touching the basketball a lot more than he will. And rounding out this team is some quality depth, if a bit boring. But for this team, I think that’s great. I have to give this team a shout out for the small offseason moves they made. Buying Kennedy Meeks for cash. Bringing in Mbah a Moute for pocket change. The signings of Dudley, McDaniels and Asik. None of those guys are great players, obviously, but they provide cheap, quality, proven depth. It’s the little things like that that keep a team going. Toronto is still comfortably ahead of the rest of the division and a sure playoff team for the fourth straight year.
Key additions: none
Key subtractions: none
Utah is another one of those good teams that didn’t do much in the offseason that I don’t have much to say about. I like the Holiday-Batum swap for Utah; point guard was a position of weakness and addressing it was a big priority. Batum is in decline and Holiday, while missing out on some assists thanks to pass hog (is that even a thing?) Rondo, but I think he’ll flourish as the Pelicans’ only wing player who can score. This team still needs some depth and could use a couple more forwards, but that top eight is nothing to be messed with. The Jazz are a certain playoff team again this year, but I think Portland has finally pulled ahead of them as the best team in that division. A lot of this team’s success is going to depend on how Hayward adjust from Boston, moving from a Utah role where he was maybe the only good scorer and de facto second point guard to a Celtics one where he’ll be playing with one of the most selfish point guards in the NBA. KCP was a terrific pickup and didn’t cost them much. I do worry about depth here, and about the redundancy of having three Celtics forwards in the starting eight. But overall, this team is still rock solid.
Key additions: Jrue Holiday
Key subtractions: Nic Batum
Despite winning the championship in year one, and despite having John Wall, this team is reeling and in danger of serious regression. One of the few middle-of-the-road teams last season, the Wizards might be left in the dust as other teams around them continue to improve. Don’t get me wrong: Despite that, there is actually a lot to like about this team. Wall is a top-ten player. Skal and Yogi were diamonds in the rough and awesome finds last season. Kennard is the best shooter from this year’s draft, supremely underrated athletically and will be a steal from the middle of the first round. We’ve all heard the Julius “in the best shape of his life” Randle stories, and I’m optimistic about him, too. Sabonis, though still a pretty bad NBA player, will be given plenty of room to play in Indiana. Tyson Chandler is still the only real center in Phoenix (OK, never mind, Len just signed his deal, but still). Kuzma. Oh mama does he look good. Where did this guy come from? Is it just Summer League/preseason hype? Or is he actually a good prospect? We’ll see…but damn he’s looked good. But what the team truly lacks is that “oomph” behind Wall. All of the above guys mentioned here are really nice, but not going to move the needle in the arms-race nature of this league. The difficulty in assessing this team lies in the question, “OK, so there are pieces here, but the team is not a contender. What do you do to improve the situation?” And the answer, I think, might just be to stand pat and wait. And that’s fine. It’s what I’ve been doing for the past two-plus years now. Give the Wizards a bit and they just might win another title. In the meantime, they could even make the playoffs now in the weakened East.
Key additions: Luke Kennard
Key subtractions: none
I think I also usually do playoff predictions each year, so here we go:
(Jeez, the West was tougher than I thought. It feels like 1-7 is a pick ’em.)
The doubles are now behind us, and the relentless plod of the season begins. It feels like we just kicked off, but with 7 games spread across the first four weeks, the midway point of the season is just about upon us. It’s been a surprising and fantastic start for some (Seattle, Jacksonville, Cincinnati), a forgettable disaster for others (Houston, Cleveland, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Chicago), and exactly the walk in the park joyride we expected for still others (Buffalo, Detroit, NY Giants).
So what happened in the last of the doubles? And which teams fates are sealed as we hit football season flyover country? Glad you asked.
Buffalo Bills 221, Atlanta Falcons 157: This season has had some fantastic fantasy football games. Week 4 had none of them. This is literally the best one I could find. We didn’t have a single game this week where both teams broke 200, and only Buff vs. Atlanta and NYG over Tampa had two good teams with one scoring 200. Ouch. In any case, this one was the waxing we worried it might be. Julio Jones, hampered by injury, scored only 7 points, but even had he added another zero to his point total (as he is wont to do), it wouldn’t have mattered. The Bills picked up a cool 120 points on defense, led by Khalil Mack with 26, and Atlanta had only one player over 20 (the quarterback). The Bills are now sitting pretty with a three game lead in the East, while the Falcons are in a tailspin after dropping three straight.
Seattle Seahawks: How about dem Hawks? It’s pretty easy to dominate when you get 37 points from Bilal Powell, like the Seahawks did last week in a dual thumping of the Colts and Rams. Ezekiel Elliott is back on track (30), Russell Wilson is putting up points like he’s supposed to (26), Travis Kelce is the star tight end the Seahawks envisioned (27) and the offense put up a 150 point game. With the win over the Rams and a double loss by the Cardinals, the Seahawks are now 6-1 and have a two game lead in the AFC West, with the tiebreaker. The turnaround is here.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Look who just won’t go away? The Jaguars won the week with a 256 point total, which included, I kid you not, 164 points on defense. Besides slackers Kareem Jackson (4.5) and Jalen Ramsey (9), every person on the Jags defense hit double figures in a week that netted 6 turnovers, 6 sacks, 6 passes defensed, 3 stuffs, and a cool 62 tackles. After a pair of weeks under 200, the Jags are back in a big way, and in first place in the AFC South.
Kansas City Chiefs: Very quietly, the Chiefs are the other undefeated team in Real Deal. 7-0 and in first place in the West, the Chiefs have a top five offense, a top five defense, top 5 in total points, and the #2 QB in all of Real Deal, the Gunslingah himself, Alex Smith. The Chiefs now have a 270 point and a 240 point week to their name. Cue the inevitable thrashing this week at Houston.
Honorable Mention: Cincinnati Bengals, New York Giants
Cleveland Browns: Well, that came apart rather quickly. Back to back weeks with 146 and 139 points yields four straight losses, a 1-5-1 record, and time to think about next work. On the docket, getting Mike Evans some help – Cleveland scored only 48 points on Sunday – 20 came from Evans. Jeremy Maclin, Marvin Jones, and Isaiah Crowell need to pick up the pace, or Cleveland is cruising towards a top 5 pick.
Atlanta Falcons: Speaking of coming apart quickly, the Falcons have got to be spinning around wondering what the hell just happened. Two weeks ago they were 3-0, in first place in the hardest division in football, and looking like absolute worldbeaters. After a 156 point dud where neither offense nor defense got over 75 points, the Falcons have dropped three straight games to fall to 4-3 and into their accustomed spot gazing up at the Panthers. Schedule has something to do with it, as the Falcons have faced both Buffalo and Detroit in those three games. Atlanta will be fine. But it would have been nice to have that dud on a single week.
Arizona Cardinals: This was NOT how Arizona envisioned their season. Not 3-4. Not in third place. Not three games behind a startlingly good Seahawks team, and CERTAINLY not putting a 132 point stinker in a double loss to San Francisco and Washington – they of the combined 0-12 record against everybody else. 47 points on offense, only four players on the team in double digits, and the dubious distinction of being the first team ever in RDFL history to lose to two teams with a 0 in the quarterback spot in the same week. Ouch. Week 4’s game against the Eagles is desperation city.
Honorable Mention: New England Patriots, Denver Broncos, Philadelphia Eagles
Games of the Week:
Arizona Cardinals vs. Philadelphia Eagles: Two teams with playoff aspirations. Two teams with 3-4 records. Two teams with a combined 1-7 record in the past two weeks. Two games with three game deficits in their divisions. And two teams with a desperate chip on their shoulder. It’s go time. The winner of this week’s deathmatch gets back to .500 and respectability. The loser falls, in all probability, 4 games back in their division after 8 games and can essentially kiss the season goodbye.
Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals: Not so much a game as a scheduled whooping, this game nonetheless features a combined record of 12-2 and two distinct playoff hopefuls. That’s where the similarities end. Buffalo has scored more than 500 more points than Cincy, averaging ~75 more points per GAME. Buffalo has a top 3 offense and a top 3 defense. The Bengals are 15th and 16th respectively. TY Hilton is still without luck. I don’t know. I’m not going to try. It’s a game of the week in name, but I’m not sure I’d watch this one.
Detroit Lions vs. Carolina Panthers: This one? This one I’d watch. The 7-0 Super Bowl Champion Detroit Lions face the 6-1 Super Bowl Champion Carolina Panthers. This one has history, rivalry, and outstanding play. The stats say that the mighty Lions are the clear favorite. But Detroit is streaky. When they are good, they are 290 points invincible. Last week? Carolina would have won. And Carolina, the little team that could, always seems to find a way to win – even if it takes a stat correction of 7 hurries from a Monday game to do it. Detroit should win. But Carolina is spooky.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: An unexpected battle of division leaders, both teams are hotter than a bizarre combination of Zoolander and DeShaun Watson right now. The Steelers have gone 5-1 the last three weeks to reclaim the AFC North. Even better, Ben Roethlisberger and Le’Veon Bell are getting back to their old selves. The Jaguars are using a ridiculous defense to go on the rampage. A win for Pittsburgh and the AFC looks the same as it ever was, with the Steelers way out in front of the North and the South a clumsy muddle. A win for Pittsburgh, and suddenly Jacksonville is legitimately scary.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams: Seattle vs. Arizona goes the common wisdom. The Cardinals will right the ship and it will go down to the last week in the season. The Los Angeles Rams, however, are in second place, and sit between the two NFC West bird squadrons. The Seahawks have been much better (1474 fantasy points to 1216) and have the much better offense (2nd in the league vs. 19th). And if Marcus Mariota doesn’t play… well, let’s just say there’s a reason we all subscribe to common wisdom. But that’s why they play the games. A win for Seattle combined with an Arizona loss and the Seahawks have officially ran away and hid. But a Rams win? We’re one game apart with an LA tiebreaker. I don’t think it happens. But stranger things certainly have.
The defending champion Detroit Lions went up against two undefeated teams in Atlanta and Cincinnati – and obliterated them both. Detroit scored 290 points behind 41 points from Todd Gurley (Detroit draft pick), 38 points from Brandin Cooks (Detroit draft pick), 22 points from Tyreek Hill (Detroit draft pick), 26 points from Darius Slay (original franchise), 25 from Glover Quin (original franchise), and 19 points from Adoree Jackson (Detroit draft pick). The Lions would have gone over 300 points had Jackson’s TD return not been called back. Oh. And they beat their undefeated opponents by a cool 183 points.
Not to be outdone, the Buffalo Bills dropped a 298.25 outing on New England and Denver, missing the 300 point mark by a single Anthony Brown tackle. The Bills did it by a well rounded effort – literally 10/20 players scored between 17 and 32 points. Led by, you guessed it, AJ Mother #($&)#(*$ Green (Trade), and supported by Doug Baldwin (Trade), Devonta Freeman (Trade), Rob Gronkowski (Trade), and Tyrod Taylor (Trade). I suspect some of the defensive guys were also trades, but I haven’t done the legwork.
The moral of the story is crystal clear, and twofold.
Detroit and Buffalo are insanely good and the clear favorites to meet in the Super Bowl
DON’T trade Detroit draft picks, and DON’T trade Buffalo players. If you do, you’re a bad person and contributing to the decline of society.
This has been your public service announcement from the competition committee 🙂
Games of the Week:
Atlanta Falcons 239, New Orleans Saints 220: Playoff teams, high scoring, tight games. The Falcons may have lost an impossible game to Detroit, but they did play exceptionally well and needed it to hold off a game New Orleans team and retain control of the NFC South at 4-1. The Falcons got an enormous 38 point burst from Chris Thompson, of all people, and a 19 point game from their kicker to overcome rough games from Jay Ajayi and Kelvin Benjamin. The Saints kept it close via a pair of interceptions from newly acquired Terrance Mitchell, but were undone by a brutal injury to Darren Sproles, a couple of near misses on deep bombs from JJ Nelson, and a strong performance on Monday night from Carson Palmer.
Seattle Seahawks 229, Tennessee Titans 220: This one is simple. A combined 80 points from Russell Wilson and Sterling Shepherd give the Seahawks the victory by the narrowest of margins over AFC contender Tennessee. The Titans got a strong (114 point) defensive game, and had to be feeling gratified as Odell Beckham finally broke out (29 points) and recently acquired Case Keenum justified his acquisition costs with 34 points. The end was brutal, however, as a Giants receiver not named Odell Beckham took a 77 yard score to the house to provide the difference. That’s a rough situation for a Giants fan who also owns the OTHER Giants receiver.
On the Rise:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Every year, we predict the Buccaneers are going to be in the mix. Every year they struggle out of the gate as Carolina, Atlanta, and New Orleans distance themselves… Wait… what’s that you say? Not this year? Not this year. The Bucs just quietly scored 218 points to knock off divisional rival Carolina by 5 and the upstart Vikings by 25. Suddenly Tampa Bay is tied with Atlanta at 4-1 and feeling serious confidence in a disruptive Defense that just dropped 155 points in a well balanced effort where no single player scored less than 8 points and Jadeveon Clowney (finally!) went off for 31. The offense is in rough shape. But if that defense can keep on playing…
Pittsburgh Steelers: What a difference a week makes in Steel City. The Steelers finally found their mojo in week 3, and just in time to go 2-0, knock off the scuffling Houston Texans, and move back into their accustomed position in first place. Same as it ever was. How did it happen? Well, Le’Veon Bell finally showed up, Kenny Britt finally caught a pass, and DeForest Buckner finally made a play. The scary part is that Pittsburgh still only got mediocre games from guys like Ben Roethlisberger and Jarvis Landry. This thing might be on a steady climb.
New York Jets: My my my. One week after being competitive and coming away with nothing to show for it, the Jets got back on the horse and delivered the first multi-win week in FRANCHISE HISTORY. They are now 3-2 and are solidly ensconced in 2nd place in the East. Yes, their opponents in week 3 have a combined 2-8 record. Yes, it was literally ALL from Stefon Diggs (46 points) and DeMario Davis (26). And yes they only scored 172 points. But 2-0! J-E-T-S!
Indianapolis Colts: Gotta go one extra here and give a shout out to Indy, who pulled out a 2-0 week with strong wins over both Cleveland and Baltimore. After a brutal week one offensive performance, the Colts have moved up to a respectable mid-60s offense in both weeks 2 and 3, and investments in guys like Alvin Kamara and Bruce Ellington appear to be paying dividends. It’s probably too much to ask for Indy to climb back into the mix, but a 2-0 week restores the Colts to the ranks of the respectable.
Honorable Mentions: Kansas City Chiefs, New York Giants, Oakland Raiders, Seattle Seahawks
Carolina Panthers: What just happened? The 2-1 Panthers were engaged in a pair of close games with divisional rivals Tampa Bay and New Orleans as the Falcons were getting smashed by Detroit. This is Carolina. The result was an inevitable pair of victories which leave them at 4-1, tied for first, and bringing their intimidating moxie to bear against upstart Atlanta. But something happened. Instead of a huge push from DeMarcus Lawrence putting them over the top, it fell just short on Monday night, and the Panthers lost both divisional games by 5 and 7 points respectively. Cam is struggling, the offensive depth isn’t quite there, and the Panthers are suddenly 2-3 and last place. What is going on?
Houston Texans: Speaking of “what is going on”, the Texans have to feel totally shell-shocked. A trendy Super Bowl pick at the beginning of the year, the Texans have scuffled to a 1-4 start, obviously suffering from a Super Bowl hangover. It’s not disaster from any one player, it’s lethargy across the whole roster. The highest individual performance was 15.5 points in week 3, and no offensive player even reached 15. Trevor Siemian is hit or miss, Lamar Miller is mostly getting hit, and the big games of old just aren’t coming. There’s still plenty of time, but with Jacksonville and Tennessee in the last double, Houston needs to get right soon.
The rest of the AFC North: We’ve already talked about Pittsburgh. While the Steelers were rocketing back up the standings, the rest of the league was… struggling. Cleveland, Baltimore, and Cincinnati went a combined 0-6. Cincy fell from the ranks of the unbeaten, scoring only 167 points in twin losses to Detroit and Green Bay. Cleveland also dropped a pair, scoring only 146 in rough losses to Indy (now with an offense!) and Chicago. And not to be outdone, the to point strong Ravens laid a 119 point egg and got crushed by the Colts. Mercy. Three teams who had playoff aspirations from the best division in football just combined to average 144 points a piece. Blech. We’ll see if this fixes itself or not.
Dishonorable Mentions: Philadelphia Eagles, Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers (attaway, commish squad!)
Week 4 Games of the Week: One more double!
Atlanta Falcons vs. Buffalo Bills: Atlanta scored 240 points and got a loss against the undefeated juggernauts of the NFC, the Detroit Lions, and a strong win against Divisional rival Atlanta. Their reward? A game against the undefeated juggernauts of the AFC, the Buffalo Bills, and a tough game against divisional rival Tampa Bay. No rest for the weary. The Falcons do need Julio Jones to go off to a 70 point tune to have a chance in this one. Buffalo has looked like a different team since week 1, following up a clunky 179 point opener with 264 and 298. Scary.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The upstarts of the AFC South, both sitting pretty at 4-1. That’s sort of where the comparison ends, though, as Atlanta has outscored Tampa Bay by 250 points thus far (50 points per game), and has the #2 point total in the league. Unless Tampa finds its offense real fast (currently 31st in RDFL), Atlanta is going to be alone in first place, even with a potential loss to Buffalo.
New York Giants vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Here’s why. The Bucs don’t just get the Falcons, they also get the Giants, who are quietly turning in their own superb season, going 4-1 and turning in a cool #3 in fantasy points scored. And now they have a Rivers. This could get bad.
Denver Broncos vs. Oakland Raiders: Don’t look now, but Denver is 3-2, just went over 200 points, and now has a Manning who now has a healthy Odell Beckham Jr. Initial predictions had Oakland in the driver’s seat in the AFC West, but the Raiders are a Dez Bryant struggle inch on Monday night away from a loss to Washington and a 1-4 record, while the Broncos are at 3-2 and suddenly look pretty competitive. We shall see.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams: I had to do a double check, but you know who else besides the Jets is 3-2 that is never 3-2? The LA Rams. They haven’t played all that well, and lack everything but a quarterback, but they have shots at Seattle and Dallas this week, and a good week could have them at 5-2. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are sitting at 4-1 with games against Indy and the Rams. They’d better win both, though, because the Arizona Cardinals are lurking with games against Washington and San Francisco – the league’s only two winless teams.
Good luck this week, everyone! Enjoy the last double until week 12!
Games of the Week: I genuinely can’t choose between these.
Detroit Lions 214, New York Giants 208: Speaking of Monday night showdowns, this one came down to the wire because the Monday night game WAS the franchise game. And for a possible NFC Championship game preview, this one didn’t disappoint. Todd Gurley and Tyler Lockett went off for the Lions, cancelling out rough games from the Lions stars, and Chris Jones went nuts with two forced fumbles, a pick, and three sacks. The Lions showed much better balance (12/20 in double digits) but lacked any standout performances (no player with 20 or more points). You can point to DeMarco Murray’s early exit as the difference in this one. But to me, this one was Darius Slay, who was everywhere on Monday night (20 points). A couple less tackles and passes defensed also means a few more points for Eli… and we’re looking at a different outcome.
Cleveland Browns 212, Baltimore Ravens 210: The Ravens are the best 1-2 team I’ve ever seen. After shelling the Bengals in week one only to lose the game to forfeit due to some random guy I’ve never heard of on the practice squad (check your squads, people!), the Ravens scored over 210 again only to lose by two points to another division rival. Instead of 3-0 in the division, the Ravens are 1-2 by 2 points and a PS blip. Oof. As before, a solid 108 point defensive performance keyed Baltimore, while the equally tough Browns were galvanized by a 34 point, 3 touchdown extravaganza from 2015’s overpriced stud of the year, Michael Crabtree. Remember back when we thought a double digit salary was outrageous for a FA pickup? O the halcyon days of innocence. Ironically, this one too came down to Monday night. The Ravens, trailing after Sunday, picked up a predictably strong 13.5 point game from Olivier Vernon. But TE Jerrell Adams has ONE single catch all year long. It was on Monday night. It went for 38 yards. It was worth 4.5 points. And Cleveland knocks off it’s rival.
Green Bay Packers 215, Cleveland Browns 212: The “Dear lord you threaded that needle so perfectly you should be a kicker!” award goes to Cleveland this week, who managed to win by 2 and lose by 3 in the same exact week. The runner up goes to the Raiders, who managed to win by 7 and lose by 3. In this one, Carlos Hyde, Davante Adams and Jason Witten all went over 20 to cue a surprisingly good offensive attack. The Pack, at 2-1, are a game back of Detroit and looking really strong to start off the season.
Atlanta Falcons: This could be the year the Falcons break through in the brutal NFC South. A 3-0 start and the highest week #2 point total has the Falcons strongly atop the division after a nice 207-204 win over New Orleans. The Falcs are getting strong contributions up and down their offense. Julio and Jay Ajayi are getting theirs, but guys like Chris Thompson (28 points) and Mohammed Sanu (14 points) are moving this team from strong to dangerous.
Cincinnati Bengals: The 3-0 squads in our league fall into three categories. Detroit and Buffalo (ho hum. Wake me when something surprising happens). Kansas City and Atlanta (good teams, but a little surprising – expect a loss soon). And Cincinnati. WTF? After a forfeit win in week #1, the Bengals followed up their good fortune with a 2-0 week, knocking off Chicago and Houston to move into first place in the AFC North by a full game and a half. That’s surprising. Cincy’s office has been mediocre at best (42 and 63 points in the first two weeks) but their defense has been stellar (110 and 114 points) despite only two total turnovers all year. They need some playmakers on offense to score points badly, but if Andy Dalton can ever get going and Andrew Luck can ever come back to save TY Hilton, this team could be a legitimate contender.
New York Jets: It feels a little odd to call out a 1-2 team as rising, but it’s worth noting that the New York football Jets have been downright competitive in the first two weeks. Their two losses have been to Buffalo by 14 and to the Oakland Raiders by 7. They also smoked the Broncos and are 7th in the AFC in points scored. Carson Wentz, Melvin Gordon, and Stefon Diggs, the young offensive triumvirate, look good, and the defense has been strong as expected. Signs of LIFE for the perennially beaten down green machine.
Honorable Mentions: Buffalo Bills, Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs, Tennessee Titans, Los Angeles Chargers, Seattle Seahawks
Houston Texans: Real Deal Report curse? The Texans have losses to Jacksonville and Cincinnati and have only beaten the lowly 49ers to kick off the year, and have had only 3 two point games so far this year. Problems? Not really. 1-2 is not how the Texans wanted to start, and Jacksonville and Cincy were certainly not games they had fingered on their calendar as losses. But it’s not even close to the end of the world. They’ve scored a lot of points (209 and 187) – it’s just that their opponents have played out of their minds. Jacksonville followed up their 233 point week 1 effort with a 57 point drop in week 2, and Cincy’s week 2 score was 35 points higher than their week 1 score. That’s bad luck, not bad play. Rough week, not great, but Houston will be fine.
Carolina Panthers: What is going on? I feel like Admiral Akbar. This has to be a trap. The second I put this down, Carolina is going to run off 13 straight wins and make me feel like a complete fool. And 2-1 with a loss to Buffalo is not what one usually thinks of as falling. But Carolina has looked… mediocre. 168 points in week #2 following up an under 200 in week #1 as well. And if their loss was to Buffalo, their wins have been over SF and Minnesota – who have combined to go 0-6. With the Falcons playing out of their minds and both New Orleans and Tampa Bay looking strong, that’s not going to be good enough for Panthera. The problem has been on offense. Zach Ertz has been dynamite. Cam Newton and Mark Ingram have been disappointingly mediocre. And the rest of the offense has been an epic disaster. Take this Sunday, for instance. Ertz had 17. Newtown had 11. Ingram had 12. And Campanaro, Woods, Blount, and Olsen combined for 6.75 points. With Olsen out for a while, we’ll have to see where this goes.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Back to earth with a thud. After that 233 point clubbing of Houston in week #1, the Jags returned to earth on Sunday, dropping games to both the Seahawks and Titans. There’s no shame in a 176 point double loss to two playoff contenders, but it will do nothing to dispel perceptions that week 1 was a mirage. The QB situation continues to plague the Jags (hey, that rhymes!). They got a zero from their signal caller position on Sunday. A 20 point QB and Jacksonville is 3-0 and reading a very different column.
Dishonorable Mentions: New England Patriots, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings, Dallas Cowboys, Washington Redskins
Week 3 Games of the Week:
Arizona Cardinals vs. New York Giants: 2-1. Check. Super Bowl Contenders. Check. Chip on their shoulder. Check. Stiff challenges within their own divisions. Check. Arizona and New York enter week 3 in similar places. Good teams, fine outlooks, one tough loss, and no desire to drop another game. The Giants are hoping like crazy that DeMarco Murray can return, and are hoping even more that their acquisition of Philip Rivers pays dividends after watching Eli struggle.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Detroit Lions: Ka-boom! 3-0 meets 3-0 as the Lions continue their early-season gauntlet of death with a trip to Falcon-land. Atlanta, meanwhile, gets both Detroit and New Orleans in a tough week. If the Falcons can go 2-0, they will have initially announced themselves. 1-1 and they are still looking pretty good. 0-2 and they are suddenly looking up again. It’s a hard conference.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Detroit Lions: The other 3-0 vs. 3-0 matchup. I almost missed it, but Cincinnati is 3-0. It seems unlikely they’ll stay that way.
New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles: The NFC East is at stake in this clash. Both teams are cranky after narrow losses in week 2, but both teams have brutal double games this week and the team that can channel that frustration into a vicious bout of scoring vengeance will seize the driver’s seat for a division title.
Tennessee Titans vs. Seattle Seahawks: An intriguing under the radar game between two first place teams, this is one I’m going to be watching very closely. Bradford’s health is in question, and will have a big impact on this game. The reason I’m interested is that both teams have gone 2-1 despite rough starts to the year for key stars. When guys like Russell Wilson, Zeke Elliott, and the entire NYG offense (Perkins, OBJ and Shepherd are all here), these two teams could get even better.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Houston Texans: I had this one marked on the calendar as a possible AFC Title showdown preview. It’s lost a lot of it’s luster, as the two teams stagger in at 2-3-1. But I still believe that both of those teams are really good. The winner of this one gets some mojo back, while the loser is left searching for answers. The Steelers badly need for Big Ben and Le’Veon Bell to get back on track.
Good luck everyone, and play more close games. Be like Oakland (all three games by 7 points or less). And send Oakland heart medication. We like the guy and want him to stick around!
Week one, in the books. It was a rough, weird week. There are only a few teams feeling on the top of the world. Some are troubled but confident. And others are feeling that same impending sense of panic you get when you live in New York City during a disaster movie. For a one bye-week with the relative health the beginning of the season brings, this week posted some brutal scores with very few 200 point performances. A couple of quick quarterback hooks and bad injuries compound things further.
Here at the report, the general take is this: Don’t overreact to week 1. Fortunately, for all that it’s the first week, it means even less this year than in most years because it is only a single week rather than our typical inaugural double. Things will bet back to normal soon.
That said, there are some teams who have a reason to panic. I’m here to break it down for you.
Game of the Week: Detroit Lions 227 over Arizona Cardinals 201
Good game. The eventual NFC West champ vs. the eventual NFC North champ. Aside from the Giants, the two highest scores in the NFC. Same as it ever was. And what was the difference? 35.4 points from Tyreek Hill. Did I mention in the off-season that the Super Bowl Champions got Tyreek Hill? Look, this was a really excellent game. Both teams played really well. You could say that a pair of close misses to Torrey Smith and a zero to Run DMC were the game, but you could also say that 25 points from Jalen Mills kept the Cardinals in it. In the end, this was a hard fought game where both teams came to play and the Lions demonstrated why they are the team to beat in the NFC – too many weapons who can have a big game any given week.
LA Rams: The Rams are going to have trouble scoring. This is absolutely true. But TJ Watt is the real deal, the rest of the defense stepped up as well, and young receivers like Zay Jones are going to improve as the year goes on. LA isn’t going to be a great team this year, but that defense showed me it has staying power, and I like this team to absolute irritate the competitors and maybe even still a game or two as the year goes on.
Smoke and Mirrors:
Jacksonville Jaguars: Hidden behind the week’s biggest update, a thrashing of the Super Bowl contending Houston Texans, is how the Jaguars got there. Kareem Hunt’s 52 points aren’t going to happen everybody. Nor is the defense, however stout, going to intercept two passes (including a Ryan Kerrigan pick six), force two fumbles, and pick off another one. It’s good news that Cooper Kupp and Danny Amendola look like they are going to be targeted heavily, and Marqise Lee may see more targets with Allen Robinson’s injury, but this is still a team without a quarterback and that I expect to return to earth next week.
Kansas City Chiefs: Yes the Chiefs led week #1 in scoring in an obliteration of the Patriots. But look a little deeper and you’ll see that huge chunks of it came from a 33 point outing by Alex Smith, a combined 66 points from its Linebackers, and a Fumble returned for a TD by a defensive lineman. Where did it not come from? Running back, safety, and WR4. The Chiefs can’t expect repeat performances on the plus side, and the things they needed verdicts on all came back negative. A twin challenge at division rival Oakland and NFC contender Philadelphia loom.
Chill, you’ll be Fine
Houston Texans: David Johnson out 2-3 months is rough. Painful. But all told? No team is better equipped to handle a loss to a stud RB than Houston. Jacksonville had a buzzsaw week. Chris Hogan will play better, the defense will generate more big plays (only 1 sack and 1 turnover for a group that accumulated 41 combined tackles), and DJ will be back. If anything, Austin Hooper’s big day has to be an encouraging sign of things to come, even if it all came on only two catches. It’s never good to lose week one, never good to lose a stud back, and never good to drop a divisional game. But the Texans will be fine, and this game won’t matter in the least come week 1 of the playoffs.
Oakland Raiders: Frustrating start for the Raiders, who drop a winnable home game to Tennessee to open a tough schedule. And yes, there are concerns at the back end of the offense, where guys like Jalen Richard and Benjamin Watson did nothing to justify the Raiders faith in them. But Oakland’s week 1 challenges are more like Houston’s – 1 sack and 1 turnover combined among starting defensive players getting a lot of minutes – that’s going to improve by regression to the mean. And guys like Tyler Eifert, Dez Bryant, and Jordan Matthews are going to get theirs. Dropping a game they should have won by a narrow margin hurts, but Oakland will be fine.
Reason to panic
Chicago Bears: That won’t get it done. The offense didn’t look sneaky for the Bears. It looked ordinary, or worse. Four points for Hoyer. 3 for Brandon Marshall. 6 for Gresham. 7 for Forte. Nothing for Wheaton. Only Terrance West lived up to his billing. The scary part is that these don’t seem like natural reversions. Hoyer and the SF offense looked like the disaster we’ve come to expect, Brandon Marshall and Eli aren’t even reading the same book, let alone getting close to the same page, Gresham is what he is, and Forte is old and in a platoon. To their credit, the Bears are addressing their issues, bringing in Emmanuel Sanders to replace the injured Cameron Meredith. But they can’t be happy in Halas Hall about how week 1 played out.
Indianapolis Colts: Ye gods. Indy has had scoring problems for the last three years. Their offense has depended on two players – Andrew Luck and Julian Edelman. And, of course, where do the injuries strike? Edelman is gone for the year. Nobody knows what’s up with Luck. And in their absence. Mercy. The Colts managed a TOTAL of 20 offensive points, with more than half (10.5) coming from Alvin Kamara. To be clear, no less than 51 individual PLAYERS scored more points than the entire Colts offense put together. If we remove Kamara, this number jumps to 280, including 4 punters. Yes, 280 individual players (almost ten per team!), including 4 punters, scored more points than 6 of the colts top 7 offensive players combined. This isn’t getting better until (if!) Luck gets back, and even then, it’s not getting good. This could be the worst offensive team in RDFL history by a wide margin.
Pittsburgh Steelers: So this will get better. Roethlisberger will score more than 16 points. Le’Veon Bell will return to his stud form. And if we’re talking about starting defensive squads missing out on the big play by luck, the Steelers D put together 34 tackles without a single turnover or sack. It will get a bit better. But enough better? The defensive question marks weren’t answered, the secondary looks mediocre, Fournette’s performance relegated even a healthy Yeldon to handcuff status, and with the exception of lone bright spot Jesse James, the supporting offensive cast doesn’t look like it will have much opportunity. Things will get a lot better for the Steelers than they were in week 1, but winning the AFC North suddenly no longer seems like a sure thing.
New England Patriots: On the one hand, the news on offense was really good. Charles Clay asserted himself well and Nelson Agholor had a breakout day. James White is going to be involved on the Patriots offense, and Mike Gillislee is on pace for a bajillion touchdowns. Despite down days for the geriatric duo of Brady and Gore, this team looks like it could put up a lot of points. On the flip side, the defense has proved itself sustainably terrible, with only three double digit performances, a pair of zeros, and Eric Berry lost for the year. The Pats are legit. But that defense will keep them from being a true threat to the Bills.
Big Games in Week #2:
Buffalo Bills vs. Carolina Panthers: Possible Super Bowl Preview? In week #2? Yes please. Both the Bills and the Panthers took care of week #1 business as expected, but less overwhelmingly than either felt comfortable with, especially Buffalo. Now they meet each other in a game that is both showdown and get-right game. The winner feels great. The loser suddenly has some questions.
Detroit Lions vs. New York Giants: I love double weeks! Week #2 has a couple of doozies. This is a potential NFC Championship game showdown – and much more of a clash, as both Detroit and New York put up strong week #1 performances. The loser here doesn’t have question marks. But the winner has the inside track to top seed in the NFC playoffs.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns: Of course there’s a big game in the AFC North. There’s ALWAYS a big game in the AFC North because all the teams are in convention. And here we go. Baltimore looked more impressive in week 1 (pre-forfeit), but Cleveland had the bigger win, knocking off Pittsburgh. Whichever team takes this game will grab early control of the North race, pending Cincinnati’s results. A bit like saying “will have sprinted to the lead at the half mile mark of the marathon”, but hey. It’s a lead.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Oakland Raiders: Divisional showdown #1 between KC and Oakland comes in week 2, with the winner likely taking control of the AFC West race. KC looked like the better team in week one, but a reversal in week 2 could have the Raiders up by a game with a tiebreaker in hand.
We round out our 2017 predictions with the North divisions, both of which were pretty exemplary in 2016. The AFC North provided our best all around race, with all four teams above 500 and in contention throughout most of the season, while the NFC Norris provided our Super Bowl Champion in the Detroit Lions. Here we go again!
Detroit Lions (11-5): My literal initial exclamation when opening Detroit’s roster for an initial review. “Oh yeah. The ()$&#$() Super Bowl champions got $#(&)#$ Tyreek Hill. Actually, that’s pretty much the cliff notes version of my NFC North predictions. The Minnesota Vikings are a year away from being scary and the faffing Lions got faffing Tyreek Hill. Credit where credit’s due – he drafted the guy in the middle rounds of the 2016 draft after the entire rest of the league passed on him twice. Shame on the rest of us. But it still sort of seems unfair.
Look, there’s no getting around it. This roster is loaded once again. Stafford at QB. Ameer Abdullah and Todd Gurley due for a bounce back at RB. Brandin Cooks (now with a Brady!), Tyreek Hill, and Tyler Lockett at WR. Martellus Bennet at TE. That’s a starting seven and no mistake. And that’s before we note that Patrick Mahomes and Marlon Mack are just chilling on the practice squad, waiting to not be picked off by anybody because they are first rounders. Bleh.
Perhaps a team that has neglected its defense to focus on offense? Sorry, nope. Every position group on this team is solid, It starts with a young and brutal D-Line of Chris Jones, Stephon “I’ll get around Tuitt”
, “Sorry Malik Jackson, I am for real”, Takkarist climbing Mt. Mckinley, and “Oh yeah, I’m Derek Barnett, the first Eagles 1st round pick to be worth a damn in years”. It moves to a Linebacking group that has Leonard Floyd and Jamie Collins flanking the less impressive but still starting Todd Davis. And it ends with a powerful secondary that goes at least 5 to 6 deep with Ronald Darby, Darius Slay, Glover Quin, LaMarcus Joyner, and Adoree Jackson. Even more bleh.
If there’s one place this team could be vulnerable, it’s offensive depth. It seems like quite a nitpick (and I think it is), but ask poor Buffalo how injuries can shred a star-studded cast at the worst possible time.
UPDATE: He just traded for Eric Decker. So much for that depth thing.
Still. It seems a bit of a foregone conclusion. The ($#)&#$) Super Bowl champs got (#)$*#$ Tyreek Hill. The NFC North is all but guaranteed, and Detroit has to be considered the odds on favorite to return to the Super Bowl for the first time in RDFL history. Triple bleh.
Green Bay Packers (8-8): This division is BRUTAL. it could rival the NFC South this year for sheer top to bottom ridiculousness. The Packers aren’t the favorites, and they don’t have Chicago’s sneak up on you panache, but this team could still make some real noise. Somehow, Green Bay has dodged the full reload and should return with a very solid team.
Kirk Cousins is good. Davante Adams is good. Carlos Hyde could either lose his job or be a feature back. Jamison Crowder should become good soon. Jason Witten is somehow STILL good (if a little overpaid). Eli Rogers has had a lot of hype and might become good. Brandon Oliver, Vernon Davis, and Andre Holmes could all contribute. Mario Addison is an underrated beast. KJ Wright is a god. Mason Foster isn’t far behind. Richard Sherman talks a lot and has great hair. Patrick Chung and Morgan Burnett talk less and aren’t as good, but score more fantasy points. Domata Peko always plays super well against Kansas City, so in my mind he’s a top 10 DE.
I don’t know, man. This team isn’t loaded with studs at every position. There are holes. But It has enough studs, enough really good players, and enough depth to be seriously competitive. If this team was in either western division, it would be competing for a playoff spot. If this team were in either eastern division, it would be competing for a playoff spot. But you know what? The NFC North and the NFC South both suck a lot to be in.
The big danger for Green Bay is no man’s land. Detroit is not beatable this year. And with a loaded NFC South and a hungry Philadelphia, it’s not a great year for the wild card either. But starting next year, Minnesota is going to become a voracious beast and compete too. Make no mistake, this Green Bay team does have staying power with young assets, and are ahead of schedule on a rebuild – but I worry it is neither young enough, nor old enough. Of course, I said the same thing about the Houston Texans last year in this column too – and they ended up in the Super Bowl.
Chicago Bears (8-8): The monsters of the Midway, however, are lurking in the shadows. Mark my words. This team will surprise. The Bears are like the Grey Men in Robert Jordan’s the Wheel of Time (What? I’m a sci-fi nerd? You hadn’t figured that out already? Deal with it.). Your eyes run over them. You don’t really notice they are there. They seem so… normal. And then before you know it, they’ve ripped out your innards. The RDFL Bears of 2017 are like that.
You look over their roster, and they almost look… bad. I mean. Brian Hoyer? Will Tye? Terrance West? Cameron Meredith? Adolphus Washington? Nick Kwiatkowski? Andrew Adams? I mean… who?
And then you suddenly realize that Brian Hoyer is working in a Kyle Shanahan offense and throwing to decent receivers. It dawns on you that Terrance West is the unquestioned feature back on a ground and pound team. You realize that Devante Parker might be really good, and that Brandon Marshall and Matt Forte may well have one more year in them. You say “Meredith… Meredith… where have I heard that name… oh yeah, he’s suddenly the Bears #1 receiver…” You don’t realize anything about Will Tye because let’s face it, these aren’t the Lions and they still have holes – there is nothing about Will Tye to realize.
UPDATE: Cameron Meredith is done for the year. I have therefore moved the poor Bears behind GB.
But then you move on to the defense and see that Adolphus Washington and Andrew Adams could earn starting roles out of nowhere. You can’t help but think “twatkowski” and chuckle every time you see Nick Kwiatkowski’s name, so even though he isn’t likely to be that good, he adds value (also, I am not posting a picture of twatkowski). You note that Akiem Hicks and Kwon Alexander are studs, Kevin Minter is the leader in the center of the Arizona defense, AJ Bouye is good enough you want to shout “booyah!”, and Ron Parker and Da’Norris Searcy are a pair of damn good safeties. Frostee Rucker, Junior Galette, and LaMarr Houston could have value if things break right, and Terence Newman may have one more good campaign with a pick-six or two left in his ancient frame. And you start to feel alarm just as the claw slips in and Chicago rips out your innards.
This team isn’t going to dethrone the Lions. But it’s absolutely going to sneak up on people, and I honestly don’t think a playoff berth is out of the question. Pay heed to the Bears, my friends, and don’t say I didn’t warn you.
Minnesota Vikings (7-9): What do you do when you start off with a franchise team that has AP and very little else? You store up a bajillion draft picks, you go without a quarterback for three years, you lose a lot of games, and then you draft ALL. THE. PLAYERS. All of them.
The Vikings are coming to plunder a village near you. Dak Prescott is the franchise quarterback. Joe Mixon and Duke Johnson provide a bruising one-two out of the backfield. And Laquon Treadwell, Allen Robinson, and Tyler Boyd make up an intriguing wideout trio, though only Robinson has really reached his potential thus far. Jace Amaro and Kyle Rudolph are passable TEs, and Minnesota has a lot of practice squad pieces that can hopefully develop into depth.
Somewhat surprisingly given Minnesota’s self-described “lack of knowledge” on the defensive end (::cough:: ringer! ::cough::), the defensive rebuild has gone even better, bringing in guys like Reuben Foster, Myles Garrett, Joey Bosa, Harrison Smith, Vic Beasley, Phillip Gaines, Marcus Peters, Reshad Jones, Kawann Short, and Noah Spence. A couple veterans like Paul Posluz (I STILL can’t effing spell it!) nky and Eric Kendricks sprinkled in and blam – Minnesota has a spectacular defense.
One more year. One more year for Dak to move off of game management mode, Laquon Treadwell to develop, Joe Mixon to get through the rookie blues, and Jace Amaro to turn into a player. One more year for the rookies and young guys. The Vikings have 23 guys on rookie contracts. One more Wide receiver. One more year. And the rebuild will be over. Over with a capital O and a capital VER. OVER like in mother effing CRICKET over. Over like the comb in Donald Trump’s hair over. Over. In 2018, the drought ends.
So first, a shout-out. This division was awesome last year. For the first time ever, every single team in the division was competitive all the way through. There was a point late in the season last year where all four teams were vying for both the playoffs and the division title – and all four teams finished with above 500 records. It was a really remarkable division wide performance that I didn’t give nearly enough recognition to. I don’t think it will be quite as good this year, in part because I think Pittsburgh and Baltimore get a bit more separation from the Ohio teams. But it should still be a chaotic division with some definite potential for mayhem.
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6): Remember when we were talking about Indianapolis and the LA Chargers? A quarterback, a defense, and not much else? And remember how we said it didn’t work? Well, Pittsburgh is following the same model. And this is what the model looks like when it works. Ben Roethlisberger doesn’t stand alone. He also has Jarvis Landry and Le’Veon Bell. And the defense isn’t just good. It’s Grrrreeeaaatttt!
It starts with the linebackers, where Alec Ogletree, Lawrence Timmons, and Tahir Whitehead form a formidable threesome. Jared Crick, DeForest Buckner, and Brent Urban are a well above average D-line, and the secondary of Byron Maxwell, Sean Davis, Mike Mitchell, Bradley McDougald, and even Jamar Taylor are all very fantasy relevant. There really are not any critical weaknesses in these positional groups.
This team does have the same challenge as LA and Indy – a drop off in offensive quality. Roethlisberger is great (if injury prone), Bell is great (if marijuana prone), and Jarvis Landry is sort of great (but possibly prone to Jay Cutler). After that, though, they have Albert Wilson (he’s a bit of a magic wand), Ju-ju Shuster Smith (he has a bit of a magic name), and the outlaw Jesse James (who is not magic so far as I understand, but can still rob a train like nobody’s business).
Basically, this is what you have to do to be successful. Rock the defense. Rock the QB. Pick up a few studs. And round out the backside with competent players, not zeros. The Steelers have the formula, the talent, and the championship pedigree, and I see them back atop with Norris in 2017.
Baltimore Ravens (9-7): Baltimore has a fun, fun team. The type of team you may not necessarily want to have in fantasy, but that you LOVE to watch if you are a 14 year old teenager who loves nothing more than seeing lots of passing touchdowns. Big arm Joe Flacco has ZERO running game to speak of, but a cadre of young receiving options who can absolutely fly. The top four wideouts on this team are Keenan Allen, Amari Cooper, Terrelle Pryor, and Adam Thielen, with even Coby Fleener a solid pass catcher at Tight End. Can you imagine if the real life Joe Flacco had THAT kind of firepower and weaponry? I mean, we all know he’d still totally be overpaid and mediocre, but he’d be just slightly less overpaid and mediocre!
It’s fortunate, because as I said, there exists no running game. Kenneth Dixon was supposed to provide it, but that didn’t work out. As a result, the top options are Jamaal Williams, Rex Burkhead, Tarik Cohen, and Tim Hightower. Remember when Baltimore had all the running backs?
It’s a fun squad on defense too. Cliff Avril and Olivier Vernon can both get after the quarterback. At linebacker, Telvin Smith IS a stud, Terrell Suggs USED to be a stud, and Shaq Lawson WANTS to be a stud. And the secondary is decent as well, with ball hawking backs like Bradley Roby, Eric Reid, and Lardarius Webb.
Here’s what it’s going to come down to. The QB is passable. The defense is good. There is no such thing as a running back. And the depth is questionable. The strength of this team is its quartet of fast young receivers, and it is on them that Baltimore’s fortunes rest. If they are merely good, this team is a wild card contender. If they aren’t so good or catch the injury bug, the Ravens could struggle to finish .500. But if they are great like we all think they could be… the North is well within reach. We’ll see. With Jay Flacco slinging the rock, what could possibly go wrong?
Cleveland Browns (8-8): The real NFL has ruined us. We don’t think of the AFC North as a passing league. But man, should we ever. Not only is this division full of close races and competitive times, it has epic firepower.
Pittsburgh: Antonio Brown and Jarvis Landry
Baltimore: Keenan Allen, Amari Cooper, Terrelle Pryor, Adam Thielen
Cleveland: Mike Evans, Just as Mike Crabtree, Not quite as Mike Jeremy Maclin, and not at all Mike Marvin Jones.
That’s ten really really strong wide receivers, and I give Cleveland the nod to have the best of the group. That positions the offense really well. Blake Bortles may or may not be a productive quarterback for them, but Isaiah Crowell is poised to be a breakout running back this year. Erik Swoope is a hole at Tight End, and there’s no depth at all to speak of, but the starting offense is the best in the league, pound for pound.
The trick for Cleveland is that the defense is second tier. It’s not bad, not like some teams we’ve seen. The players are decent and for the most part starting caliber. Brandon WIlliams is a great nose tackle, Karlos Dansby is still an excellent linebacker, and it’s a nice secondary with Jordan Poyer, Tyvon Branch, and Joe Haden, though Haden is one of those fantastically talented real-life guys who doesn’t do quite as well in fantasy. But there are holes. And the poor holes have names. Names like Kyle Emanuel, the 5th round backup who Cleveland is looking to start at LB. Names like Nate Orchard and Tanoh Kpassagnon, two defense ends you’ve never heard of for good reason. And names like Ibraheim Campbell, who keeps the secondary from reaching an actual A rating. It’s not a terrible defense – its just simply not on the same plane as the Steelers and the Ravens – hence the third place rating.
Still, the offense has enough firepower that if things break badly for the other teams in the division, Cleveland could surprise as a playoff team, like it threatened to do for most of last year before being doomed by a brutal back-end schedule.
Cincinnati Bengals (5-11): At first glance, Cincy isn’t as flashy as the rest of the division. They do have the badly underrated T.Y. Hilton catching passes from the also badly underrated Andy Dalton. (RDFL is over before the NFL playoffs. Dalton’s decent during the regular season. Chill.) But after that, the offense doesn’t have a whole lot – Rishard Matthews, Virgil Green, Jaron Brown, Jeremy Kerley, Theo Riddick, and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Slim pickins. Certainly nothing like the high octane passing attacks they are competing with.
That said, this team is still flashy. It just comes on defense. Because the 2017 Bengals have some play-makahs! Cam Heyward, Dee Ford, Geno Atkins, Vontaze Burfict, Reggie Nelson, Vinnie Rey, and even BJ Goodson. Sacks and stuffs are coming your way if you are a fan of this team.
So why 5-11 if I like the defense that much? Well, I really don’t like the offense. And while I love the playmakers, I’m not sure I love the depth, and I definitely don’t love the secondary. It’s going to get picked apart. And you can’t get your secondary picked apart in a division with legendary receiving groups. (Yes. I know that doesn’t actually matter in RDFL. I’m writing a damn sports column. Didn’t I JUST tell you to chill? Drink a beer and appreciate the artistry.) But beyond that, guys like Burfict really haven’t put up a lot of stats from a fantasy perspective, and guys like Dee Ford haven’t put up any stats at all.
Look, it’s distinctly possible I’m too low on the Tiger Cats. If some of the offensive guys break out, and if the defense plays up and not down, they could definitely mount a challenge. And I picked them fourth last year and they led the division for half the year before finishing in a three way tie for second at 9-7. So they could certainly surprise. But the offense is so weak, and the defense has enough holes… I just don’t see it happening.
Anyway, my playoff predictions:
AFC East: Buffalo
AFC North: Pittsburgh
AFC South: Houston
AFC West: Oakland
AFC Wild Card: Kansas City
AFC Wild Card: Baltimore
NFC East: NY Giants
NFC North: Detroit
NFC South: Carolina
NFC West: Arizona
NFC Wild Card: Atlanta
NFC Wild Card: Philadelphia
AFC Championship: Buffalo over Houston
NFC Championship: Detroit over Arizona
Super Bowl: Buffalo over Detroit. It’s hard to repeat, and the Bills are due for some luck.
Like any other season of Real Deal Baseball, there have been no shortage of trades. Some teams are loading up (Miami Marlins, New York Yankees), while some are building for next year (Tampa Bay Rays).
With the playoffs around the corner (already?), we are going to focus on moves made in the past month that have the most potential impact for this year’s playoff run. Instead of providing all of the fine details in these trades, we will focus on the players that have the most impact.
Houston gets Khris Davis
In a move that helps Milwaukee replenish some of his prospects, Khris Davis goes to the Astros for Teoscar Hernandez, Jason Martin, and Jake Rogers. The latter two players were then flipped to the Cubs in a deal that brought Ervin Santana back to Milwaukee. Like Tampa Bay, the Brewers definitely have a plan for the playoffs.
New York Yankees get Brian Dozier
The Yankees, for what it’s worth, also acquired Carlos Carrasco, Jarrod Dyson, Miguel Gonzalez, and Brad Ziegler in one large trade. But its Brian Dozier who I see as having the most potential, as Dozier sits as the third best overall fantasy player behind Stanton and Machado over the past 30 days. In this deal, the Yankees sent three prospects for Dozier and a late pick. Dozier could be a difference maker come playoff time, and even right now, in the midst of a tight race with Boston for the division.
Milwaukee gets Justin Turner, Andrew McCutchen
One of a number of Tampa Bay sell off moves (He seems to have a definitive plan for next year…), this move saw Milwaukee getting Justin Turner, Andrew McCutchen, and a decent reliever in Joe Smith. Tampa Bay’s haul, as expected, was a number of prospects/young players, headlined by Blake Snell. A heavy price, perhaps, but the Brewers now have a combined (at the moment) 975 extra points in their offense, which will help going into the playoffs.
Miami gets Giancarlo Stanton
Okay, so I am cheating a bit here, in that this deal was more than a month ago, but a deal involving Giancarlo Stanton—given the season he is having—should be mentioned here. Over the past 30 days, (as of this moment) Stanton has been the best player in fantasy, averaging nearly a full point more than the next best player (Manny Machado.) He paid a steep price (Yu Darvish, Christian Yelich, and Eddy Rodriguez), but this could be a deal that has huge implications come the playoffs. As the owner of Arizona, I hope not. =)
Other notable acquisitions that could have playoff implications (Sorry if I missed any, but I tried not to):
Alright gents! It’s that time of year! We finally finished nearly two weeks of drafting and now I have to break down all of the madness and hope I don’t lose my hair in the process. While I wrote this more than 4,000-word breakdown, pre-season games happened and situations changed greatly. I make mention to a few but, for the most part, take this as a snapshot of where things stood immediately following the last pick.
The 2017 draft was a deep one, both in the NFL and in Real Deal. Starters were still being drafted in the 5th round, so most teams came away with guys that will help them now and in the future. You don’t have to squint too hard and see this draft as being a massive turning point in the league, especially with some teams working hard to consolidate as much of the talent available now as possible. If this draft turns out to be an all-timer, as some pundits have predicted, the fortunes of this portion of our game could have changed for all of us.
Without further ado, I present my draft grades and evaluation for Real Deal Ultimate Football 2017. I was going to do awards too, but this is already like 4,100 words.
Feel free to agree and email me praises. If you disagree, save it for the chat board ;).
Arizona Cardinals: B-
Best Move: Trading 1.11, 2.11, and 4.11 for Doug Martin, 2.1, and CHI 2018 1st and 3rd round picks
The Cards draft will be ultimately judged by Doug Martin. AZ got very good value in the future picks, not to mention a legitimate starter at a key position. Many are down on Martin this season, and this trade reflects his depressed value. But if Martin returns anywhere near to form once he is reinstated, Zona’s draft will be looked upon very favorably. Kamara at 2.1 could prove to be a good value and several later picks have great upside, but this draft was about Martin.
Atlanta Falcons: A
Best Move: Dalvin Cook at 1.8
I love this draft. I’m super jealous. Getting Dalvin Cook at 8th overall is an unbelievably steal. I would have never expected it to fall that way, but I’m sure ATL is happy it did. And if that wasn’t good enough, Derek Barnett as the 5th pass rusher off the board, Marshon Lattimore and Budda Baker in the 3rd round, and Isaiah McKenzie in the 6th. The pieces are there to build a very successful team in the near future. Well done.
Carolina Panthers: D
Best Move: Malik Hooker could be good enough to make us forget CAR gave up a 5th rounder to move up one spot to get him.
Sorry bruh, but when you go into a draft with 5 picks and come out with only Malik Hooker, a 7th round wideout, and a 2018 3rd, you get a D.
Chicago Bears: B-
Best Move: Tre’Davious White at 3.1
I’m going to keep the commentary on Chicago’s effort to the draft itself, although special mention has to be made to basically compiling a standout defensive unit overnight by dealing 1.1 to TOR. Beyond that move, this is one of the bigger “upside” drafts. That can be said thanks to dealing Doug Martin and future premium picks for what ended up to be Patrick Mahomes, Jamaal Martin, and Dalvin Tomlinson, none of whom will likely make a start in 2017. And David Njoku is the biggest question mark of all, a physical freak who could blossom into the next great TE or fall into the same pit as Johnny Manziel, Justin Gilbert, and all the other failed Browns first rounders. Tre’Davious White in the 3rd was a great value, and there is a metric ton of talent here. But with all that talent comes one of the more risky drafts in the league.
Cincinnati Bengals: B+
Best Move: Deshaun Watson at 1.13
(I’ll keep it brief since this was my draft, but I’m overall happy with how it turned out) Moving up to grab their guy in Watson, especially with Alex Smith living on borrowed time in KC, may turn out to be an inspired move. Allen and Shaheen represent good value where they went, and talented players like Sidney Jones (despite the redshirt season), Tim Williams, and Fabian Moreau further bolster the future prospects of a team looking to compete.
Cleveland Browns: B-
Best Move: Haason Reddick at 2.7
Cleveland was one of the few squads that went chalk, keeping and using all their picks. No future draft capital, but no lost capital this season. CLE used those picks to get solid players up and down the lineup. John Ross is already making waves in Cincinnati, Chris Wormley figures to receive good workload in BAL, and Jordan Willis was a great value in the 4th round. My favorite was the Haason Reddick pick, the rare guy who will provide value in coverage and in the pass rush, was a steal at 2.7. Knocked them down from a “B” to a “B-“ only because they tried to draft CJ Spiller like fourteen times!! LM was very forgiving.
Dallas Cowboys: C
Best Move: Acquiring Sammy Watkins and Alshon Jeffrey (although the cost was huge)
The draft was not a draft for Dallas. The picks that they held for this year and the next two years were deemed of lesser value than the chance to win today. No criticism here, but that’s the truth of the matter. The Cowboys came out of this year’s draft a markedly better team than they were going in. I hate the cost of Sammy Watkins, but they ended up with two big time WR and the top RB in the draft. They will rank highly in the coming season outlook article. But if bad luck strikes, Dallas won’t have the ability to retool in the next two seasons. Championship or bust!
Denver Broncos: C-
Best Move: Ahkello Witherspoon at 4.19
Without a first or second round draft pick, it was going to be tough to make too much noise. But IMO, Denver didn’t end up with a lot of help. Marcus Williams is a talented guy, but isn’t projected to play much early on and may have been a bit of a reach. Ahkello Witherspoon was good value at 4.19. The fact that Denver didn’t come away with a DE, even just for depth, loses them a half grade for me.
Detroit Lions: B-
Best Move: Reuben Foster at 1.16
The Cardiac Cats had an interesting draft. They made a few deals to net them additional draft capital, moving down in the 1st and grabbing two 4s for a 3rd next year. They used that capital to throw a few darts at the board, using the two 4s they got from Carolina to add not one but two QBs. Foster at 1.16 and Rivers at 2.13 were very solid picks and, while he may have been a slight reach, Taylor has a real chance to have an impact in San Francisco. Anzalone is a nice later round pick, and Donnel Pumphrey may be working his way into reps sooner than later. All in all, a nice collection of talent that fits nicely with the rest of the roster, and the PS guys represent a mixed bag of talent without much current opportunity.
Green Bay Packers: C
Best Move: Vince Biegel at 5.10
The Pack went all D with their draft, starting off with Marcus Maye with their first pick at 3.18. They ended up with two safeties, two corners, a linebacker, and a defensive tackle late. No offense, but I wasn’t a fan of their first pick. Marcus Maye certainly has a chance to produce, but safety was the lowest position of need on that side of the ball. Starting corners, including Gareon Conley and GB’s own Kevin King, were still available. They addressed the need in the 4th with Quincy Wilson, but there is less upside there. The Pack didn’t miss entirely though, nabbing a great value in pass rushing LB Vince Biegel in the 5th. Biegel was a value in the real draft as well, and fills a need for depth at the position.
Houston Texans: B-
Best Move: Acquiring Washington’s 2018 1st and 4.17 in exchange for 2.3 and their own 5th in 2018.
Houston’s draft is defined by the decision to deal the third overall pick for CJ Prosise and, most crucially, Blake Bortles. It’s the kind of trade that we’ll be looking at in two or three years and either lauding the Texans for such a bold move… or shaking our heads. There’s not really an in-between. Headliner aside, there were some really savvy moves here (curiously all with the Skins). Trading away 2.3, 4.3, and a 2018 5th for 4.17, Washington’s 2018 1st,3rd, and 2019 5th in two separate deals are the stuff Belichick’s wet dreams are made of. As far as actual players go, there was good value in Taywon Taylor at 3.3, Jake Butt at 4.17, and Tarell Basham at 5.17. All of these players should make an impact immediately, and Taylor even has a chance to make a push for HOU’s flex spot in the near future. I dinged him a half grade because I’m not a fan of Bortles, but if you are a believer consider this a “B+”.
Indianapolis Colts: B+
Best Move: Obi Melifonwu at 2.15
Say this about the Colts’ draft: they were all about this year. Before the draft was over, the Blue Horseshoe had sent two 2018 2nd and 4th rounders, a 2019 3rd , and Rishard Matthews for 1.24, 2.15, 3.9, 3.16, and another five later round picks. That’s quite a haul, and they flexed that muscle. Perine figures to be starting in Washington before long, Taco Charlton is a dynamic talent, and Obi Melifonwu could be the best pick of them all. I also loved getting Kendall Beckwith at 4.9, who enters the season the starting SAM on a dynamic defense in Tampa. Nabbing Teez Tabor all the way at 5.16 feels like icing on the cake. I don’t typically like trading away so many future assets, and I could whine about the value of some of the early rounders, but this is a very solid haul and gives Indy a very talented defense.
Los Angeles Rams: D
Best Move: Acquiring 2015 3rd rounder Chris Conley for 6.18, 6.21, and 7.21… I guess.
No offense to LAR, but this draft looked like it was run by the Rams’ real life brain trust. Granted, there wasn’t a lot to work with here, only coming into the draft with six picks total and just one before the 4th round. But coming away from what looks to be a deep draft with a 3rd string TE, and 3rd string RB, and a pair of 2015 draftees that have yet to look like anything more than rotational players is a tough sell. There were good players with starting roles left on the board, and LAR didn’t come away with any of them. Don’t mean to be rude, but… dude.
New England Patriots: A
Best Move: Myles Garrett at 1.21 (damn it)
I hate New England’s draft. And by “hate it”, I really mean “I love it and wish I did it”. Getting top overall pick Myles freaking Garrett at the 21st overall pick is such a steal it almost makes me mad. That pick going in reminds me of Tampa Bay’s GM telling the story of how every other team was trying to get their pick but they said “screw off” and nabbed O.J. Howard (go Bucs). On top of that killer pick, New England just cherry-picked great value picks. D’Onta Foreman might take the job from Lamar Miller’s corpse as soon as mid-season. Malik Hooker looks like the real deal*. And everyone let out an audible groan when Adoree’ Jackson was finally sniped at 3.5, ending all our dreams of him falling into our laps. Well done (I hate you).
*Note: Doesn’t account for Hooker’s season ending injury. Still a great pick.
New Orleans Saints: C+
Best Move: Cooper Kupp at 2.14
It may not have been a massive need, but New Orleans ensured they’ll run out a good set of WR for the foreseeable future. Mike Williams at 14th overall was a stretch for me, considering it’s possible he’ll miss most of if not all of the season; not to mention that I hate messing with back injuries. But if Williams becomes the guy the Chargers hope, it’ll be the worth the high pick and the redshirt season. Cooper Kupp at 2.14 was a great value, and he’ll likely end up the no. 2 wide out across from Sammy Watkins. Malik McDowell is extremely talented and only fell due to an offseason ATV injury, but he’s great value in the 5th. Evans and Walker didn’t represent good value for me. The biggest problem here is just that most of these guys won’t play much in 2017. Good talent, but will they play enough to be valuable to NO?
New York Giants: B
Best Move: Duke Riley at 4.20
The G-Men needed depth more than anything in this draft. They run out one of the more complete starting lineups in the league. Behind those starters leaves a bit to be desired. So it was pretty clear from 1.20 one that their goal was to find talented guys to fill out the roster at a couple of particularly shallow positions. Curtis Samuel and Carlos Henderson may have both been a little bit of a reach, but they walk into good situations that could improve their stock in a hurry. Jonnu Smith is blocked by Delanie Walker, but if he is as good as advertised could force TEN into two TE sets that would give him a chance to do some damage. It was a tough choice for best move, but I went with Duke Riley over acquiring DRC and a future 3rd. Riley expects to play frequently for a good Falcons D, and LB was one of the greater needs for the Blue. Dawaune Smoot and Trey Hendrickson were also some of my favorite late rounders.
New York Jets: B
Best Move: Evan Engram at 1.10
Jersey picks up TE (but really slot receiver if we’re all being honest with ourselves) Evan Engram with the 10th overall pick and top safety Jamal Adams at 15th. It’s a solid pair of potential playmakers that figure to be heavily involved immediately. Engram figures to hold a little more value than other TE prospects in our game as no expects him to block much. His job will be to line up near the line and be a sort of under slot receiver. To have a guy like that at TE could be very valuable. Gang Green gave up a third 1st to TOR, netting a 2018 4th, a 2019 1st and 3rd, rotational DE Kasim Edebali, and buy low Adrian Peterson. With guys like Myles Garrett still on the board, this was a risk. But if AP turns in a surprise season and that 2019 1st ends up being high, we might have a much more positive opinion of this draft.
Philadelphia Steel Men: B+
Best Move: T.J. Watt at 2.24
Philly gets a huge bump from making one of my favorite picks in the draft: T.J. Watt. To get a guy that brings that much athleticism to the table at 2.24 is beyond a steal. I’m probably playing my hand because I’d love to trade for him, but this was one of the better picks, fits, and values in the whole draft. The rest of the work done by the franchises of the state of Penn was good but not stand out. James Conner is a talented guy but a bit of a reach. Xavier Woods at 3.24 will likely compete for playing time in a weak Dallas secondary. Kittles was a big reach and has to play with Brian Hoyer. All in all, this draft is all about Watt. Philly did end up with some good future draft capital with minimal value lost as well, which bumps this draft up for me.
San Diego Chargers: A
Best Move: Solomon Thomas at 2.5
The Chargers earned their old moniker “Super” with this draft. The fact that they were able to earn one of my few A’s while also reaching for O.J. Howard at 1.4 is a testament to how many great talents and great values they picked up. Solomon Thomas is another one of my favorite picks, and that he was the 4th DE off the board is unreal. Thomas is projected to be a great all-around DE, able to produce points without big sack days. That level of consistency in our game is extremely valuable. To pair him with a guy like Takkarist McKinney, who’ll be more boom or bust, was really smart. Down the draft, Tyus Bowser should be in the running for playing time soon, DeDe Westbrook could be a spark plug for a Philly team that just lost Jordan Matthews, and Rasul Douglas was great value in the 7th. This was solid draft from top to bottom with no wasted picks.
San Francisco 49ers: B-
Best Move: Trading 1.23 in exchange for 2.19, TOR 2018 2nd, and TOR 2019 2nd
The Gold Diggers’ best moves were securing value for future years. In a trio of moves, Frisco came away with an additional 1st and 2nd in 2018, and two more 2nd rounders in 2019. It wasn’t cheap, but those moves were all about building more future value. For a team that expects to compete, this is smart. To a certain extent, the actual picks made were in this line of thinking. There was a clear priority to snag guys that don’t have a clear role now, but are expected to run with the job once they get their hands on it. Joe Williams at 1.12 is the most obvious example, playing behind a sometimes injury-riddled, sometimes ineffective Carlos Hyde. ArDarius Stewart currently has Christian Hackenberg throwing at him, so there’s precious little 2017 value to be had. Chris Godwin was never expected to be any more than the 4th wideout in Tampa. And Charles Harris, although he was a great value pick, will likely be a situational pass rusher ala’ Noah Spence in 2016 and Vic Beasley in 2015. This lack of present value knocks the draft down overall, but this is one of those grades that change big time by the end of 2020.
Seattle Seahawks: B+
Best Move: Christian McCaffery at 1.2
There may have been no bigger need met in this draft than McCaffery going to the largely RB-less Seahawks. The versatile back was in play for the 1st overall pick, and many of us even expected him to be gone before 2. But Seattle happily scooped up one of the most dynamic talents to come into the league. He walks into a fabulous situation too, with a former MVP quarterback and an option/short pass driven offense that is money in our game. Seattle followed that up by trading back into the first round and snagging potential stud linebacker Jarrad Davis from Detroit. Jabril Peppers, the positionless dynamo, went 2.2. This is a tough pick to evaluate, since we really don’t know where he’s going to settle. Right now, he’s a utility player in the truest sense. This pick may end up being brilliant, as Peppers has the speed and athleticism to produce whenever he’s on the field. He also may end up like a pitcher who hits really well: great for the real team, but not helpful for fantasy. In the meantime, I’m choosing to look at it as a smart pick. He’ll eventually settle somewhere on the field, and watch out when he does.
Tennessee Titans: C+
Best Move: JuJu Schuster-Smith at 2.9
I adjusted this write-up after learning of Spencer Ware’s likely season ending knee injury on Friday. I won’t be redoing my grade or evaluation much, but the massive swing in opinion on Kareem Hunt has to be addressed. When the once and future Oilers made this pick, I didn’t like it. A backup RB, even one who has a shot to take the job by midseason from a largely effective veteran, at 1.9 isn’t a great pick. But now that Hunt likely walks into the starting lineup, the pick looks pretty good. I maintain that I didn’t like the pick, but I can’t deny that Tennessee is sitting pretty with their 1st rounder. Schuster-Smith, whom the Steelers love and will get time in the slot next two Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant, was a great value at 2.9. He’s the kind of the guy that can have a bonkers year and take home the rookie crown. The rest of the Titans’ draft was ok, but no one really got me or their home team’s fan base excited.
Toronto Bills: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Best Move: Ummm… Mixon at 1.5? King at 3.22? I don’t know really.
I could write 3,000 words on this draft and still not have time to address everything that happened. I simply can’t break down this whole draft. I think one of the best summaries of what Toronto did here is by looking at their remaining picks in 2018 and 2019. Go ahead and look! I’ll wait. You’ll see there is one, single, lonely first rounder in 2018. Only the late Al Davis knows what it’s like to go this all-in on anything (those things by the way were speed in the draft and well done prime rib). We should’ve all known that this was going to be different right from the jump, when Corey Davis became the surprise 1.1. I had about seven guys I thought could go 1, and Davis wasn’t on the list. Mixon at 1.5 wasn’t a big reach considering how he’s viewed in fantasy circles, but if you say you expected Zay Jones to go in the top 10, you’re either lying or your Toronto’s owner. Trubisky at 18th, Marlon Mack at 23rd, Everett at 2.6, there were so many picks that I didn’t see coming. What compounds on the confusion is that the whole future was leveraged for these picks. All that said, there were some great values here. Kevin King and Gareon Conley in the back of the 3rd were great picks. And building a team in this way may have cost a ton in draft capital, but Toronto should have close to the most salary space going into the season and next off-season, giving them a huge leg up in acquiring big contracts and signing free agents. It seems to me that Toronto felt their team needed a systemic overhaul, and boy did they get it. I didn’t get it, but I’m routinely wrong. This could be mad, this could be genius, I don’t know. I do know this was easily the most fun draft of them all.
Washington Redskins: B(?)
Best Move: Acquired 1.3 in exchange for Blake Bortles and C.J. Prosise
Ok, deep breath. There’s a lot to break down here. Washington had the second busiest draft of the year, just behind our friends north of the border. The R-Words brought in a lot of talent, some I liked, some I didn’t, and some that will never actually score points for them. I’ll start with their best move, and that was acquiring 1.3 for Bortles and Prosise. Bortle’s struggles in the preseason make this look even better, and potential 1st overall pick Leonard Fournette being there makes it look unreal. But then Fournette was dealt along with Vontae Davis and Thomas Rawls for a Reshad Jones, Duke Johnson Jr., Zach Brown, and Xavier Rhodes. Turning around and dealing a selection he got just a week prior for more value was impressive, but time will tell if the haul it brought will have been worth a potential franchise player at a position that seems to always be in demand. Beyond these deals, the D.C.s brought in big talents in Golladay and Gallman, and strong values like Tanoh Kpassagnon, Shaq Griffin, and Larry Ogunjobi. They also ended up dealing a number of future picks, including next year’s 1st and 2nd rounders. I wish I had the time to break down each and every move, but all in all Washington used assets they deemed expendable to completely rebuild a much nastier defense, making them a team to fear in 2017.
Well, that’s all I have for this season’s football rookie draft. We’ll be doing season predictions soon. The moral of the story is: rejoice, for football has returned!